Disliked{quote} SP500 is in a consolidation that will be resolved if there is a decisive market driver. {image} Main factors to watch here are; 1. Trump vs Iran - Downside risk of geopolitical escalation. 2. NFP on Friday - Traders looking to evidence of economic strength 3. Trade deal with China. - Any unexpected shenanigans could way on marketsIgnored
SP500 has for the time being shrugged off events with Iran and made a new all time high. (Less potential for disruption to US oil supply now that the US has become the worlds largest oil producer.), crude prices have also retraced. I now am less concerned by Trump / Iran news bites.
Technically opportunity from pullbacks are again in play. A new support at 3253 - 3255 has been established.
Technically opportunity from pullbacks are again in play. A new support at 3253 - 3255 has been established.
Nil desperandum
The market remains strongly bullish with shallow pullbacks allowing entry to the trend. It has been the tendency in this market for retraces only to the first closest support level.
Current potential levels are support at 3311, then 3300. For price to move lower than this in the near future there will most likely need to be some significant negative event driver.
Also notice the consolidation around 3280 support. This type of price pattern / consolidation happens time and time again in this bull market environment.
Current potential levels are support at 3311, then 3300. For price to move lower than this in the near future there will most likely need to be some significant negative event driver.
Also notice the consolidation around 3280 support. This type of price pattern / consolidation happens time and time again in this bull market environment.
Nil desperandum
Multile positive factors are supporting this strong rally ( FED, decent enough earnings, low interest rates, etc). Pull backs are shallow and a trailing stop on the 1h chart a good way to take profits in this trend and capture sizable moves.
Nearest support from which I would consider entry is at 3119.
Nearest support from which I would consider entry is at 3119.
Nil desperandum
Multile positive factors are supporting this strong rally ( FED, decent enough earnings, low interest rates, etc). Pull backs are shallow and a trailing stop on the 1h chart a good way to take profits in this trend and capture sizable moves. Nearest support from which I would consider entry is at 3119. {image}
Nil desperandum
{quote} Trade triggered at 3119 with price currently oscillating between local Support and resistance. The markets reaction to the Coronavirus scare has so far been muted with potential to significantly impact sentiment. {image} {image}
Nil desperandum
Reaction to the spread of the coronavirus could be the catalyst that induces a pullback in the SP500 from the current extended level. It is now a case of wait and see the depth and duration of this pull back, then look for opportunity.
Nil desperandum
The SP500 has pulled back approx 2.5% from all time highs.
What I would like to see is a 5-10% correction to the 38.2% - 61.8% retrace of the recent strong up move. If this occurs it would provide a good opportunity for a longer term position trade.
The impact of Coronavirus on world markets which has been the catalyst for this down move is at present driven by fear and unlikely to have significant economic impact. The question is how far will markets sell off before this fear subsides and more traders move back in?
In terms of shorter term trades on the SP500, I am waiting for the sell off to end and the uptrend to resume. I have no intention of selling into this simply because risk and volatility are much higher on the downside.
What I would like to see is a 5-10% correction to the 38.2% - 61.8% retrace of the recent strong up move. If this occurs it would provide a good opportunity for a longer term position trade.
The impact of Coronavirus on world markets which has been the catalyst for this down move is at present driven by fear and unlikely to have significant economic impact. The question is how far will markets sell off before this fear subsides and more traders move back in?
In terms of shorter term trades on the SP500, I am waiting for the sell off to end and the uptrend to resume. I have no intention of selling into this simply because risk and volatility are much higher on the downside.
Nil desperandum
.however year open at 3220 could pause this sell off. a long from there with sl at 3200 tp 3280 might be good set up with worth R:R.IMHO.
Nil desperandum
- #177
- Edited 7:47am Jan 29, 2020 7:23am | Edited 7:47am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
New levels 3295 and 3267 have been printed onto the SP500 and will be useful for future reference.
SP500 has so far found support in the region of 3253 to 3267 and the 200ema on the 4h
FOMC later today may add some volatility to the mix.
.
SP500 has so far found support in the region of 3253 to 3267 and the 200ema on the 4h
FOMC later today may add some volatility to the mix.
Nil desperandum
- #178
- Jan 29, 2020 11:47am Jan 29, 2020 11:47am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
SP500 following FOMC has filled the gap down and is currently at 4h 50ema resistance around the 50% - 61.8% Fib retrace. The higher probability is to see rejection at this point and a test of the recent low.
Nil desperandum
- #179
- Jan 30, 2020 12:36am Jan 30, 2020 12:36am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
SP500 following FOMC has filled the gap down and is currently at 4h 50ema resistance around the 50% - 61.8% Fib retrace. The higher probability is to see rejection at this point and a test of the recent low. {image}
SP500 retraced to the recent low during the US afternoon session and followed through in the Asian session. Some corporate earnings have missed target and concern regarding the economic impact of Coronavirus was highlighted by the FED.
From where price is now a second leg down to 3200 support is a distinct possibility and would be a welcome pullback to more comfortable levels to enter the market. If price holds at around the current level, 3295 will become significant.
Nil desperandum
The US session pushed price back up to 3300. There is the possibility of a double bottom here or further consolidation. Either way I am sitting out and waiting to see how the Coronavirus spread develops over the weekend. The SP500 has been remarkably resilient over the past few months, if price breaks above 3300 from here and completes a double bottom pattern this would suggest a continuation to new highs.
Nil desperandum