Some big down moves imminent on US/Euro indices?

Big weekly Doji on the Dax just below my critical level posted above Nov 9th. Next week will be interesting.

As you can clearly see, the Dow is within my so called ' Danger Level ' posted on this thread earlier, and so far, it is being held. Whether it can break out north of this remains to be seen, but if it drops, as I suspect it might, then we will be looking most likely at some pretty big falls, 1000 pips or more.

The levels I predict the price may fall to if we turn south from inside my danger level are shown by the yellow and orange markers, the 61.8 & 76.4% fibonacci levels respectively.

It is not my intention to call any shorts, for that is up to each person to decide fr themselves, but merely to draw attention to what I see as a very critical level.

trade safe!

I agree with you to some extent, but:
The daily and weekly show no weakness so far
The Fed is still in full QE mode and free cash is plenty
The market awaits for the decision on tariffs by Dec 15

Trade safe

& I agree with you in that what is now QE4 should push stocks higher, much higher, but my technicals are screaming, and that I cannot ignore. We will know soon enough.

As I said in my last post, the technicals were screaming for a turn south on both US and EU indecis, and so no surprise today to see some big down moves. I'm now looking at around the 12,800 level for potential support on the Dax, though I think it may drop further if it gets there to around 12,400 initially. The Dow has found support on its 76.4% retrace fib level for now, and the S&P is currently between its 61.8% and 76.4%, and both threatening to break lower, so wer'll see whether they can stage a fight back in the second half of the US trading session.

Was a perfect sell signal yesterday on Dow... Would be suprised if we don't hit Daily 100 at least, and should get to Daily 200.

Danger zone originally posted here Nov 13th for the Dow has sent the price back down as I predicted. As a reminder, here are the sort of initial levels we could be looking at.

So, for me the Dow is pulling back before the next leg down. I've put the fib onto this H6 chart, and what I'm looking at first of all is the 50% which, because it sits on top of the 100sma is a potential reversal level as the price often pulls back off or near the 200ema/sma back up towards the 100sma before turning south again. You will see this everywhere on any time frame. Above that we have the 61.8%. If it pulls back higher than that, I'll post again, because then we are either headed for new highs, or the 76.4% could be in play.

The 76.4% retrace has just been broken to the upside on the stronger than expected NFP on the Dow, but I'd like to add a narrower critical zone within my danger zone as posted above, that between 28,200-300. Here is my H6 Dow chart, and what looks to be the potential formation of a triple top, and /or a head & shoulder pattern. If the price does rise higher to challenge the all time high, then I will be watching this area very closely indeed for a possible turn around.

S&P for me is above all resistance, so it is the Dow I am paying great attention to, as I have potential strong resistance within or close to these levels given here.

Dow has just hit the lower end of my critical zone above, so let's see what she does?

Bingo!

Dow could still move higher of course, but that's a 120 pip drop from within my critical zone, and I think that now the odds are greater for further falls from this level than they are for a break out above it, at least for today.

The Dax is SO building for a 1000+ pip drop imminently. Note the critical level posted here Nov 23rd. Dax has stalled just beneath it, and now to me looks set to drop, or close to it.

The Dax hasn't gone anywhere, so still just below my critical zone, but the Dow this morning broke above the top limit of the Danger zone posted above, just, by 11 pips before snapping back, and is now once again within the zone. This is not to say that the Dow & S&P aren't bullish right now, they are, but as we all know, this can change quickly, especially once resistance has been hit, and the same for support when travelling south. Look back at your historical charts and you'll see how quickly major bull and bear markets come to an end, and almost always, very few people have any idea that they have done.

If prices blow through my resistance levels posted on this thread, then I'll admit I was wrong, and look for higher levels, but until they do, I still see a significant possibility that prices are peaking or have peaked on the big euro and US indecis.

As I said above, the Dow for now is holding within the upper limit of my ' Danger Zone '. I have clear potential resistance here, and this is why I drew in this zone a few weeks ago on this thread. However, when I look at the S&P 500, I see a very different story, because the price has now broken above any resistance levels I have on any of my bigger time frames, so that's daily and above, and now in completely clear water from a technical perspective, looks unstoppable. So Dow shows that we may be at or close to a top, but the S&P shows me no such thing, so which do we go with?

Personally, I prefer the Dow, it's what I trade, but many prefer the S&P as they consider it a more accurate representation of the US stock market. If they are right, then there's nothing to be even remotely bearish about right now. The Fed is piling trillions of dollars of liquidity into the US banking system right now, and US stocks are rising strongly as a result, but this is not wealth creation, this is a massive speculative bubble which will come crashing down sooner or later, 100%, and as the US debt level continues to grow and as the real US economy continues to contract, the coming crash is so inevitable that it is not a question of if, but one of when. My best guess is some time next year, and I very much doubt that the US will head into the November 2020 election before this crash takes place.

All I have to go on right now with the S&P technically is a diversion pattern on the monthly chart with MACD, though RSI will also show this. Nothing is confirmed yet, and the price can continue to rise above where it is now whilst retaining the diversion pattern, up to I would say around 3,400-500 or so. Above that, and the MACD ribbon will be more or less level with the previous high in Sept 2018, and the diversion will have broken down.

Stay tuned.

The Dow is now back inside my ' Danger Zone ' beneath 28,500 having broken through it last week. The Dax as posted above, is still looking like it's about to fall over a cliff, and the S&P is up there suspended with no resistance in sight but with diversion on the monthly.

End or year profit taking? Sure, but it remains to be seen whether these three big indecis can get back up to the highs of last week.

Happy New Year my friend, from down here in Oz!

In line with your comments, I agree.... And with the new film coming out, this is only fitting !

To you too buddy. Hope 2020 is a great year for you

For those popping into this thread from time to time, a very Happy New Year to all of you.

The reason for this latest post is a beautiful weekly doji on Dow. Yes, the price broke above my 'Danger Zone ', but not to a level far enough above it where I would capitulate and say all market top predictions are off the table, especially because the pattern I have on the weekly very often blows above the resistance level, before snapping back to come down hard.

I have as much idea of how this US/Iran development will play out over the coming days/weeks as anyone else, so I will not comment upon that except to say that it comes at a time when I believe US and Euro equities are very finely poised as to the direction they go, so this act of war by the US against Iran ( because this it what it is whichever way you look at it ) could well turn out to be the catalyst which ends the bull run.

Here's the doji, which may well be a huge signal for traders to start hitting the sell buttons. The S&P 500 weekly candle is also a doji, and if you've been following this thread recently, you'll know that I see the Dax as potentially about to fall off a cliff.

We will know soon enough.

As you know, I've been signalling the precariousness of the Dax for some weeks on this thread, saying that to me it has been shaping up for a big fall for quite sometime. I drew in my resistance level above on this page, and the price has not managed to get above this. Now, it looks like the fall may well be underway. First support level I'm looking at is the Daily 100sma which I have at 12,870, though i expect the price to fall lower than this, though it may react to the upside before rolling over and pushing lower.

If you read my last post, you'll know that I drew attention to the very powerful looking weekly Doji on both the Dow and the S&P, combined with the other potential bearish indicators I have highlighted above, such as the divergence pattern with MACD on the monthly S&P.

Should be an extremely interesting week.