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The Swamp

  • #49,881
  • Jan 15, 2020 10:42am Jan 15, 2020 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu testing 200 day ema. 1155.4 {image}
lc was higher, but below 1155.4.. I normally say it will retest this high area, or more. With this being the 200, its less certain for me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,882
  • Jan 15, 2020 10:45am Jan 15, 2020 10:45am
Man, who shit on the Swissy?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,883
  • Jan 15, 2020 10:49am Jan 15, 2020 10:49am
Quoting gatorinla
Man, who shit on the Swissy?
https://www.ft.com/content/21028746-...3-9a26f8c3cba4... probably is making the eu rise also..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,884
  • Jan 15, 2020 10:49am Jan 15, 2020 10:49am
Quoting gatorinla
Man, who shit on the Swissy?
no kidding, full tank mode. SNB S.O.S this thing!
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #49,885
  • Jan 15, 2020 11:35am Jan 15, 2020 11:35am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} sometimes we have to do what we have to do... you might save your triple swaps money today
closed a little e/a 6140, and longed for 6194 tp. I plan to tp b4 lc. reload the same size at 6194ish.. then hope it rises a little more. I have some cripple longs to close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,886
  • Edited 5:46pm Jan 15, 2020 5:29pm | Edited 5:46pm
I paid 27.60 for each 1 lot in swap on eu Long today. Expensive but cheaper than it was a month ago. Let's do some math for a company hedging. First, today is triple swap. So I divided by 3. I came up with 9.97. X 7 for the week = $69.81. X 52 weeks in a year. See where I'm going? $3,630.29. In one year a 10,000 lot is reduced to $6,370.00.

Yet the eu dont fall. Anyone holding USD shorts (eu longs) comparably, is already behind the 8-ball. Losing 36% per year. Many traders here dont hold (or just dont realise they're being robbed). A international company may hedge. I hear many are not.

Many are choosing to buy treasuries against negative interest in Europe. Further pushing U.S. T-bill rates down. This dont end well. The Fed presses are working overtime with Repo . Probably to feed the conversion of foreign money to USD. So Investors can use the USD to buy t bills.
Many European Insurance , pension funds, or companies just hedging, are looking for yield. Others are buying stocks in USD.

This is a total cluster F in slow motion. There is a big demand for USD. Evident in the REPO. What happens when T bill demand pushes T bill rates nearer to 0?
What EZ tool has the ECB, asT bills get closer to the bund? That drop in t-bill rates. Caused Ez demand for t-bills. Its holding the eu up. The closer the T bill is to the Bund. The less appealing it will be for hedging.

Historically the t-bill is below 80 year lows.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,887
  • Jan 15, 2020 5:37pm Jan 15, 2020 5:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
I paid 27.60 for each 1 lot in swap on eu Long today. Expensive but cheaper than it was a month ago. Let's do some math for a company hedging. First, today is triple swap. So I divided by 3. I came up with 9.97. X 7 for the week = $69.81. X 52 weeks in a year. See where I'm going? $3,630.29. In one year a 10,000 lot is reduced to $6,370.00. Yet the eu dont fall. Anyone holding USD shorts comparably, is already behind the 8-ball. Losing 36% per year. Many traders here dont hold (or just dont realise they're being robbed). A international company...
looking to test a t-line... China deal done (fake deal)... Now it's time to ruin the Swiss and EZ. Putin's plan is working well.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,888
  • Jan 15, 2020 5:45pm Jan 15, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} no kidding, full tank mode. SNB S.O.S this thing!
No shit, the pressure is building. Who is gonna hold that thing short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,889
  • Jan 15, 2020 9:58pm Jan 15, 2020 9:58pm
  •  dmj120
  • | Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Newbie with professional aspiration | 108 Posts
Quoting Boulder
{quote} here new repo schedule.. almost same in dollar amount.. except red circle less amount....but they don't do Mondays any more.. only Tuesdays and Thursdays.. that is a start'' I will post T bill purchase next {image}
Where do you get this report, and how do you interpret it? Is there some sort of general correlation to fx pairs moves?
School of hard knocks
dmj120 Return This Year: na
  • #49,890
  • Jan 15, 2020 11:31pm Jan 15, 2020 11:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
I paid 27.60 for each 1 lot in swap on eu Long today. Expensive but cheaper than it was a month ago. Let's do some math for a company hedging. First, today is triple swap. So I divided by 3. I came up with 9.97. X 7 for the week = $69.81. X 52 weeks in a year. See where I'm going? $3,630.29. In one year a 10,000 lot is reduced to $6,370.00. Yet the eu dont fall. Anyone holding USD shorts (eu longs) comparably, is already behind the 8-ball. Losing 36% per year. Many traders here dont hold (or just dont realise they're being robbed). A international...
maybe ECB will step in to do something similar. on the other side you also see junk bond yield on historic lows.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #49,891
  • Jan 16, 2020 2:16am Jan 16, 2020 2:16am
What caused the surge in CHF???
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #49,892
  • Edited 3:33am Jan 16, 2020 3:18am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} maybe ECB will step in to do something similar. on the other side you also see junk bond yield on historic lows.
yeah they are buying junk bonds. About 1/3 of them are worthless. The eu longs are like people with a 500 credit score, holding an investment in their portfolio. With money you put on your credit card. Swissy is worse. It's like wiping my ass, b4 i poot. It's not making a lot of sense. But people have held eu longs for many months. Losing a pip a day sucks. Those people who held those 1249 shorts since August. Needed 1370 just to break even.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,893
  • Jan 16, 2020 3:41am Jan 16, 2020 3:41am
bears did break the day tl a week back, but now have to break 1069ish low. Bulls need the HH...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,894
  • Jan 16, 2020 3:51am Jan 16, 2020 3:51am
Quoting gatorinla
bears did break the day tl a week back, but now have to break 1069ish low. Bulls need the HH... {image}
i have just one long left wanted to close it on loss but i was sure today goes higher.
short position has increased. will see at list "hoping" for 1.110
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #49,895
  • Jan 16, 2020 3:55am Jan 16, 2020 3:55am
if today close below 1112 i'm going to 1070 target if not maybe 120x/2x is the target for bulls..

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  • #49,896
  • Jan 16, 2020 3:55am Jan 16, 2020 3:55am
Quoting gatorinla
bears did break the day tl a week back, but now have to break 1069ish low. Bulls need the HH... {image}
That is why i said 1181.
sorry for big chart

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  • #49,897
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:01am Jan 16, 2020 4:01am
a view of the older bear channel.. verse the newer bull channel.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,898
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:06am Jan 16, 2020 4:06am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} That is why i said 1181. sorry for big chart {image}
I thought 1169 may be needed.. But too many things in the way to give it a lot of confidence. When 1122 and 200 day is in the path.. At least it hit 1162..I thought it may bounce after 1090.. How high, was the trick to master.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,899
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:09am Jan 16, 2020 4:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i have just one long left wanted to close it on loss but i was sure today goes higher. short position has increased. will see at list "hoping" for 1.110
Yeah, a few rejects are in my net too. Thankfully they are outweighed..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,900
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:20am Jan 16, 2020 4:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I thought 1169 may be needed.. But too many things in the way to give it a lot of confidence. When 1122 and 200 day is in the path.. At least it hit 1162..I thought it may bounce after 1090.. How high, was the trick to master.
1180 is 61.8 retrace.
1182 is 127.2 AB=CD pattern.
1175 wave 1 = wave 5 EW wise.
1191 may be a bat.

I like 1181 most to thats why i go short there.
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