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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #5,241
  • Dec 17, 2019 7:00pm Dec 17, 2019 7:00pm
Here we see the AVERAGE is trying for the LL so have a guess where the price should stretch for.
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This gives a bias we can work with at the lower time frame.
  • #5,242
  • Dec 18, 2019 2:05am Dec 18, 2019 2:05am
If you wanna know where my Zone of Opportunity was:
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Traded from there, with the divergences.
Day is done!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,243
  • Dec 18, 2019 3:21am Dec 18, 2019 3:21am
Heading to the D1 EMA
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,244
  • Dec 18, 2019 5:21am Dec 18, 2019 5:21am
Just popped in to have a look, temperature is absolutely roasting hot here..

I see neither side has been able to find and hold support so we need a breakout.
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  • #5,245
  • Dec 18, 2019 5:26am Dec 18, 2019 5:26am
Your screens too hot again?
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,246
  • Dec 18, 2019 8:19am Dec 18, 2019 8:19am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Hi Kevin, It is trading below the H1 EMA which is making a Lower Low swing. My overall Bias is down. Possibly the election gap will be closed. What a night. The second leg down started early today, missed it completely. This is not a market where I feel comfortable, tbh. Mainly I should try to get in short business from M5 M15 EMA. But H1 completed an ABCD in divergence {image} 3243/3235 Asian low is obviously a level to watch for at least a retracement back. If we get there it seems to be with div. I will watch this on the M5 for an HD....
Hi Jazz, I'm talking about the previous day's zoo where the price is trading above the H1 EMA. Also, I see that there's H1 div. But, can you please explain about the zone you've drawn on H1 price. I'm marking it with an oval. And, since it's trading above H1 EMA, what do you think of it. Is the div okay enough for such kinda situations?
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  • #5,247
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:03am Dec 18, 2019 9:03am
Hi Kevin,
Yes we were trading above the H1 EMA, while that EMA was trending up.
Reason I took the short is that the ZOO was Friday's resistance. Price went down from that resistance for a big deal.
I shorted because Price retraced circa 50% of the total move down, backed up by the divergences. You know, the risk is set tight. The reward had enough space to the H1 EMA.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,248
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:17am Dec 18, 2019 9:17am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hey Jazz, can it been seen this way, this morning i marked the last price swing high on the H1 as a ZOO, it was close to that EMA 26 swing high on the M15. It was reached on the H1 in a bearish rsi/rsi and on the M15 in a HD (and i missed that) From then i started looking for shorts and i entered on the M5 after the hook and closed at the bottom off the range as it was ranging this morning. So can previous price swing highs or lows been seen as a ZOO on the H1?
  • #5,249
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:34am Dec 18, 2019 9:34am
Quoting huskyboy
{image} Hey Jazz, can it been seen this way, this morning i marked the last price swing high on the H1 as a ZOO, it was close to that EMA 26 swing high on the M15. It was reached on the H1 in a bearish rsi/rsi and on the M15 in a HD (and i missed that) From then i started looking for shorts and i entered on the M5 after the hook and closed at the bottom off the range as it was ranging this morning. So can previous price swing highs or lows been seen as a ZOO on the H1?
My answer is yes sure.
I like your chart, good analyses.
Just your entry could have been earlier and higher IMHO. Look at the pic below here, I have marked the HD clear. As soon as price came back in the balance area you could have jumped in, e.g. at the next bar open.
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,250
  • Dec 18, 2019 11:39am Dec 18, 2019 11:39am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} My answer is yes sure. I like your chart, good analyses. Just your entry could have been earlier and higher IMHO. Look at the pic below here, I have marked the HD clear. As soon as price came back in the balance area you could have jumped in, e.g. at the next bar open. {image}
Thx Jazz but i waited for this candle (red Arrow) on the M5 to close before entering. I believe this could have been 3 entries, first one on the HD, second one on the bear rsi/rsi and third one after the close off the hook. HD, bear rsi/si, the hook and the weakness on the fast rsi together with the signs on the high timeframes confirmed the entries in my opinion. But what do you mean with the balance area?
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  • #5,251
  • Dec 18, 2019 4:25pm Dec 18, 2019 4:25pm
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} ... But what do you mean with the balance area? {image}
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,252
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:39pm Dec 18, 2019 9:39pm
Quoting Jazz1964
Hi Kevin, Yes we were trading above the H1 EMA, while that EMA was trending up. Reason I took the short is that the ZOO was Friday's resistance. Price went down from that resistance for a big deal. I shorted because Price retraced circa 50% of the total move down, backed up by the divergences. You know, the risk is set tight. The reward had enough space to the H1 EMA.
Thanks! Now it's clear for me.
  • #5,253
  • Dec 19, 2019 1:55am Dec 19, 2019 1:55am
missed that upmove, just arrived, but i guess the HD on H1 was the start for the move
ABCD on the M30
  • #5,254
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:08am Dec 19, 2019 2:08am
I missed that too. Expected Price to go to the H1 EMA that's all.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,255
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:10am Dec 19, 2019 2:10am
Quoting Jazz1964
I missed that too. Expected Price to go to the H1 EMA that's all.
now that surprises me
  • #5,256
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:15am Dec 19, 2019 2:15am
Quoting huskyboy
missed that upmove, just arrived, but i guess the HD on H1 was the start for the move ABCD on the M30
isn't that one well outside of the 108 bar? im just learning tho been reading the thread all day..
  • #5,257
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:20am Dec 19, 2019 2:20am
Quoting huskyboy
missed that upmove, just arrived, but i guess the HD on H1 was the start for the move ABCD on the M30
could u please show chart. if u have time i cant see the HD
  • #5,258
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:22am Dec 19, 2019 2:22am
Quoting PhillipmC
{quote} isn't that one well outside of the 108 bar? im just learning tho been reading the thread all day..
yes it was, bull rsi/rsi in 04.00 bar followed by HD in 06.00 bar, so you could have gone long in 07.05 M5 bull support bar if you had waited for the 108
  • #5,259
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:30am Dec 19, 2019 2:30am
Good morning all

I went away because I couldn't see the wood for the trees. Thought I would give it a rest and then come back with fresh eyes (and brain). Seems like it hasn't made a jot of difference.

I cannot seem to get the picture from the higher timeframe, in fact I get it wrong pretty much everytime. Please bear with my while I try to expain myself, and then maybe you can point out what I'm doing wrong.

The H1 EMA is making lower lows, and price is below EMA, but there was a diveregnce yesterday, so expect price to move back acorss the H1 EMA. This would give me a long bias. However it can't be as simple as that because presented with the same factors yesterday price went down.

Through the asian session there are various diveregnces both ways - I haven't marked them all to avoid too much clutter. At 06:00 there was a bullish divergence, so again a reason to go long, and on M5 RSI went below 20, so a reason for entry 1 (too early for me - was in bed), then the pull back at 2, where fast RSI stays below the slow RSI. However at that point (08:30 by my broker), the previous hour candle had closed in bearish divergence and the current hour candle was also in bearish divergence, so now I'm thining I should be looking for short.

At 09:00 on m5 the EMA movement is telling me long, but the price is at the H1 EMA, it is overbought on M5, the 08:00 H1 candle has just closed in bearish divergence, so in my eyes there is at least as much telling me to short as there is to go long.

I always see conflicting signals, and when I don't have a grasp on the long term bias it means I get out of the trades early. I have never managed to get 40 pips, and never managed to get more than two trades on, because I don't have the confidence that I am reading the charts correctly.

Hope you can hep. thanks in advance
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  • #5,260
  • Dec 19, 2019 2:55am Dec 19, 2019 2:55am
I see I wasn't the only one confused today! Although my confusion isn't just limited to today :-)
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