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  • #5,701
  • Jan 6, 2020 5:18am Jan 6, 2020 5:18am
Crude oil, selling rally ?

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post12689317
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #5,702
  • Jan 6, 2020 5:47am Jan 6, 2020 5:47am
Quoting kuroro001
Crude oil, selling rally ? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post12689317
Hey K....Hope youre Good

Its reached some upside targets so expecting some pullback before any serious follow through, short term wouldnt be selling this thing just yet, we have just kept breaking higher highs and gained momentum with every pullback...so for now more interested in long setups.....
Looking for pullbacks towards 63.12 handle for upward continuation...


just my 2cents worth...
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  • #5,703
  • Edited 7:56am Jan 6, 2020 6:31am | Edited 7:56am
Like a gift from the sky this gap close at 63.04
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yes yes yes
  • #5,704
  • Jan 6, 2020 7:57am Jan 6, 2020 7:57am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hey K....Hope youre Good Its reached some upside targets so expecting some pullback before any serious follow through, short term wouldnt be selling this thing just yet, we have just kept breaking higher highs and gained momentum with every pullback...so for now more interested in long setups..... Looking for pullbacks towards 63.12 handle for upward continuation... just my 2cents worth...
Price has dipped low enough for the desired entry level now....
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,705
  • Edited 9:39am Jan 6, 2020 8:11am | Edited 9:39am
Crazy oil, 3 percent up and then down
the gapis closed
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yes yes yes
  • #5,706
  • Jan 6, 2020 8:25am Jan 6, 2020 8:25am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hey K....Hope youre Good Its reached some upside targets so expecting some pullback before any serious follow through, short term wouldnt be selling this thing just yet, we have just kept breaking higher highs and gained momentum with every pullback...so for now more interested in long setups..... Looking for pullbacks towards 63.12 handle for upward continuation... just my 2cents worth...
Very good and you man ?

i'm chancing small shorts as we go up, so far in profit. My ideal target would be 59

But 61 is another level i'm looking at

If you look at the h4 we have crazy divergences on the way up
But when i look at the COT dealers/money, it tells me they are shorting rallies

Time will tell
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #5,707
  • Jan 6, 2020 8:42am Jan 6, 2020 8:42am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Very good and you man ? i'm chancing small shorts as we go up, so far in profit. My ideal target would be 59 But 61 is another level i'm looking at If you look at the h4 we have crazy divergences on the way up But when i look at the COT dealers/money, it tells me they are shorting rallies Time will tell
Maybe.....we need to also bare in mind that the upside targets for the day were reached from the open, so some sort of consolidation before it gets going....glad you managed to bag some though....lets see how we close and how it behaves when the new numbers get printed....



Greeneries
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  • #5,708
  • Jan 6, 2020 8:58am Jan 6, 2020 8:58am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Maybe.....we need to also bare in mind that the upside targets for the day were reached from the open, so some sort of consolidation before it gets going....glad you managed to bag some though....lets see how we close and how it behaves when the new numbers get printed.... Greeneries
Thanks,

I'm taking profits as we go down.
And will keep on shorting rallies, every h4 bearish divergence i'll do it.

We are on an intraday support now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #5,709
  • Jan 6, 2020 10:48am Jan 6, 2020 10:48am
It seems like if we hold above the recent highs made after the Saudi drone strikes, there's plenty of reasons to believe that we could retest the prior highs around the $67 level. As long as uncertainty related to war/military actions between US and Iran persists, strength in oil should continue. I don't see a peaceful resolution coming anytime soon.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #5,710
  • Jan 6, 2020 10:59am Jan 6, 2020 10:59am
Quoting EventsTrader
It seems like if we hold above the recent highs made after the Saudi drone strikes, there's plenty of reasons to believe that we could retest the prior highs around the $67 level. As long as uncertainty related to war/military actions between US and Iran persists, strength in oil should continue. I don't see a peaceful resolution coming anytime soon. {image}
Hey ET...


Geopolitics aside, i wanna see how the D1 closes up.
But on the H1, so long as this remains intact, with the 200 acting supportive, i remain net bullish...my sentiment will change once we see it break and close below that supportive line and create a lower low on the chart...till then, buy dip remain the route of preference on my book
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,711
  • Jan 6, 2020 3:16pm Jan 6, 2020 3:16pm
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  • #5,712
  • Jan 6, 2020 5:44pm Jan 6, 2020 5:44pm
Quoting prashfx
{quote} fyi last time we had such degree of backwardation in the mkt .. talking of brent here .. spot was trading 77-79 and the reason back then in 2018 was Iran only. I am not saying that spot will move there but the mkt is very vulnerable to go higher esp looking at the backwardation (high bkwardation environment has a tendency ti pull up spot prices .. bkwardation feeds bkwardation .. and same for contango). will see how it moves next week.
as expected the massive bkwardation was sold aggressively yest. brent spot wise that 70.70 number is imp on daily close basis which makes sense why it got turned even in asia hrs. gg fwd brent rally needs 65$ to hold on technical basis but technical has its own limitations. but crossing 70.70 on daily close basis wud need some kind of further trigger -- demand side // opec production side // fed sde // manufacturing etc.

bigger picture 66-66.50 is the neckline of this weekly H&S ..so as far as around there holds and we get a push past 70.70 then ultimate target might be around 77-79.

but loads of assumptions etc there. even a news like lack of progress in us-china deal can jolt the mkt in which case spot wud come bk to fundamental 64-66 support and then shud be perhaps good buy.
  • #5,713
  • Jan 6, 2020 9:06pm Jan 6, 2020 9:06pm
Quoting prashfx
{quote} as expected the massive bkwardation was sold aggressively yest. brent spot wise that 70.70 number is imp on daily close basis which makes sense why it got turned even in asia hrs. gg fwd brent rally needs 65$ to hold on technical basis but technical has its own limitations. but crossing 70.70 on daily close basis wud need some kind of further trigger -- demand side // opec production side // fed sde // manufacturing etc. bigger picture 66-66.50 is the neckline of this weekly H&S ..so as far as around there holds and we get a push past 70.70...
im still net bullish bud......

Will be looking at the following levels for today
65.5
64.18
63.95
63.47
61.96
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,714
  • Edited 11:23pm Jan 6, 2020 10:24pm | Edited 11:23pm
Attachment g
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yes yes yes
  • #5,715
  • Jan 7, 2020 2:14am Jan 7, 2020 2:14am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} im still net bullish bud...... Will be looking at the following levels for today 65.5 64.18 63.95 63.47 61.96 {image}
Update: Supportive "Box" still intact
expecting some pullback near the 63.89 handle...will take partial profits there about and continue to buy dips as and when it gets back towards the entry line...
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,716
  • Jan 7, 2020 6:57am Jan 7, 2020 6:57am
WTI looks like it may pop north, been struggling to go lower.
  • #5,717
  • Jan 7, 2020 8:36am Jan 7, 2020 8:36am
Quoting Kwame Freder
WTI looks like it may pop north, been struggling to go lower.
The rejections to the bottom are telling....but unless we get some serious buying volume whenever it pops up, it seems like the bullish movement will be limited....but the support base is intact
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,718
  • Jan 7, 2020 8:40am Jan 7, 2020 8:40am
refuse to short this thing for now. its way too bouncy for me, down move feels like such a struggle, almost like they are driving it down to buy at a discount
  • #5,719
  • Jan 7, 2020 11:00am Jan 7, 2020 11:00am
Quoting Kwame Freder
refuse to short this thing for now. its way too bouncy for me, down move feels like such a struggle, almost like they are driving it down to buy at a discount
Box still intact in terms of support at the moment.....
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,720
  • Jan 7, 2020 11:56am Jan 7, 2020 11:56am
Any clues about the upcoming API data ?
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