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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #5,541
  • Dec 17, 2019 4:42pm Dec 17, 2019 4:42pm
Another light volume in WTI (CME CL) today.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #5,542
  • Dec 17, 2019 10:09pm Dec 17, 2019 10:09pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Another light volume in WTI (CME CL) today. {image}
RSI pointing lower...on H1..thinking if we manage to get below the daily open then further weakness to bring in the bulls around the 60.01 price handle give or take....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,543
  • Dec 17, 2019 11:27pm Dec 17, 2019 11:27pm
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,544
  • Dec 18, 2019 4:33am Dec 18, 2019 4:33am
Bailed on my short. Looks like 62/63 is possible
  • #5,545
  • Dec 18, 2019 6:11am Dec 18, 2019 6:11am
Quoting Kwame Freder
Bailed on my short. Looks like 62/63 is possible
hope you booked some profits.
This behavior on 4M makes me nervous and not wanna trade it.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,546
  • Dec 18, 2019 6:24am Dec 18, 2019 6:24am
It will probably continue to behave erratic until data is released, then only god knows where it will go. My bet is down first and then heavily bought into. Yeah but took a loss on a second short.
  • #5,547
  • Dec 18, 2019 7:40am Dec 18, 2019 7:40am
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,548
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:06am Dec 18, 2019 9:06am
Quoting Kwame Freder
It will probably continue to behave erratic until data is released, then only god knows where it will go. My bet is down first and then heavily bought into. Yeah but took a loss on a second short.
Hey Kwame.....:
thoughts following that pullback is that the new high may provides a classic Head n Shoulders setup on the daily chart should the right hand shoulder not hold am thinking 63.3 becomes a new challenge/target for the bulls....
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  • #5,549
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:15am Dec 18, 2019 9:15am
resistance holding at the moment but still has a very bullish feel to it. every dip is bought into and pushed up. think it will eventually break and drive to 62+. when this happens, i have no clue. market is very bullish in my opinion.
  • #5,550
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:29am Dec 18, 2019 9:29am
Quoting Kwame Freder
resistance holding at the moment but still has a very bullish feel to it. every dip is bought into and pushed up. think it will eventually break and drive to 62+. when this happens, i have no clue. market is very bullish in my opinion.
Agreed....plenty of real estate to the topside to work with....genuinely thinking the low for the year is already in and now we just busy with pullback on the longer time frame to a a key level......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,551
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:49am Dec 18, 2019 9:49am
WTI renews multi-month highs above $61 after EIA data shows decline in US oil stocks
18 December 2019, 19:49

 

  1. Crude oil stocks in US fell by 1.1 million barrels.
  2. JP Morgan revised WTI price forecast for 2020.
  3. OPEC+ output cut and easing geopolitical tensions continue to support prices.

Crude oil prices rose for the fifth straight day on Wednesday and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate reached its highest level in three months at $61.17. As of writing, the WTI was up 1% on the day at $61.10.
EIA data boosts WTI
The weekly report published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday revealed that crude oil stocks in the US declined by 1.1 million barrels in the week ending December 13th to 446.8 million barrels. Although this reading came in slightly lower than the market expectation for a draw of 1.3 million barrels, the WTI gathered bullish momentum.
The ongoing crude oil rally is fueled by the inspiring Industrial Production data from both China and the US, easing geopolitical tensions following the completion of the phase-one trade deal and OPEC+' introduction of additional output cuts.
Amid these changes in market dynamics, JP Morgan said it revised the average price forecast for WTI in 2020 to $60 from $57.50. "We continue to expect global oil demand growth at 1 million barrels per day," JP Morgan said. "The OPEC, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have agreed to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020.”

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,552
  • Dec 18, 2019 10:13am Dec 18, 2019 10:13am
Quoting Ll1979
WTI renews multi-month highs above $61 after EIA data shows decline in US oil stocks 18 December 2019, 19:49 Crude oil stocks in US fell by 1.1 million barrels. JP Morgan revised WTI price forecast for 2020. OPEC+ output cut and easing geopolitical tensions continue to support prices. Crude oil prices rose for the fifth straight day on Wednesday and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate reached its highest level in three months at $61.17. As of writing, the WTI was up 1% on the day at $61.10. EIA data boosts WTI The weekly report published by the...
Yearly 50% fib level sits around 68.59 and the 61.8 fib sits around the 72.98 handle just for perspective
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  • #5,553
  • Dec 18, 2019 3:05pm Dec 18, 2019 3:05pm
Surprisingly, volume ticked up and it was an average day as far as volume does in CME's CL. A lot of that probably had to do with the EIA inventories data.
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Here's the spike in volume surrounding the EIA release:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #5,554
  • Dec 18, 2019 6:21pm Dec 18, 2019 6:21pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Surprisingly, volume ticked up and it was an average day as far as volume does in CME's CL. A lot of that probably had to do with the EIA inventories data. {image} Here's the spike in volume surrounding the EIA release: {image}
Seems a sell at current levels may well be worth a crack to look for 60.50 atleast and trailing......some bearish RSI divergence coming into the picture.
Buy dip mode to continue thereafter me thinks...
Green Pips to you bud
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,555
  • Edited 2:23am Dec 19, 2019 2:12am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Seems a sell at current levels may well be worth a crack to look for 60.50 atleast and trailing......some bearish RSI divergence coming into the picture. Buy dip mode to continue thereafter me thinks... Green Pips to you bud {image}
backwardation in brent structure has reached the highest levels almost since 2018 (minus the Oct18 extreme backwardation) ... ideally spot should correct a little as 66$ is a long term tech number too .. but crude is crude .. it can keep rolling too. who knows!

--> bit of a correction here. backwardation reaching extreme levels usually can also mean it can pull up spot prices sharply. but anyways clearly lot going on in crude. interesting mkt.
  • #5,556
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:41am Dec 19, 2019 2:41am
Quoting prashfx
{quote} backwardation in brent structure has reached the highest levels almost since 2018 (minus the Oct18 extreme backwardation) ... ideally spot should correct a little as 66$ is a long term tech number too .. but crude is crude .. it can keep rolling too. who knows! --> bit of a correction here. backwardation reaching extreme levels usually can also mean it can pull up spot prices sharply. but anyways clearly lot going on in crude. interesting mkt.
Agreed. Lets see how it goes...looking at the daily break out on the 4/5th of this month to become a support handle....

Marking the yearly low in....up up and away for now....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,557
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:56am Dec 19, 2019 3:56am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Agreed. Lets see how it goes...looking at the daily break out on the 4/5th of this month to become a support handle.... Marking the yearly low in....up up and away for now....
If backwardation level persists as it is or increases, and some major event like dollar sell off or geopolitical risk happens, there can be a 5-10$ movement up in Brent Spot prices. Chances less but it has happened as recent as in Mar-May 2018.
  • #5,558
  • Dec 19, 2019 5:46am Dec 19, 2019 5:46am
64-65 area expected
  • #5,559
  • Dec 19, 2019 6:25am Dec 19, 2019 6:25am
Quoting smfmak
64-65 area expected
Was looking to go long around the 66.20 handle but the dip wasn’t low enough to trigger the entry....
will wait and see if the H1 is creating a double top as we are yet to break out higher without prices dipping back towards the H1 50 EMA thus far.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,560
  • Dec 19, 2019 7:01am Dec 19, 2019 7:01am
Quoting SinkMarkets
WTI is giving up ,less and less power and has a tendency to turn big red on 24 Dec ...we are on expiry date ,am shorting on Feb contract at @60.78 ... in many are expecting 62 to go short but will never get there ...
WTI found the top...buyers are exhausted ... i expect a 10% drop and really fast ...till Xmas
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