Trading Institutional Order Flow

Hi Everyone,

Have been studying S&D for a whilke now and my main struggle is the MTF.

I day trade and my goal is to trade the 30/15/5 min with a daily bias.

Am i right in thinking that i should use the daily for my directional bias for example understanding if Supply or Demand in control?

I then drop to the 30 to identify the intraday zones and look for entries in that zone with the daily direction in mind?

I have created a shirt doc and video of my thoughts(file size to large)?

Happy for comment/criticism.

I think my main issue is not waitng for fresh zones, i alos try to trade pullbacks on the lowe time frames to the next sones.

TIA
Mitch

Hi There,

New to the thread and have been studying S&D for while, great videos on YT btw!!

Im trying to get my head around top dwon analysis.

I feel i can spot zones pretty well (of coursde in hindsight better).

Just wondering if someone can help me out with some confirmation or criticsm on my approach.

I want to trade intraday (D,60,15,5) and it doesnt seem to be working out for me at present.

I start with a daily and look to determin overall major trend, understand who is in control, i.e working off of supply or demand to the next level.

I then drop to the 60 to look for zones in the dirrection of the daily bias.

15 i use for entries.

My question is should i be using the 60 zone to zone fro stops and targets and tehn the 15 for confirmation entries and if so should i wait for a break in market structure or price to dip into zone and then out again with an entry, stop and target taken off the 15?

I have created a bit of a doc and some videos that hopefully explain my process (vids to large so have posted a YT link, excuse the voice and first time suing YT so nothing glitzy LOL.

Any advice would be welcomed, i thinkl my main issues are the common ones, preperation, confusion with MTFA and my patience, for expample i am trying to trade pullbacks to the next major zone, which i see as as viable but this is often thouyght about after the fact/hindsight.

TIA.



Mitch

Looks Great, would you mind giving me some tips on how to refine the zones down to the 5 min - do you only take trades in the higher time frame zones and then look for entries once left the zone?

Hi Guys view on CAD CHF 15 min, Daily ranging any comments?

Hi Guys,

So this my post anlysis reveiew of the CADCHF trade i missed.

Hope its ok to post here?

Hello Mi11tch, If your biggest time frame is Daily, I see there was two trades, one is impulse (short) and second aggressive corrective - bear trap (long), both worked very well

Daily


1h short with confirmation, since price did't reach embedded zone


and bear trap on 1h

That's what I see

Hi guys. My name is Thabani Mhlongo, I am from Durban South Africa and have been trading for 3 years now (unsuccessfully)...I am quite glad to have come across this thread and literally only joined forex factory so I can participate. I am very familiar with the supply and demand trading methodology but my struggle is timing my entries and navigating timeframes, is there any material I can read or a proper step by step video I can watch. I just want to catch up so i dont have to ask questions that have been asked a million times.

Update, it just hit my TP (i move it bcs of that DBD Level on top of level scenario)

CAD/JPY 1D

CAD/JPY 4H

Another trade that im still on -> AUD/JPY
Sequence : Weekly, Daily & 4H
Thought process : Price at Daily Supply -> Sell (tested for the 2nd time), why supply ? Confluence with Ascending Trendline
4H : Confirmation entry after 4H Ascending Trendline had been broken

AUD/JPY 1D

AUD/JPY 4H

And please, correct me if i'm wrong

Thanks ykn4f.

A few questions if I may, so when price approaches the htf zone 1D you will have the entry timeframe zones marked out inside. your image shows an embedded fresh zone, if price were to reach that then you would already have a limit order set? Or would you wait for confirmation, break of momentum line(trend line from the two most recent high/low swings of the move) then enter at limit on retest of the newly created zone.

Also can I ask does price need to leave the htf zone for it to be confirmation (within the guidelines of creating a new supply demand zone, time spent, strong move etc.) Or does it just need to break the momentum, from what I understand this is by creating in your example a lower high after the series of HH HL HH HL etc.

My personal preference will be to wait for confirmation whilst learning and overtime gain more experience as to what will likely hold.

In regards to stops, I put mine at the distal line plus a few pips to account for spread and also if price breached the level the zone is technically not a zone anymore?

In regards to targets, if entering on a shorter time frame the 60 min are targets placed based on the entry timeframe, ie any base that is formed in the short term time time frame would be your target or would you play the htf being stronger and in this case it being a range that it will likely return to the opposing zone.

I suppose the above question comes from my understanding of the approach to the zone. You don't want a base just before the zone that is going to eat up your profit margin. But would appreciate it if you could advise on which time frame to use for targets as there may be based on the 60 on the way up and subsequently back down.

Thanks for the marked up charts, I think I have figured out what I was doing wrong. I was trying to take trades to the daily levels on shorter time frames and then take the move out of a zone again, I think I'm being impatient, overtime I assume you can use the same principle using the lower time frames but you need to have a logical order, I believe it should be a a multiple of 4,5 or 6 as per Alexander elders triple screen trading.

Hope that all makes sense and I certainly appreciate your time to mark up the charts in explanation.

Hi everyone, Im new on this topic, can anyone help me to draw a supply and demand zones correctly?
Thank you!

Hello Mi11tch, for me personally I would already have a limit order waited there, but it's always depends on traders rules
No, price don't need to leave htf zone to be confirmation
Regarding stops and targets again it's all depends on trader personality and rules, but yeah first target nice to have on entry tf

Thanks,

In terms, I think I'd prefer to wait for confirmation I don't mind missing a trade for a little more probability. Also would give me more screen time and would have to practice patience more.

In terms of sequence, I'm a little confused.

The way I see, it is daily 240 use for set and forget and 60 for confirmation trades or set and forget. Is the 240 just to refine the zone further or to make sure it's fresh.

Also would the same sequences below be appropriate.
240,60,15
60,15,5
30,15,1

I suppose the same goes for the above but if you were using the lower time frames would you "ignore" the daily for analysis to remove a directional bias. I would likely have the zones marked out just for high probability turning points but I'm finding if I'm trading in the shorter timeframes it confuses me slightly as to what I should be waiting for. Or should I be trying to trade I. The daily zones predominately, or just use the daily to understand what is in control supply and demand?

Hello Everyone, is there any video or articles by ATK on how to understand trend using Supply and Demand? Thanks

My friends, i'm new here and trying to learn this method. Will post chart on NZDDJPY and would love to hear some feedbakc. Thanks a lot.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gxFHUa9Y/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AwqBlhf7/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rGcS0O7G/
It is my first tme posting here so sorry for some mistake in pictures or posts.

Hello tganjos
Thank you for sharing your charts on the NZDJPY

if i may, although you do not say what trade you are considering, long or short, i would like to comment on the demarcation of zones.

When drawing in zones, there are a few things to consider to help in isolating the zone.
First is identifying the zone by identifying the significant move away in price.
Second is, when drawing in the lines, the goal is to encapsulate the base as much as possible, trying to place the lines as close to the origin of the said significant move as possible.
Finally, in drawing in your zones, you also have to decide how you want to isolate the base - drawing the lines from the highest wick to lowest close or open in the base (in the case of supply) or from the lowest wick to highest open or close in the base (in the case of demand).

Great start though

best wishes

Hello jayfxtrading
Welcome to T.I.O.F

I wrote this a few years ago on the topic of trends. Hope it helps.


A DISCUSSION ABOUT TRENDS

I would like to address this age-old discussion and issues around the idea of the Trend. My view is from my time as a trader and my experience with trading or trying to trade trends. It is just my view, nothing else.

It is a topic that divides most traders.
There are countless ways traders define trend – moving averages, ADX, price action, etc.

For us as SAD traders, we use the inter-relationship between supply and demand zones to define trends.

Supply zones being created and respected = Downtrend
Demand zones being created and respected = Uptrend

A definition of trend that has totally changed how I look at them is this:
Trends are only the movement of price between higher timeframe supply and demand levels.

If price is moving from higher timeframe supply to higher timeframe demand we are in a downtrend.
If price is moving from higher timeframe demand to higher timeframe supply then we are in an uptrend.

By this definition, once I have identified the Curve SZ and the curve DZ I simply go to the second chart, the trend chart, to determine the trend on that chart (please note that it is not the curve timeframe chart that I determine the trend on, it is the middle chart of my sequence of 3, the intermediate chart (more on this later).

By its very definition, a trend is something that has already happened. It is only recognised after the fact.

Now, what causes the most confusion is deciding on a trade direction once the trend direction is determined. We have all heard the age-old trading phrase, “The trend is your friend” and others like “Don’t fight the trend”, “Don’t try to catch a falling knife” etc.

Well, to start with, Ed Seykota, the legendary trader made a little addition to the phrase “the trend is your friend”. He said, “The trend is your friend, UNTIL THE BEND AT THE END”.

To add to Ed Seykota’s point, another legendary and extremely wealthy trader, Paul Tudor Jones said the following about trends in general, “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms”.

Allow me to use the Newton’s fundamental laws of motion to explain trends and what happens to them. These laws are easily found on Google. I just picked the first link on a google search

Newton’s first law of motion:
Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.

Newton’s first law of motion adapted to Trends:
Every Trend in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion until an external force (An opposing larger timeframe zone) is applied to it.

The reason a lot of traders say trade in the direction of the trend is because trends do obey this first law – a trend will continue in its current direction hence the view that the trend is a friend.
A trend will continue in its current direction UNTIL “the bend at the end” comes when this trend reaches an opposing LARGER timeframe zone, for example, a downtrend on a weekly chart reaching a monthly demand zone; or a daily uptrend reaching a weekly supply zone.

So it is for this reason that it is critical that we know where we are on the CURVE before we go ahead to follow any trend and not just follow the trend blindly.

In the supply demand methodology it is at this point that the concept of “Zone in control” comes in.

If price is at an extreme i.e. at either curve timeframe supply or curve timeframe demand then that zone is said to be in control (if at curve supply zone then that zone is in control; if at curve timeframe demand then demand is in control)

Newton’s second law of motion:
The relationship between an object's mass m, its acceleration a, and the applied force F is F = ma

Newton’s second law of motion adapted to Trends:
The force needed to stop and change a trend must be larger than the force available on the timeframe the trend is identified on. That force by definition can only come from a higher timeframe

To stop an uptrend, you need a “mass” of sellers and for there to be no more buyers (a loss of buying momentum).
We can only find enough of a mass of sellers on a timeframe higher than the one we are looking at the trend on
We assess momentum or acceleration using trend lines as taught by Alfonso
The combination of finding enough of a mass of sellers (arriving at the larger timeframe supply zone), the lack of more buyers and the loss of momentum shown by a trend line break tells us that the trend is no longer up and may soon become down.

Newton’s third law of motion:

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Newton’s third law of motion adapted to trends: This is how sideways markets are born
For every wave of buying that there is an equal and opposite wave of selling for, we will have no overall movement, resulting in a sideways market

best wishes

Thank you for the warm welcome ATK, I am so happy to be here. I also want to thank you again for the article on trend...

Thanks, AKT! i would consider go short when supply is touched. Will atetion to the lines. And, once more, thaks for this trend/thread (sorry for the english mistake... Brazil here).

Hello follower traders and ATK please I have a question, I have attached a chart on how I see EURUSD playing out any feedback will be highly appreciated.