What Is Driving My Portfolio

I am currently trading a broad model which I am applying across most markets; whilst trading I have begun to notice themes within my trades I would like to showcase with the community in the form of a newsletter and then later engage in potential discussion as seen fit.

My main aim is to bring clarity and understanding of the markets to you which will then give you the confidence to produce actionable ideas that can lead to consistent profits.

Issue 001 Talking Points

1. Australia (FX)
2. Brazil and Commodities
3. Misc: Book & Pic of the week (+ my PnL)

Taken a bullish position trade on $GBPAUD

As much as I am enjoying this run to the upside I must admit a healthy pullback is due, but for now I am watching this key level of resistance if this breaks then further upside is on the cards

Coffee continues to travel to the upside breaking through a key area of resistance and more!

Personally I feel there is more upside but a pullback is due for the following reasons:

 

1. Precipitation in brazil is starting to improve, at the start of the week the month to date precipitation was 0.02 and now it's 0.91 however it is important to note that it is nowhere near its average

1. Brazillian Real has not improved making agriculture products still relatively cheap

However, having said all this the US-China trade war situation does not seem to have got any closer to a resolution but we still have 4 days!

Yesterday the FOMC meeting had a negative impact on one of my trades (AUDUSD), as one may have concluded I was long the USD.



The FOMC statement was relatively dovish and so was the market's response despite unusual correlations taking place e.g. XAUUSD and SP500 both rising.

Despite this loss which some may argue could have been avoided, my portfolio is well balanced and in profit, so I will take this as a healthy pullback in a rising PnL chart, however, I will be more cautious if a USD FX pair comes up on my watchlist, especially as along on the USD side.

Issue 002 Talking Points

 

1. US/China trade war (FX)
2. More US: Trump and the Fed
3. Misc: Book & Pic of the week (+ my PnL review)

Trade Update

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Trade Update

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Trade Update

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Although starting to wane, the rise is on the back of some great fundamentals:

1. Brazilian drought and weak BRLUSD
2. Brazillian farmers running low on coffee due to increased exports as a result of the US-China trade war

Trade Update

SL hit in my Coffee trade



Another one of my trades hit my trailing stop earlier than intended but I was able to walk away with an asymmetric return



I have just opened a natural gas short which I believe warmer winters are to be the main catalyst for this move