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  • #5,521
  • Dec 16, 2019 5:52pm Dec 16, 2019 5:52pm
Quoting Cools81
{quote} Could be. Whats everyones thoughts on this? I have noticed first 2-3 weeks of January are a little weird. The auctions seem to float if that makes sense. Less directional, less deep tests and seems to always rise. Is that the JANUARY EFFECT?
EventsTrader is spot on. We're in for a slow couple weeks unless there's some surprise news.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #5,522
  • Dec 16, 2019 8:17pm Dec 16, 2019 8:17pm
Quoting Cools81
{quote} Could be. Whats everyones thoughts on this? I have noticed first 2-3 weeks of January are a little weird. The auctions seem to float if that makes sense. Less directional, less deep tests and seems to always rise. Is that the JANUARY EFFECT?
I'm not sure about January. As far as I know volume returns pretty quickly.

We saw very low volume today in Crude per the CME futures contract.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #5,523
  • Dec 16, 2019 9:23pm Dec 16, 2019 9:23pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I'm not sure about January. As far as I know volume returns pretty quickly. We saw very low volume today in Crude per the CME futures contract. {image}
Yeah re Jan it should be ok as all major banks are back and working.
  • #5,524
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:32am Dec 17, 2019 3:32am
OIL: 2020 PRICE FORECAST UPGRADED ON OPEC+ CUTS, IMPROVED ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – JP MORGAN
17 December 2019, 06:44

In the wake of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) deeper output cuts and improved Emerging Markets (EM) economic outlook, the US investment bank, JP Morgan raised its oil price outlook for 2020.
Key Quotes:
“Brent price forecast upped to $64.5 per barrel in 2020 from $59 earlier, although it expects prices to slip to $61.50 in 2021.
West Texas Intermediate prices are seen following a similar trajectory with prices averaging $60 per barrel in 2020 and $57.50 in 2021.
The end of UK electoral uncertainty and the U.S.-China trade truce along with fading of idiosyncratic headwinds in some of the larger emerging markets economies have improved the global growth outlook for next year
In contrast to our September forecast that the global oil market will be in surplus of 0.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) on average for 2020, we now estimate the market will be in deficit of 0.2 mbpd
Continue to expect global oil demand growth at 1 mbpd. The OPEC, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have agreed to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020.”
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,525
  • Dec 17, 2019 6:16am Dec 17, 2019 6:16am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I've seen liquidity die out this early before and it usually doesn't come back until after the start of the new year.
Quoting Ef5
{quote} EventsTrader is spot on. We're in for a slow couple weeks unless there's some surprise news.
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I'm not sure about January. As far as I know volume returns pretty quickly. We saw very low volume today in Crude per the CME futures contract. {image}
Quoting Cools81
{quote} Could be. Whats everyones thoughts on this? I have noticed first 2-3 weeks of January are a little weird. The auctions seem to float if that makes sense. Less directional, less deep tests and seems to always rise. Is that the JANUARY EFFECT?
Guys, unfortunately I am observing the same thing In fact, was expecting this but was hoping for an somewhat exception...
However WTI still seems to be (slowly) rising, in tune with seasonality... and I might check the BUY (NORTH) opportunities for the next month then most probably resuming SOUTH Will watch how market develops, if there are any extraordinary opportunity but if not, I would prefer to be out of the market till the end of the year... Also, after new year, so in 2020.. I do not expect markets to JUMP-START right away... since 01JAN, 02JAN are part (bank) holidays in some parts of EU... Also 03JAN is Friday so some people might extend it through the weekend... also on 03JAN the JPY bank holiday... Anyway... I might also wait/pass the week after... So might (fully) resume the market ("traditionally") on 13JAN20 or even better.. 15JAN20
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #5,526
  • Dec 17, 2019 9:18am Dec 17, 2019 9:18am
The steady climb will not end. No bears in sight
  • #5,527
  • Dec 17, 2019 9:48am Dec 17, 2019 9:48am
Quoting Kwame Freder
The steady climb will not end. No bears in sight
Sure looks that way! I might agree on that one
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #5,528
  • Dec 17, 2019 10:20am Dec 17, 2019 10:20am
WTI is giving up ,less and less power and has a tendency to turn big red on 24 Dec ...we are on expiry date ,am shorting on Feb contract at @60.78 ... in many are expecting 62 to go short but will never get there ...
  • #5,529
  • Edited 10:50am Dec 17, 2019 10:28am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting Kwame Freder
The steady climb will not end. No bears in sight
This daily area might offer some resistance.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,530
  • Dec 17, 2019 10:34am Dec 17, 2019 10:34am
M4 might be ripe for a (intraday) correction if 60,78 support gets broken
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,531
  • Dec 17, 2019 10:38am Dec 17, 2019 10:38am
got a decent rejection, lets see if its time for a bit of down.
  • #5,532
  • Dec 17, 2019 10:43am Dec 17, 2019 10:43am
Quoting Kwame Freder
got a decent rejection, lets see if its time for a bit of down.
At crucial point it bounced, hoping for a nice short signal
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,533
  • Dec 17, 2019 11:17am Dec 17, 2019 11:17am
looking to go short from this level. its way too high for me to keep buying and it feels like its being artificially pumped.
  • #5,534
  • Dec 17, 2019 11:31am Dec 17, 2019 11:31am
Quoting Kwame Freder
looking to go short from this level. its way too high for me to keep buying and it feels like its being artificially pumped.
remember the API inventory numbers later this day
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,535
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:11pm Dec 17, 2019 12:11pm
yes im aware of it. may be the only thing to halt this pump north.
  • #5,536
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:07pm Dec 17, 2019 3:07pm
OIL possible resistance 61.08/30
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #5,537
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:30pm Dec 17, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
yes im aware of it. may be the only thing to halt this pump north.
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} remember the API inventory numbers later this day
Last week there was a surprise build in both API and EIA data. The week prior there was a much bigger than expected draw. I'm not sure what to expect but with volume as low as it's been. I'm probably on the sidelines until after the new year.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #5,538
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:37pm Dec 17, 2019 3:37pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} {quote} Last week there was a surprise build in both API and EIA data. The week prior there was a much bigger than expected draw. I'm not sure what to expect but with volume as low as it's been. I'm probably on the sidelines until after the new year.
twitter post
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,539
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:42pm Dec 17, 2019 3:42pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} twitter post {image}
Yup. A pretty big build in crude inventories: https://www.energyexch.com/news/9697...e-47-cushing-3

WTI is taking quite a hit. Let's see if we get continuation. Usually we have some on a surprise number like this.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #5,540
  • Dec 17, 2019 3:55pm Dec 17, 2019 3:55pm
WTI is very bullish. Shorting this thing is like swimming against the current. hopefully next 2 sessions bears push this down or else will bail
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