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The Swamp

  • #49,181
  • Dec 31, 2019 3:48pm Dec 31, 2019 3:48pm
Quoting longfellow
The ban on gator products in California has been placed on hold by a federal judge. So looks like I'll still be able to visit The Swamp next year. Cheers!
I feel better now..
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  • #49,182
  • Dec 31, 2019 5:15pm Dec 31, 2019 5:15pm
The close is back below 1209 after testing August high levels. August was on the downswing after testing the 1209 level. Then the October low was interrupted by the Fed's balance sheet increasing each week. Plus a few cuts. Boulder's method is bullish on most time frames up to the day. The Fed is still increasing, but things dont move in straight lines.

1209 is still an all time fib on eu. Something managed to push it below just before closing today's month. 2 minutes before closing. It looks like 1152 is coming. 1139, 1109, or 1058 is possibly coming. If the week closes below 1188, the odds increase. 1209 is an old number. I would think most dont see it, unless they have a decent amount of info. Of course, I may be full of shit. It could just be coincidence, at the last 2 minutes.

With the Fed easing, taking out the low is harder. At some point the demand for Repo should lessen. When or if is unknown. If it does, the burden to rise will decline. Not there yet. So 1109/1152 may be areas to buy or scalp. Anything close to 1.0878 is subject to bounce while the Fed is here. The swap should still have the drip drip effect to favor shorts. But it will have to find its equilibrium level first. The last 2 minutes has shown a little hope for August highs with the -1209 close. +-1188 would be some help on week close, for either side indication. I thought it was going to close above 1209 earlier. It fooled me. The 1 year closed below, unless the gap opens above. This is where it gets tricky w/o a central close that all use.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12680008
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  • #49,183
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:19pm Dec 31, 2019 7:19pm
Look at dollar chart atm

12/31/2019 8:20 pm est.. wow.. still move up
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  • #49,184
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:34pm Dec 31, 2019 7:34pm
Quoting Boulder
Look at dollar chart atm 12/31/2019 8:20 pm est.. wow.. still move up {image}
if true, this is probably 100 + pips drop on eu. A nice gap could be in the making. If true, those last 2 min on eu make good sense
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,185
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:45pm Dec 31, 2019 7:45pm
this sight sucks (unreliable) .. but it does show a 15 pip drop after close.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,186
  • Dec 31, 2019 8:03pm Dec 31, 2019 8:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if true, this is probably 100 + pips drop on eu. A nice gap could be in the making. If true, those last 2 min on eu make good sense {image}
If true, lots of misery for usd shorts.. eu looks to have a large gap down. The gap down would be below 1174, a month number i was using. It would be below the 200 day also.
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  • #49,187
  • Dec 31, 2019 8:57pm Dec 31, 2019 8:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If true, lots of misery for usd shorts.. eu looks to have a large gap down. The gap down would be below 1174, a month number i was using. It would be below the 200 day also. {image}

Would be good to see below 200 day
  • #49,188
  • Dec 31, 2019 9:10pm Dec 31, 2019 9:10pm
Quoting fxmajsterek
{quote} Would be good to see below 200 day
still going up..9709 is a 50% retrace. eu is more than 50% of usdx.. eu retrace could be 130+ pips now. That would fit the 1109 eu level posted earlier.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,189
  • Dec 31, 2019 9:44pm Dec 31, 2019 9:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still going up..9709 is a 50% retrace. eu is more than 50% of usdx.. eu retrace could be 130+ pips now. That would fit the 1109 eu level posted earlier. {image}
Why such a spike?
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #49,190
  • Jan 1, 2020 2:53am Jan 1, 2020 2:53am
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} Why such a spike?
good question, if you adjust your time to NY time, you will see that it keept above 97 just about the final last hours of the day, a few minutes after 00:00 it was “allowed” to drop again...

So maybe someone needed to keep up the exchange rate for some fiscal reasons? /closing end of years books reason?
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  • #49,191
  • Edited 6:03am Jan 1, 2020 5:50am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} Why such a spike?
My guess is the Fed was not doing Repo on Jan 1 (U.S. holiday). So the overnight usd demand pushed usd up. Without Fed intervention. This may be a peek behind the curtain. The Fed may be back to feed the demand. We can see what may happen if they didnt manipulate it so much. This was happening massive in 2007/2008 too. The Fed sends usd to other central banks overnight to keep the ponzi scheme afloat. Without it, the usd liquidity would dry up for some banks. The Fed is increasing its balance sheet (usd dilution).

Behind the curtain, the usd is much stronger than it appears. You may be able to look at the balance sheet to see "who got the money." Last time, New Zealand got a bunch.. This time, NZ is growing again. Most central banks were closed. This spike was caused by the few Banks, open in the Asian session. After U.S. markets closed.

The Fed is giving other countries a form of QE.


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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,192
  • Jan 1, 2020 6:35am Jan 1, 2020 6:35am
Quoting hans91
{quote} So first going to 1.13xxx then to 1.08xxx? That's very good if it will drop for almost 500 pips. But we will see if that's is right or not.

maybe, maybe not.. I thought 1.1179 was enough of a retracement until voting day spiked it to 1.12 then I realised 1.12 would be tested again and broken - I wrote in previous posts... I can’t predict markets And therefore get immediate direction wrong many times but overall target does usually reach. I am no Elliottician to be able to understand the video I linked to - it’s sub waves and how they work - too many possibilities...

but the way I read charts, I have reason to believe markets will end up at a certain price point - it all the time. I know GU has a date with 1.50 and sub 1.19. I can’t say which will be hit first.

EU has a date with 1.0878 and shouldn’t exceed 1.16

GJ needs to hit 139 - but also has a date with 150
  • #49,193
  • Jan 1, 2020 7:18am Jan 1, 2020 7:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still going up..9709 is a 50% retrace. eu is more than 50% of usdx.. eu retrace could be 130+ pips now. That would fit the 1109 eu level posted earlier. {image}
Will be such a beauty to see price open anywhere near 11500. Lol... I sold 1.1238 and interestingly enough it was around the current top. Such open at the bottom would make my day.
  • #49,194
  • Jan 1, 2020 9:19am Jan 1, 2020 9:19am
a large drop in the last few minutes now. Its still up since close atm
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  • #49,195
  • Jan 1, 2020 9:23am Jan 1, 2020 9:23am
Quoting gatorinla
a large drop in the last few minutes now. Its still up since close atm {image}
oh well, its back up in a minute.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,196
  • Jan 1, 2020 9:27am Jan 1, 2020 9:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} oh well, its back up in a minute. {image}
and back down a minute later.. big moves in a short period of time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,197
  • Jan 1, 2020 9:54am Jan 1, 2020 9:54am
some support 96.22... it looks like it's to be tested, or 9746.. The smaller 9709 norm was tested earlier. Solid lines are norm with current low. ...... lines are sub norm retraces (estimated minimum area if solid hold). blue is what happened since close
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,198
  • Jan 1, 2020 12:08pm Jan 1, 2020 12:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
some support 96.22... it looks like it's to be tested, or 9746.. The smaller 9709 norm was tested earlier. Solid lines are norm with current low. ...... lines are sub norm retraces (estimated minimum area if solid hold). blue is what happened since close {image}
back to where the day closed..
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  • #49,199
  • Edited 1:17pm Jan 1, 2020 12:37pm | Edited 1:17pm
2018 higher than 2017 close. 2019 above 2018.. not much distance, almost doji..it would look pinbar on top. green, but not impressive for bulls. 150 pin on the bottom, 300 pip on top. The body only 50 green pips. Eu 2019 closed below 2018, about 254 pip below.
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  • #49,200
  • Jan 1, 2020 1:45pm Jan 1, 2020 1:45pm
Guys seems like other sources have had a misprint.... highs on DXY 96.534 according to Reuters.
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