The Swamp | Page 2456 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #49,101
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:32am Dec 29, 2019 8:32am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Yes Oanda paid 6x swaps yesterday for EurUsd shorts.. I trade LMX and Axitrader too , LMX paid regular but Axitrader negative swaps on EurUsd shorts yesterday.. .. ...
Add ICmarket was a normal swap on eu. Ic paid 4.89, while LMax 5.29 per lot. Axitrader a -15.6 per lot. Oanda paid $56.61. A 72$ difference between Oanada and AXI, something has to be wrong.Oanda looks to have added a decimal over Lmax and IC
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,102
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:48am Dec 29, 2019 8:48am
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} Anybody get paid a GIANT swap from Oanda today?? I did for some reason. Strange... no way to really know what swap is each day anymore.... {image} {image}
I broke one down on a account, just containing eu short trades. I divided the paid amounts by number of lots. It was a little different. I dont know why. (56.61)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,103
  • Dec 29, 2019 11:50am Dec 29, 2019 11:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} week support ending up at 1065.8, pa closed above some. So a bounce to the lower 1104 ish area wouldn't be out of bounds. second line 1119, third 1132 (chart). Bears would like the to continue to close below 1102 on the day, and need the week below 1065.8. The day closing below 1065.8 would be a start. Eventually reaching 1028x/29. With pa range the last 6 months as a indicator. It could take a few days. Since the week didnt close below 1065, pa may be somewhat bullish. I will not be automatically be ready to short. I have red shorts. So...
Friday's area is still on the bearish side of my "oh shit" scenario. Its is above the 200 day. It has done that in the past and fell below later. This bounce along with the Fed pumping the usd lower is testing the "oh shit line". Don't be a hero if pa starts closing above 1203. 1175 is another one bulls need to close above. Final tl is 123x.. I'm not saying it wont drop from here based on charts. I'm saying the Fed is not helping. A b/o could yield 147x. Scalpers can ignore me. Position wise eu bulls may chose to wait for 1029. It eventually happens most times before 147x.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 67 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,104
  • Dec 29, 2019 11:59am Dec 29, 2019 11:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Add ICmarket was a normal swap on eu. Ic paid 4.89, while LMax 5.29 per lot. Axitrader a -15.6 per lot. Oanda paid $56.61. A 72$ difference between Oanada and AXI, something has to be wrong.Oanda looks to have added a decimal over Lmax and IC
Yeah my swap was definitely off this week
  • #49,105
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:12pm Dec 29, 2019 12:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Friday's area is still on the bearish side of my "oh shit" scenario. Its is above the 200 day. It has done that in the past and fell below later. This bounce along with the Fed pumping the usd lower is testing the "oh shit line". Don't be a hero if pa starts closing above 1203. 1175 is another one bulls need to close above. Final tl is 123x.. I'm not saying it wont drop from here based on charts. I'm saying the Fed is not helping. A b/o could yield 147x. Scalpers can ignore me. Position wise eu bulls may chose to wait for 1029. It eventually...
I may be seeing unicorns in the clouds. At the same area a up tilting wedge may have formed. If the upper level would hold, and a break in the bottom. This could be a bearish wedge formation. We won't know till its hindsight. the yellow line within it is in the 1174 area. 1174 is a previous s area on the way down..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 63 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,106
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:29pm Dec 29, 2019 12:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I may be seeing unicorns in the clouds. At the same area a up tilting wedge may have formed. If the upper level would hold, and a break in the bottom. This could be a bearish wedge formation. We won't know till its hindsight. the yellow line within it is in the 1174 area. 1174 is a previous s area on the way down.. {image}
And there could be the potential pink wedge, within the wedgie. I was gonna post a video, butt it was too much wedge. I didnt know it was a college initiation thing. I miss the good ole days of pantie rading. https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...dgie+underware
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 87 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,107
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:32pm Dec 29, 2019 12:32pm
if you get a chance, this wedgie thing is a big sport in some dorms.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,108
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:51pm Dec 29, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
if you get a chance, this wedgie thing is a big sport in some dorms.
omg... you need to control yourself....lol,,,
  • #49,109
  • Dec 29, 2019 4:44pm Dec 29, 2019 4:44pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} omg... you need to control yourself....lol,,,
just trying to keep up with the new fads.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,110
  • Dec 29, 2019 5:32pm Dec 29, 2019 5:32pm
Possible gartley forming on daily on 1.13-ish.
quallity is not great.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.....Daily.png Size: 68 KB
  • #49,111
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:02pm Dec 29, 2019 8:02pm
Quoting longshot_nl
Possible gartley forming on daily on 1.13-ish. quallity is not great. {image}
This is the furthest its been above the 200 ema day since June (+50 pips above held it twice). 1203/06 area. week wise, 1288 close side. week held 1188 Friday. eu all time chart wise, maybe 1209.7.. Bulls have the ball, if bulls dont respect these. I will have to cut some bait.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 95 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,112
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:09pm Dec 29, 2019 8:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This is the furthest its been above the 200 ema day since June (+50 pips above held it twice). 1203/06 area. week wise, 1288 close side. week held 1188 Friday. eu all time chart wise, maybe 1209.7.. Bulls have the ball, if bulls dont respect these. I will have to cut some bait. {image}
pa is reaching near the upper wedge.. It may be worth zooming in on smaller time frames.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 65 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,113
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:40pm Dec 29, 2019 8:40pm
pa is in the 1203 area.. this is where it turned the other highs since last year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,114
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:49pm Dec 29, 2019 8:49pm
interested to know what is the actual reason behind the USD weakness , to me this is looking rather more of a low liquidity move because its so one-sided....
and looking at some libor swap spreads, (precursor for fed's upcoming action), and the swap spread of 3y-1y, is only -11 bps atm meaning not enough for any rate cuts...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,115
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:58pm Dec 29, 2019 8:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
pa is in the 1203 area.. this is where it turned the other highs since last year.
USD still holding itīs neck (literally). But keep an eye on it. https://invst.ly/par32
  • #49,116
  • Dec 29, 2019 9:32pm Dec 29, 2019 9:32pm
40pip Asian session. The dollar is nearing the end of its glory run. EU 1.50 by 2022 is my guess. Check the DXY chart starting from the 1985 high and use 2017 high to connect a trendline. The weekly is rejecting heavily after we clipped it in August and September. If EU holds below 1.122, I think the bulls will subside until we get back to 1.10 or lower. UJ seeing bearish pressure as well but 1.10 still waiting. Risk off trends may start by middle of January.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: longterm.png Size: 134 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklyrespect.png Size: 109 KB


Funny how when the trendline of the highs of 1985 and 2002 were broken out in 2015, we see rate hikes starting exactly 1 year later. Opposite effect in August 2008 1 year after cuts started in Aug 2007. As soon as cutting began DXY broke from its 6 year down trend exactly 1 year later. FOMO and large scale telecommunication at its finest.
  • #49,117
  • Dec 29, 2019 9:32pm Dec 29, 2019 9:32pm
Quoting AirmanFF
{quote} USD still holding itīs neck (literally). But keep an eye on it. https://invst.ly/par32
Fed defacto QE is doing this. This area R is usually tough the first test on eu. 50 pips above the 200 plus a few other things here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,118
  • Dec 29, 2019 9:35pm Dec 29, 2019 9:35pm
Euro literally has spiked near highs since September 2019 in just 3 days..crazy price action..
  • #49,119
  • Dec 29, 2019 9:46pm Dec 29, 2019 9:46pm
Quoting euroboy2208
Euro literally has spiked near highs since September 2019 in just 3 days..crazy price action..
38.2% off the inception low/high on euro. .8225/1.6038... 1209.7
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 61 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,120
  • Dec 29, 2019 9:59pm Dec 29, 2019 9:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 38.2% off the inception low/high on euro. .8225/1.6038... 1209.7 {image}
I didn't have chance to read your posts.. glad I cut EurUsd longs and Swiss shorts while they paused moving up or down.. +20.... I hope your 1209.7 stop EU moveup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 30 KB
50 traders viewing now, 2 are registered:
Molaro
,