daily range Strategy

I've traded another breakout strategy called Hans123 for about 6 months or so. Perhaps you are familiar with it. It wasn't doing too bad. It was excelent during the trend and it didn't loose too much during the range. The one problem I had with it though, is that it set it's entry levels based on previous 4 hours high and low right at London open and NY open. So, of course when the market is mostly ranging, the price would get up to the entry level, put you into a trade and then reverse and go back. Your method is of course different where you set your level at 20 pips no matter what. Also, I think the 3 lot thing really helps to put the odds in your favor. At least I can say that based on the results that you provided I can see that you were making profits when that other system wasn't, and when there was a trend both systems were killing. So that's a good sign.

anyone here to answer my question? just 2 hours remaind to
interest rate statement news. i must close the position manually
or leave them?

Right Mercardo, and I think the stop loss issue is a difficult one because we would have to be watching the market from the point of entry until close to see what is hit first, profit or stop loss. Right now I would just go with the results of your backtesting, as that is certainly sufficient, and try it with demo trades for awhile.

No reason to get overly excited, swear, and rant and rave, as far as I can see. People normally hear us better if we are calm and reasonable, and if we do not appear to have a chip on our shoulders. I won't be replying any further to any of your posts, leaving you the last word if you prefer.

I think it would be really beneficial to have an MT Script for backtesting in which one could specify certain system parameters e.g.:
1) starting point e.g. 00:00 GMT, 5 pm EST etc
2) straddling points e.g. 20, 30, 50 etc pips from opening price
3) TP
4) SL
5) ???

Can someone tell what time is the london open and close and the New York open and close in EST or GMT

Thanks

Check this out :

www.worldmarkethours.com

FT

Thanks fingo

koohyar, sorry this is late. It is your own judgement call. His method doesn't use the news really.

OK here are my results for the past 5 days....

Thursday - +30
Friday - +30
Monday - +30
Tuesday - -50
Wednesday - +30 (At 00:01 Thursday, was still in trade so moved stop to within 5 pips and left to run)

Early Days but lets see....

I also have started a demo test with this strategy, with a slight variation, and these are my results so far.

I have been substituting the 50pip rule start point with 20 pips and target is 30 pips.

i.e.

GMT + 1 (UK time approx 1.15am) price 1.8795

place long order @ 1.8815 SL 1.8785
place short order @ 1.8775 SL 1.8805

So far it has worked very well for the 4 days testing (+30 every day) but only time will tell. I am new to this forum having only just discovered it and would like to thank Micardo for his strategy and everyone else here for their input.

I'm in the UK and our clocks change from BST (british summer time) to GMT this coming weekend. Does anyone know if EST changes? My charts are all based on EST.

Thanks

Hello all,

Executed my first GBP Range trade last night:

Long 3 filled at 1.8808, S/L at -30

T/P on 1 at +20
T/P on 2 at +30
T/P on 3 at +63 (moved up from original T/P)

Nice!

Thanks to all here.

Nice People Nice,

I think its important that we all post our results so we can all see which variation is most profitable.

My trade was automatically closed today at 30 points profit which puts me at 100 points profit since last week.

I will start to look at diffenerent profit levels with multiple lots

Ianj,<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

<o></o>

I would watch your risk reward ratio here with 30 pip stop. If you stopped here on all 3 orders you have a 90 pip loss + spread (105). Toady was a good day for this strategy but you will get choppy days. You have to protect you losses and concentrate on your winnings second. My experience was that a 20 pip stop placing an order 20 pips from the <?xml:namespace prefix = st2 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st2:City w:st="on"><st2lace w:st="on">London</st2lace></st2:City> open was normally enough once orders were filled. Most of the time when orders were stopped out it moved the other way, breaking 20 pips below the London open. <o></o>

<o></o>

Risk - 90 pips + spread<o></o>

Your example reward - 20, 30, <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "QV10" /><st1:bcv_smarttag w:st="on">63 - 113</st1:bcv_smarttag>
<st1:bcv_smarttag w:st="on"></st1:bcv_smarttag>
<st1:bcv_smarttag w:st="on">In the example you posted you will probably need to win 50% of the time with full reward to be profitable. </st1:bcv_smarttag><o></o>
<o></o>

Of course in this strategy you can have partial losses and partial wins. But the above is just something to consider. <o></o>

<o></o>

Does this strategy get full reward 50% of the time? (I would say NO) <o></o>

<o></o>

Is this strategy profitable protecting your losses and managing your wins collecting at profit levels and moving stops? (From my experience, yes over the last 5 months with a 20 pips stop).<o></o>



<o></o>

Just my humble opinion. <o></o>

<o></o>

Cheers<o></o>

<o> </o>

Markj,

It looks like you left both sides of the straddle on for a while. Did you remove the other side at some point, like when you took profit on the final order from the first side?

Also, did you figure out if it is more profitable to leave both sides on, or to remove the other side as soon as one side opened?

I did some manual backtesting a few days ago with a strategy that would place a stradle 20 pips away and then simply go for 20 TP and 20 SL, and what I found was that there was absolutely no benefit in keeping both sides out there. I made exactly the same number of pips if I kept it, or if I removed it as soon as one side opened. At least that's what I was able to figure out over the last 2.5 month of data. Not sure if it would be the same with your strategy.

Disclaimer:
This is a spontaneous idea and post. If you're crazy enough to actually put real money on anything that's written by some guy on a forum, at least
1. don't blame the guy for any outcome that comes from this
2. know why you are doing.
Basically I am saying this is more academic than anything.
I am not responsible for what you do after reading this.

---------------------

The IDIOT system

Hi all and welcome to the The Interesting Daily Intricate Opening Trade System.
While you might think I am trying to poke fun at you here, and I might or not be, I may have just stumbled across the most dumbfoundingly simple way to trade cable
Since I am not a big man of many words, let me get right to it:

At midnight in GMT+2 (or at least I think I am in GMT+2, just assume Berlins timezone), you place a straddle on cable's opening price of the 1H bar for that time.
Basically should be the same as the daily close, can vary 1-2 pips. I go off 1h.

The straddle goes like this:
30 pips above and below the opening price of the 1H candle/bar for midnight you put buy and sell orders in that direction(below the price short, above the price long. Don't forget to add your spread).
You then put the stop at the opposite orders entry price (so roughly a 60 pip stop).
You then set a limit for either 100 or 140 or 200 or 240 pips away. Or you can complicate it to heck and back with indicators and fibs, be my guest.

After looking back about 4 weeks, I can safely say that if one of the two orders gets triggered, one of two things happens:
1. The trade moves 100-240+ pips in your direction and you get a good R/R on the stop size.
2. The trade moves about 10-40 pips in your favor, then comes all the way back and continues the other way. It will almost certainly move in your favor first.

Obviously nobody will have issues with case 1, and for case 2 it's rather simple: use a 60 pip trailing stop, not a fixed one. That way you lose less.
You can also move up the stop to breakeven if you're anal about it, but that might just stop you out of trades early that then move on quite a bit.
Losing is normal and natural and hence the take profit / limit points should at least be 150% of the stop size. Hence 100 pips being the smallest suggested.

Well, er, that's it. Straddle away every day, make money, make some hay.
Best application of how MM and risk management works for you in application ever.
I came up with this because all these indicator based systems are just making me sick sick sick and this works at least as well as any bagosidomoutekisilvertigerfireriderwaterspoutermysticrivershijiujitsutunnelaikenshiakirawhatever.
Also it gets tiresome to read a new thread every day asking "where do you think GBPUSD is headed"(with this it just plainly doesn't matter).

Backtest this yourself(As in manually, not automated. Just use the crosshair.) on the MT4 charts on 1h if you think it's too silly to work
Should at least work until the 300+ pips a day moves return for cable and then all you need to do is toss in cash anyway

Good luck and remember, we can all be IDIOTs if we just try hard enough!

SeekingLight


P.S. If you are one of the persons that needs a reason as to WHY this works, I can offer you that most of the time that time area makes an inside bar and basically it's a straddle of just that(which is indeed valid)...oh and if you need an MT4 demo that's in that timezone, MigFX and Nextt are.

P.P.S. Included fully mechanically backtested October via template, made on MigFX demo. PL ends up +210 with a theoretical open trade at +50 atm. Just open a GBPUSD chart in MigFX demo and load the template, it's fully labeled. 60 trailing stop loss was used, 100 fixed take profit point. PL should be a bit lower due to spread not being included almost ever. Saw at least two trades that wouldn't have been entered the wrong direction had one used 35 pips + spread instead of 30 distance. Further tweaking is more usefull with an automated program that would examine standard deviation to both sides from that offset. Don't look at me, I can't do that sort of thing.

Ikholod,

I would set two 3 lot orders at London open. Lets assume the London open was 18800, set 3 lot orders to buy 18820, set 3 lot orders to sell at 18780.
Lets say the first price gets to 18850 after breaking through the 18820 price. I would take profit one and two of the table and set profit three to brakeven. If the price then moves to 18854 before retracing to 18820 profit three would be closed out.

If price then went done to 18780 sell orders would be place, if price moved only to 18760 then retraced to 18820 then only profit one would be collected, profit two and three would be closed out.

If price then pushed back through 18820 again I would place 3 buy lot orders again. If price then reached 18900 then I would take all three profits of the table. If 3rd order was still there but hadn't reached 80 pips profit by NY close then this order would be closed for whatever profit is on the table.

Result
First move = 14 + 30 + 0 = + 44
Second move = + 14 - (-20) - (-20) = (- 26)
Third move = 14 + 30 + 80 = 124

Total daily pips = 164 - 26 = 138

So the first orders are placed at the London open and left if both of these are hit proceeding orders are placed throughout the day if conditions are met. I my strategy I did not just take one 3 lot for the day, it could be upto 4 or 6.

Hope helps

Cheers

hey there seeking light...

nice to see that there's someone who thinks along the same lines as me! i have been trying to find a "system" that doesn't require any complicated indicators, and is proven to have a positive expectancy, and to this end i have been experimenting with a similar method (also on GBPUSD) which i believe can be likened to an opening range breakout (please feel free to correct me if i'm wrong)...

my understanding as to why this method works is that regardless of the trend, GBPUSD will tend to put in, on the average, a 120 pip range for the day. and since there are only 2 possible ways it can go, a straddle frees us from having to correctly decide on the direction. btw, this fella named Micardo has a thread on a method similar to this, i believe it's called the Daily Range Method or something like that. anyway, the only difference in what i came up with is the TP. i was thinking that, since most of the time, the trade will move 10 pips in your direction, why not take the 10 pips? i know that there will be a tendency to leave a lot of pips on the table, but if we can come up with a method that will practically guarantee 10 pips a day, we can just increase lot sizes (and therefore profits) exponentially. or, 10 pips on 5 lots, then trailing stop on the rest hehe. i hope you don't mind me sharing my ideas.

Ah, oops, so I made a third clone.

Well, it was worth it for the title

Anyway, goes to show that if you can come up with something, someone else prolly already did as well.

Nevermind then, but hey, it's the thought that counts

At least I took r/r into consideration

I'll leave it to the other daily range thread then....maybe we should just delete this one *leaves it up to smjones*

It was a glorious 5 Minutes while they lasted!

*rides off into sunset on his Jolly Jumper...*

Maybe you could re-name the other thread "The Idiot Daily Range Strategy"