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Trader Education - The Bigger Picture, A Complete Course

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 15, 2019 10:52am Dec 15, 2019 10:52am
In the past 31 Years, I have dissected about every market condition. Trading those conditions brings experience, researching those conditions brings knowledge, the knowledge delivers the how to, the how to protects against risk while it allows capital appreciation. While I cannot guarantee anyone's success. I can assure you the answers cumulatively have provided 3 decades of consistent profits. I'll share trading models (not indicators) but Models, which are real time, on the fly dynamic methods of analysis. (Indicators lag in their study of history, my trading models do not.

In this thread I'll identify thirty 'real time' strategies that use an intense focus on staying dynamic. You'll be given a powerful approach while every measure or method of analysis has been validated to resiliency of over 75%. If it doesn't provide that, I don't use it.

1. What time frame is the best?
2. What 'indicators' should I use?
3. Should I rely on fundamentals or technical analysis only?
4. How do I identify stop loss levels?
5. Why did that trade go against me?
6. Is there a secret formula the banks use?
7. What are Fibonacci levels?
8. What does it mean to have historical delay?
9. How is price action important?
10. What is the best analysis?
11. What drives the market?
12. Do we analyze the market from the higher time frames to determine the lower time frames, or the opposite?
13. What is market microstructure?
14. How does a market maker generate revenue?
15. Is MT4 a 'retail' platform?
16. Why isn't volume available to retail traders?
17. How long will it take you to teach me?
18. Can anyone be profitable?
19. What are the psychological aspects of trading?
20. Are there specific personality types that make good traders?
21. What does it mean to trade dynamically?
22. Are Fib Levels valuable?
23. Should I use a Moving Average?
24. What's the most powerful form of analysis?
25. Are pivots valuable?
26. What should I do for money management?
27. How many hours should I trade per day?
28. How much profit should I expect?
29. Where should I place my take profit targets?
30. Which is more profitable, 2 Pips or 20?
31. What should do to learn how to trade properly?
32. I have no experience, what do I do first?
33. I've been trading 10 years without profit, can you change this?

Again, these are just some of the questions that I'm asked daily. I'm sure there will be more, I'll go through these one by one to give a solid understanding of the market from A price tick to Z Pips in the Basket!

Of course, as always, there's risk in trading foreign exchange or financial derivatives and you must understand these risks before trading. If you are not familiar with the associated risks, seek outside advice to determine if the risks of derivatives is within your tolerances.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #2
  • Dec 15, 2019 12:30pm Dec 15, 2019 12:30pm
Hi Csfxtrading, this sure looks to be interesting. Like they say, one is never too old to learn.

Looking forward to this.

Gerald
  • #3
  • Dec 15, 2019 12:52pm Dec 15, 2019 12:52pm
Quoting portergw
Hi Csfxtrading, this sure looks to be interesting. Like they say, one is never too old to learn. Looking forward to this. Gerald


Well let's let it roll Gerald!

What are the most important objectives for both 1) an inexperienced trader and 2) one with experience that hasn't found resilient profit?

1. Clean the Slate. Start Fresh. Eliminate the noise and find out everything you can that has statistical reliability.

2. Recognize that the charts are fundamentally wrong. Sure you can have 7 candles lower, mostly down candles but in the middle of those one upward candle. Is that really an upward candle or is that just a candle the coincidentally coincided with the timing of the minute on open and close? To assume that's an upward candle is wrong and we must assume that it's a downward candle. If it hasn't broken bid/ask bounce of direction it's still a downward candle.

3. All changes in direction have statistical reliability and conditions that exist BEFORE the turn, the actual break of the turn MUST break bid/ask bounce, the phenomenon of prices to move in a direction sequentially or, in a channel of candles/bars or beer bottles. This can be 5 minutes or 35 minutes, the one condition is that it's indiscriminate, it simply continues until supply and demand force it to change direction. BUT, the only way it can change direction isn't through noise, but through volume & price movement, both independent but prices are always driven by volume.

4. Once you have the slate clean traders can start to consume 2 & 3 and align their vision with the hard right edge of the chart. (The future)
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #4
  • Dec 15, 2019 1:49pm Dec 15, 2019 1:49pm
Well, with 31 years of trading I am sure that you have a vast amount of knowledge that you could share, and I am all ears.
I have been trading on and off for about 14 years now. I started a bit late at 50 years of age but my day job put a damper on trading, maybe a good thing so that I could not overtrade. I trade 4hr and daily charts.
Last Friday I decided to pack it all in and now I can concentrate more on doing what I enjoy, and that is trading. Over the years I went down the usual road of accumulating every indicator out there and putting it to the test. My toolbox was overflowing. It is now time for me to clean the slate and start fresh.

Thank you for starting this thread and I wish you well.

Gerald
  • #5
  • Dec 15, 2019 1:55pm Dec 15, 2019 1:55pm
Quoting portergw
Well, with 31 years of trading I am sure that you have a vast amount of knowledge that you could share, and I am all ears. I have been trading on and off for about 14 years now. I started a bit late at 50 years of age but my day job put a damper on trading, maybe a good thing so that I could not overtrade. I trade 4hr and daily charts. Last Friday I decided to pack it all in and now I can concentrate more on doing what I enjoy, and that is trading. Over the years I went down the usual road of accumulating every indicator out there and putting it...
Oh let's see if we can give you some focus.

1) Eliminate everything historical in nature.

2) Hold onto parts of price action.

3) Understand, supply and demand drive it all. (which most are blind to the data)

4) I'll fill in the rest.

5) Think dynamically, no more static take profit targets or stop loss numbers, they need to be dynamic to give the market room to breathe.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #6
  • Dec 15, 2019 8:07pm Dec 15, 2019 8:07pm
So let's get down to business.

What's the most valuable time frame there is? Why?

Surveys validate that 86% of the trading population is a firm believer in the longer term charts of M30 and Higher Time frames. But is that a statistic we can rely on as 90% of traders consistently lose money?

Are they struggling with their choice of time frame? It would seem so right from the beginning.

The second thought here is proven when you understand microstructure. To break the markets larger time frames down into the smaller you must first understand the smaller time frames.

The sum of the smaller time frames = the total of the larger time frames. Without knowledge of the smaller time frames the larger time frame only provides noise.

Therefore, refine your approach, stay dynamic on the larger time frames and work towards proficiency on the smaller time frames and eventually you'll get to a completely dynamic skill set on the M1.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #7
  • Dec 17, 2019 2:26pm Dec 17, 2019 2:26pm
Gearing up towards what will be an advancement on already leading trader education. This one's a biggy! For those that registered, hang tight. Lots of information to consume but we're going to make it as easy as walking a small dog.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #8
  • Dec 18, 2019 5:19pm Dec 18, 2019 5:19pm
Quoting drookpa
{quote} Hi. Do you run any course now? Interested to join if it's free..
Yes we started one today. Seating is no longer available . Video based course will be avail at end of week!
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #9
  • Dec 19, 2019 12:38pm Dec 19, 2019 12:38pm
Trading Hours. These are the are the most mis-applied component of trading. Much of it because at the core, the trader is using improper analysis. This happens as the trader bounces from strategy to strategy ever searching for the right set of 'indicators' to use or measures of price action to follow.

But it's all wrong in most cases. A Trader gets down to business on a 5 Minute chart trying to find transparency from 45 minutes ago. It doesn't work and the approach is flawed. What MUST happen is the time frame of analysis must be shorter than the time frame of the chart. This gives consistent measures of continuation.

When trading the lower time frames you MUST understand the micro-structure of the market to capture movements that follow through with your expected direction or provides you transparency on where the turns are happening - BEFORE THEY ACTUALLY HAPPEN. <--this in itself is much easier than you'd expect.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #10
  • Dec 22, 2019 6:53am Dec 22, 2019 6:53am
How many strategies does it take to get to the center of a lollipop?

Ok, maybe not the most appropriate opening statement to this post but nevertheless it is fitting.

My purpose here is to enlighten those on what has happened to each of us many times over during any sort of extended study or learning phase of FX.
I'm asked this question so many times I have literally lost count of the times I've lost count but the answers are always the same.

How long will it take you to teach me? My answer is typically more associated with what they know now and how long it will take them to forget it all and start with a clean slate. At that point they are ready to learn and that's the ultimate focus. But, what clearly happens is this.

A trader comes to the market, looks at the charts and say's, I want to trade. It's easy, a 50% chance really, either up or down movement. I got it! Sure, the first couple trades may go their direction before reality sets in and they blow an account up. Perplexed as how it could happen, they applied the rules to the MACD, or RSI and it should have worked out well, in fact, after the exit at a loss the price did in fact go in their expected direction, their timing was just 'off'.

So they move to another strategy to get a handle of timing. Maybe a stochastic this time. Boom. Same things happens. With some budding frustration they then try another strategy using fibonacci levels and that fails. Then the RSI and Bollinger Bands. Again, failure after failure.

Through all this, the deterioration of their confidence has already started and they are actually scared of trading. The doubt becomes toxic to any slight stability and their confidence hits a low 10%.

I have seen this low in traders countless numbers of times and that's not an exaggeration. But what happens next is enlightening. I show them exactly why their not trading profitably and why their confidence has dwindled to near nothing and in two weeks, they are at 70%, 80% with win loss ratios that most only dream of.

This happens during every course that I teach. I tell them to stop inspecting the student and doubting the student and focus their doubt on the tools they are using. The RSI, the Elliot Wave Garbage, the Bollinger Trash cans, the MACD Burgers. They are toxic, Do NOT USE THEM. Now many would say price action is the only method of analysis to use. Those too are wrong. Price action is just one component of many but price action in itself is lagging to a change in only two things. Trader Psyche ** and Volume.

** Smart Money Trader Psyche
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #11
  • Dec 23, 2019 5:38am Dec 23, 2019 5:38am
Yes, I have done exactly this, strategy to strategy!
  • #12
  • Dec 23, 2019 8:14am Dec 23, 2019 8:14am
Quoting Dore
Yes, I have done exactly this, strategy to strategy!
That's when confidence is shredded to pieces loss by loss.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #13
  • Dec 23, 2019 7:09pm Dec 23, 2019 7:09pm
Hi CSFX,

All the best for Christmas, the new year and this new thread, looking forward to it.

D
  • #14
  • Dec 23, 2019 7:12pm Dec 23, 2019 7:12pm
Quoting Dane
Hi CSFX, All the best for Christmas, the new year and this new thread, looking forward to it. D
You too. Happy Holidays. I'll keep plugging away in here every day.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #15
  • Dec 23, 2019 7:21pm Dec 23, 2019 7:21pm
Quoting Csfxtrading
{quote} You too. Happy Holidays. I'll keep plugging away in here every day.
Sure thing CSFX, thanks again...

D
  • #16
  • Edited 11:16pm Dec 24, 2019 12:47pm | Edited 11:16pm
The banks are funded by uninformed traders, investors, depositors and regulators too blind to the corruption of the banks.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #17
  • Dec 26, 2019 8:11am Dec 26, 2019 8:11am
Nice post. Thnaks for sharing and i hope i can learn a lot. Thanks.
  • #18
  • Dec 26, 2019 8:50am Dec 26, 2019 8:50am
Countless times what works best when training a trader is to give them thoughts or bits of data that have no relationship to foreign exchange specifically and allow them to digest it before going into detail.

Here's a thought of the day, I'll dive into it's explanation later this afternoon.

Price Movement continues until it does not. - Seems rather absurdly simple. But what happens when it does not and how granular is this 'movement' How do we identify when it does NOT and what does that event give us?

Think this over, I'll give the answer this afternoon. You'll IMMEDIATELY FIND Benefit in reading it. Significant Benefit.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #19
  • Edited 11:07am Dec 26, 2019 9:29am | Edited 11:07am
Quoting Csfxtrading
In the past 31 Years, I have dissected about every market condition. Trading those conditions brings experience, researching those conditions brings knowledge, the knowledge delivers the how to, the how to protects against risk while it allows capital appreciation. While I cannot guarantee anyone's success. I can assure you the answers cumulatively have provided 3 decades of consistent profits. I'll share trading models (not indicators) but Models, which are real time, on the fly dynamic methods of analysis. (Indicators lag in their study of history,...
Hey Csfx.
All you've written sound so... tempting

Can you provide any evidence of the claim you ve got 31 years experience in trading profitably?

Regards

Mcq
  • #20
  • Dec 26, 2019 9:51am Dec 26, 2019 9:51am
Quoting mcquak
{quote} Hey Csfx. All you've written sound so... tempting Can you provide any evidence of the claim you ve got 31 years experience in trading profitably? Are you from clearstreamfx prop. firm? Regards Mcq
I think your question is worded wrong. Yes Ive been trading 31 but I don't think even my dreams would suggest anyone would trade all 31 profitably. There's a learning curve for all of us. 26 years Profitably, 18 years with Solid Returns, 15 of those years with great returns and the last 10 years with returns that constantly improve but average better than 2-3% per day that I trade.
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
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