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Trader Education - The Bigger Picture, A Complete Course

  • Post #61
  • Quote
  • Edited 1:38pm Dec 28, 2019 1:20pm | Edited 1:38pm
I participated on the WW call earlier today I must say that I've never seen anyone talking on the subject presented by Nick. Tick frequency analyses, slope volume analyses, bid-ask bounces, bid-ask bounce deviations and cycles these are very innovative concepts (in retail world at least) that create patterns exploitable very effectively in forex trading which was also presented on real trades. I've been always interested in market microstructure and tick volume analyses (despite the fact that many says that FX spot volume is useless) but what was presented in the call/session today was trading taken from original and new perspective to me. It was great presentation and whole Price Action Plus course with true genuine content is valuable, and informative, and worth the money.

I do also like Nick's trading approach where taken trades are short and scaled in so account capital is not being exposed to the market moves, swaps etc. much longer than just couple of minutes. Simply In and Out quickly and keep capital safe. Bear in mind though that this style of trading requires broker with very competitive bid-ask spread.

And last but not least bear in mind it also requires to be open minded in order to grasp and digest completely different view on trading than usual technical analyses based on Dow's theories .
Chase value, not price
Quoting mcquak
I participated on the WW call earlier today I must say that I've never seen anyone talking on the subject presented by Nick. Tick frequency analyses, slope volume analyses, bid-ask bounces, bid-ask bounce deviations and cycles these are very interesting concepts that create patterns exploitable very effectively in forex trading which was also presented on real trades. I've been always interested in market microstructure and tick volume analyses (despite the fact that many says that FX spot volume is useless) but what was presented in the call/session...
Good times Mcquak! We'll dive into more next weekend, same time, same place, or heck, you can choose where you are. I'll be at the same place!
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • Post #63
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:08pm Dec 28, 2019 1:52pm | Edited 2:08pm
One screenshot I made during the webinar where we were presented with Bid-Ask Bounce cycles and their statistical interdependency which can be used for calculation of possible targets. Very interesting where one can find math/statistical dependency in price action.
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Chase value, not price
Quoting mcquak
I participated on the WW call earlier today I must say that I've never seen anyone talking on the subject presented by Nick. Tick frequency analyses, slope volume analyses, bid-ask bounces, bid-ask bounce deviations and cycles these are very innovative concepts (in retail world at least) that create patterns exploitable very effectively in forex trading which was also presented on real trades. I've been always interested in market microstructure and tick volume analyses (despite the fact that many says that FX spot volume is useless) but what was...
I couldn't have put it better mcquak. It makes me realise that I have been chasing shadows with other approaches. I have long wanted a strategy/set of rules based on fact not someone's interpretation of a chart that is in their head. This method is clear and precise.

So many mentors say "use what I have told you, now find your own way forward" or "I see what I see, you need to find it too" you know what I am talking about, they take your money and you have actually learnt NOTHING!

What Nick showed us today is fact. With the addition of true aggregated volume and the tool he provides this is the solution I have been looking for.

Roll on next weeks lesson
StuUK
As we get ready to step into the week let's think.

How many times have you consistently traded a shaky strategy thinking it would someday provide some returns. It won't.
How many times have you consistently traded successfully and thought, wow how strange this feels? 20% of traders may have found this at one point.

How many times have you traded within your comfort level, which produced the same results? ALL THE TIME.
How many times have you jumped from one strategy to the next to never really find what worked for your personality? 85% of Traders do this.

How many bad trades did it take for your confidence to shake loose and drop below the 60%, 50% 40% level? 10-20?
How many times before switching strategies did you actually examine the statistical reliability of the strategy you WERE using? Probably None.

For those of you who's answers are revelations heavy on your heart and account value... your confidence is probably around 30% +/- (This is valid for 90% of Traders)

BUT. It's not the end of the road.

When someone asks me to teach them the first question (and I've probably written this already in the thread) is typically "how long will it take you to teach me?"

My answer is something to the tune, dependent upon the person, "You're not ready!" "You're only ready when you can forget EVERYTHING that you know, or in many cases THINK you know about the markets now."

The problems with us humans (this means all of us) is that we naturally depend on what we see to confirm our intent to trade, we then wait for the price movement to be over thinking it's going to continue. And it doesn't and we humans are shaken out of the market.

BUT. It's not the end of the road.

Intelligent analysis that understands human response, volume as it happens and precisely HOW the market turns is able to tell you where the turns are occurring 'BEFORE' the turn actually shows up on the candle. It's that weakness 90% of traders see immediately after they enter a long trade as they gasp.. "oh shizz. It's reversing!"

Yesterday we had a great weekend session. Many who followed entered the session with 10,20 and 30% confidence. Before the two hours was done EVERYONE I think, but cannot confirm. Should have been above 50%. That's a MASSIVE jump for one day, let alone 2 Hours.

I teach the difference for free. Yes this is a commercial thread and that's the preference of FF which provides the service. Why do I provide the education for free? Because it makes a difference. You're not required to subscribe, be a member or anything else, I would only ask that you spread the message, pay it forward, after all the material isn't yours to hold onto, it's yours to share, it's my life's work to keep.

For those that take the extra step and upgrade into a paid membership welcome aboard. This is an adventurous and difficult career path but it's my commitment to share the knowledge I have gained. You'll find me available any day of the week. (It's a Sunday evening now).

For those that follow/subscribe there's good stuff coming this week.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
Marriage to a Dynamic Strategy but not to a Trend.

So you see EU start to push higher early AM after breaching a recent high and failing on an extended low. You enter a few longs, squeeze the pip juice 15 minutes later as it pulls back. Another 10 minutes goes by (if it's ever more than the 15 minutes of the bullish move) DO NOT TAKE IT. Volume has shifted a well as trader psyche. But you're in good hands it hasn't shifted and it' ready for another move higher, and you grab another 10 Pipparoos on the climb nice job.

Once again though the setup is good, pullback was a bit deeper, it starts to find it's bid, you enter and it stalls a moment. It's only a couple pips against you no big deal - Or is it time to bail and wait for a clear opportunity?

Time to bail! I'll explain why unless someone wants to guess.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
In 94% of Instances, after a trend has developed and you have at least 1 pullback along the way. Any subsequent pullback that is larger in magnitude (than the previous pullbacks) becomes the pull back that creates a range. These larger pull backs also have volume lower or it higher if your trend was a downward trend in a mere 98% of them.

This means you CAN see volume with statistical accuracy without having volume on your screen!


DO NOT go into the next trade until after it has broken the very high of the trend or below the low of the larger pullback (after it has bid/offered back in alignment with the trend)

The larger pullback becomes the first condition of a range. Stay out of the range, it deteriorates your trade quality in terms of pips per minute for the duration of your trades.

I personally like to look at 'flow' as giving me a return of x pips per minute on the movement expected. Between .75 and 2 pips per minute is ideal.

Enjoy the range tid bit. That in itself will save you thousands of failed trades!
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.

We end on a high note. Happy New Years to all of you. Salute to focus on 2020 Vision!



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The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • Post #69
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:13pm Jan 3, 2020 9:04am | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting mcquak
I participated on the WW call earlier today I must say that I've never seen anyone talking on the subject presented by Nick. Tick frequency analyses, slope volume analyses, bid-ask bounces, bid-ask bounce deviations and cycles these are very innovative concepts (in retail world at least) that create patterns exploitable very effectively in forex trading which was also presented on real trades. I've been always interested in market microstructure and tick volume analyses (despite the fact that many says that FX spot volume is useless) but what was...
Based on my positive feedback I gave to the PA+ course I feel obliged to warn you.

Nick sells his magic indicator for absurd 375$ a month ( WTF? for simple ZigZag breakout strategy masked behind some mumbo jumbo marketing without any evidence of long term profitability). I found out that the same indicator is freely available on the internet. It's based on known Ragee's Wave 34 GRAB candles which is based on 3 34EMAs, so neither any sort of volume nor institutional at all. You can find it here on FF, specifically in this post [1] (this concerned version contains minor bug though consists in mistake with shifting of calculated EMAs, but nothing which average IT guy could not manage to fix).
The FlowTrader indicator combo the (older one) is based on simple ZigZag (for finding "cycles" as Nick names it) even with default settings(!) and tick volume oscillator that is also freely avail. on the internet.

[1] https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...35#post7574235

Nick claims he/CleastreamFX created indicator combo (see the left hand side on the attached picture) that should show data based on "institutional volume aggregator" feed. Interestingly enough I was able to replicate very same thing with free common ZigZag even on default settings and with modified TickVolume oscillator without any access to institutional data feed. Fair enough, my version on the right hand side is not so nice in terms of coloured rectangles, but simple ZigZag finds the very same cycles (in form of zigzag points interconnected by red line in mine part) and it repaints at exactly same time as Nick's institutional volume CycleTrader.

Please compare both parts and find any significant difference. Nick's CycleTrader on the left, mine on the right. Compare particularly Rectangles vs. ZigZag points. See? My personal "institutional" volume feed oscillator aka FlowTrader is not exactly similar as Nick's, as I do not have access to any of such thing like institutional order flow at all, but I guess that Nick either, because both are similar and shapes are close enough that it's only matter of tuning several parameters for them to be exactly the same. Actually I consider mine "version" as even better than Nick's!

Nick obviously banned me out from this thread so I can not comment on his biased "truths" presented bellow this post. He skews the truth to his favour and I can not react on them. Like on the claim below about differences in the both charts and how "mine" version is wrong. Its not of course, both are similar.

These differences are only in colours! He compares his yellow-ish candle with mine dark green-ish and claims my colour is wrong. It's not wrong, it's the same as his, it's just different colour! It's just matter of indicator settings. Have you noticed white background on mine version? Is it also wrong? No, it's just different colour meaning the very same thing.

"Hence the perfect illustration of how grab candles are green in the big drops.. umm moving average.. amateur hour" -> actually not, it's wrong claim. And Nick, you know it, you are smart guy. You just interpret the picture in your favour, right? The colors are different the meaning is the same. The green you are referring to is DarkGreen and its meaning is different from Light Green. LG means up and bullish, DG does not mean Bullish at all, it means the same as your "Yellow"-ish. Shift in "volume" as you said. The same difference in meaning applies to Red and Maroon.

"The obvious is that when it's not freely avail, people do all sorts of things to get it free. Heck, just a year ago, I had someone die and come back to life to try and
get it for free. AND IM NOT kidding." -> I do not seek for free lunches. I just want to be treated fairly. I do not want to pay for free stuff, as anybody else.

So because Nick claims that methodology he teaches is based on some "proprietary institutional data feed" with aggregated volume (which I proved it's not true) and because all such indicators he sells are freely available on the internet then I must take back my recommendation I made and change it to that neither his "course" nor FT43 indicator do worth the penny.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12686671

Anyone considering to pay to ClearStreamFX please do your homework, make your own opinion based on the presented facts and decide if you really want to pay for something built up on common free indicators. Choose wisely and spend your spare money carefully as

I already flushed my $ into the dump by buying the ZigZag breakout strategy course for you .

Try to ask yourself a question how come I was able to made the same set of indicators without 30 years in industry and without access to instituional order flow just by using common/open source indicators. Am I only one who feels something smells funky around here?

Lastly, please accept my apologies for recommending Nick's course to the FF community.


McQ
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Chase value, not price
  • Post #70
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:43am Jan 3, 2020 9:07am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting mcquak
{quote} Based on my positive feedback I gave to the PA+ course I feel obliged to warn you. I found out that indicator which Nick sells for huge amount of money (even for monthly subscription) is freely available on the internet. It's based on famous Ragee's Wave 34 GRAB candles. You can find it here on FF, specifically in this post [1] (this concerned version contains some minor bugs though consists in mistake with shifting of calculated EMAs, but nothing which average IT guy could not managed to fix). The FlowTrader indicator combo the (older one)...
Now that's odd because the screen shot YOU sent me was CLEARLY different. Grab candles are NOT the same, they take into consideration moving averages and nonsense that are not responsive. the fact that the candles are generally the same does NOT mean that they are the same. I'll post your screen shot for you.

So when you have an indicator that uses moving averages that mirrors what FT43 does... but is not as responsive as FT43 with the volume analytics, that does NOT mean its the same indicator and in fact it's nowhere near. It's like saying a moving average went higher just like volume did.. but the moving average went higher 10 candles later that is not the same. So for the the blind... I'll show you the differences YOU can then judge for yourself and see how responsive FT43 is. Using moving averages requires a few lines of code.. FT43 Thousands. The Grab candles requires three different indicators one for bullish candles, one for bearish candles and one for neutral candles because that's how they need it to work with the moving averages.

FT43 uses a volume algorithm. YELLOW Candles after the Blue candles are the weakening move, while the Grab candles wait 6-10 candles later to realize that the move is over. Here comes the screen shot. This will be good entertainment.

So in each of the examples where the exponential moving averages of Grab candles fail to recognize market turns, those grab candles fail to GRAB LOL (How appropriate) the turn of events where FT43 does in fact recognize the change of sentiment on the fly.

No matter what strategy you use you should always remain responsively dynamic. Raghee Horner's Grab candles give you an unresponsive approach and thats the problem with moving averages of any kind. So in the two days I traded this week, I generated 11.54% return on 355 trade legs. That's not going to be done with Grab Candles or any other form of candle... if you were in the room you saw every single one of those trades. AND without lagging analysis of macd hamburgers, sexponential ( screwing you ) moving averages, or bollinger garbage cans, they will never drive the market, only tell you where the market has been in the past and that's not dynamic.

So there's no comparison in responsiveness whatsoever. For the uninformed yes there may be similarities but those similarities are exactly what's funded the institutions on vague analysis for decades. Keep doing that if you are happy with it! Good times!
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The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
So then this brings up Lagging Studies. What value do they provide if any?

What's obvious is that they provide losses and harbor toxic trading performance. So the value is to those with the deeper pockets (your trading counter parties).

It's like sitting at a Poker table with unlimited chips in your pocket - eventually you'll win a hand and walk away with all the marbles. Moving averages do the same, eventually they will fail, with the push/pull of liquidity of the market making institutions who do trade 95% of their volume aggressively this works directly against the trader using lagging studies and in favor of those who are responsive to those movements. It only depends on how responsive they are. Moving averages do not provide that responsiveness. So while you're sitting waiting for EU to bid higher, the inside prices are shifting rapidly, the market liquidity gets thin and while you sip your coffee it drops quick enough to take you out of profitability or worse yet, drops the last 4 pips to a stop loss that was created by a 200 period moving average and a breach to hunt it.

So if you'd like to see more on responsive analytics that's what I've done for decades not just the past year.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
Quoting Csfxtrading
{quote} Now that's odd because the screen shot YOU sent me was CLEARLY different. Grab candles are NOT the same, they take into consideration moving averages and nonsense that are not responsive. the fact that the candles are generally the same does NOT mean that they are the same. I'll post your screen shot for you. So when you have an indicator that uses moving averages that mirrors what FT43 does... but is not as responsive as FT43 with the volume analytics, that does NOT mean its the same indicator and in fact it's nowhere near. It's like saying...
Yes, there is clear difference between Nick's strategy and Grab candles. I just acquainted myself with Nick's method few days ago and cannot say a lot but Nick was able to apply his strategy in LIVE session.
Quoting Csfxtrading
{quote} Now that's odd because the screen shot YOU sent me was CLEARLY different. Grab candles are NOT the same, they take into consideration moving averages and nonsense that are not responsive. the fact that the candles are generally the same does NOT mean that they are the same. I'll post your screen shot for you. So when you have an indicator that uses moving averages that mirrors what FT43 does... but is not as responsive as FT43 with the volume analytics, that does NOT mean its the same indicator and in fact it's nowhere near. It's like saying...

I'll use my previous post. It's a perfect example. What happens with ALL moving averages is that when you have a sharp climb as in the image, lagging studies and moving averages fail to respond to the shift in direction where knowing the sentiment and flow responds on a dime. Hence the perfect illustration of how grab candles are green in the big drops.. umm moving average.. amateur hour.

So really moving averages have zero reference to reality by calculation they adhere to only what's happened in history.

The obvious is that when it's not freely avail, people do all sorts of things to get it free. Heck, just a year ago, I had someone die and come back to life to try and get it for free. AND IM NOT kidding. It's a fun story of reading people's intentions! Good Times!
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • Post #74
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:13pm Jan 3, 2020 3:53pm | Edited 4:13pm
It's none of my business but i see good points exposed by Mcquak, strange similarities, it's obvious.
that may ensue a technical and fair debate but... you ban him at the first controversy (we are not in North Corea), now we know Mcquak touched something sensitive and right.
By not being able to address you a controversial issue then take your commercial suitcase and go elsewhere. You lost your credibility.

I noted you had a pedigree in FF community with multiple usernames : Vendetti, Rockshore, Alphagroupfx....

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11807524

I would not be surprised to see Nick Vendetti associated with a rip-off report. (www.ripoffreport.com)

Take care.
Similarities.. is like saying the market went up, then it went down. Look the Bollinger Bands were correct! Must be the same thing! Wrong thread though.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
Quoting mcquak
{quote} Based on my positive feedback I gave to the PA+ course I feel obliged to warn you. Nick sells his magic indicator for absurd 375$ a month ( WTF? for simple ZigZag breakout strategy masked behind some mumbo jumbo marketing without any evidence of long term profitability). I found out that the same indicator is freely available on the internet. It's based on known Ragee's Wave 34 GRAB candles which is based on 3 34EMAs, so neither any sort of volume nor institutional at all. You can find it here on FF, specifically in this post [1] (this concerned...
Thank you for your thorough investigation. This thread started with so much (bad) ideology that caused my suspicion, a lot of air with little/or no substance (we have seen this numerous times in the commercial section). Compare this with threads started with real traders with long experience, who know their sh.t: little or no ideology, a lot of useful insights and tools plus trades of course.
Quoting Fred-IV
{quote} Thank you for your thorough investigation. This thread started with so much (bad) ideology that caused my suspicion, a lot of air with little/or no substance (we have seen this numerous times in the commercial section). Compare this with threads started with real traders with long experience, who know their sh.t: little or no ideology, a lot of useful insights and tools plus trades of course.
Yes. this thread started out with far more than what the majority of frequent fliers here understand.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • Post #78
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jul 12, 2020 11:26pm Jul 12, 2020 11:26pm
Quoting Csfxtrading
{quote} So really moving averages have zero reference to reality by calculation they adhere to only what's happened in history.
Actually... you can trade... relatively successfully... just by moving... amm... the moving averages... Lol. Don't be 100% sure in anything... especially in FX.
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