WTI Crude Oil Trading

I made some today

I am short now again from 59.05. I did not trade oil since may I guess cause i just want to buy, but I said friday wtf.

Good! Well yeah, it is hard to enter the counter-direction since we do not know for sure where the "inflection point" is... ATM it still "fits" to UP... It is best to enter when it starts to slide already, almost forming "linear fit" and then we could just JUMP on the SLIDE To tell you the truth, do not like todays market(s) at all Except for very short (timeframe) sells OR lower leverage ones (when one can afford larger swings, spikes, counters, corrections)

there you go

But trump doesn't like high oil price

With the OPEC cuts, USMCA talks looking like tomorrow there could be a deal, and rumors coming out that US-China trade talks are back on WTI could easily break $60 in the near future. The biggest factor of those three though is of course the US-China trade relations. It all probably hinges on that.

I expect light volume as we saw today, leading up to FOMC on Wednesday. Take a look at CL in Dec so far. Looking strong:

WTI jumps above $59 boosted by upbeat ZEW data
10 December 2019, 12:26

 

1. ZEW data from Germany eases concerns over economic slowdown in eurozone.
2. Goldman Sachs raises Brent target to $63 from $60 after OPEC decision.
3. Coming up: API's Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

Crude oil prices came under modest selling pressure during the early trading hours of the European session and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate dropped toward mid-$58s before gaining traction in the last hour. As of writing, the WTI was up 0.4% on the day at $59.25.
Signs of life in the European economy
The upbeat ZEW survey, which showed the Economic Sentiment both in Germany and the eurozone improved sharply in December, seems to have provided a boost to crude oil prices by easing concerns over the potential negative impact of a deep economic slowdown in the euro area on the energy demand.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs announced that it raised the 2020 Brent oil average price forecast to $63 from $60 following the OPEC+ decision to deepen the oil output cuts by 500,000 barrels per day. Similarly, Russia's Gazprom Neft CEO Alexander Dyukov noted that the additional supply curbs would help support oil prices at $55-65 per barrel in the first quarter, as per Interfax news agency.
Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institue will be releasing its Weekly Crude oil Stock data.

Looks like it’s winding up to do something may get 60+ this week

Another short 59.18

Hope you have more luck than me. Took a tick but price isn't moving much lower

at least i earned a big mac menu

EIA raises forecast for 2020 world oil demand growth by 50,000 barrels per day
10 December 2019, 19:17

In its monthly report, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that it left the 2019 world oil demand growth expectations unchanged at 0.75 million barrels per day (bpd) but raised the forecast for 2020 by 50,000 (bpd) to 1.42 million bpd, as reported by Reuters.
Crude oil's reaction to this publication was relatively muted. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was up 0.55% on the day at $59.20 and the barrel of Brent was adding 0.4% at $64.30.

WTI BETTER BID INTO WALL STREET CLOSING HOUR, BUOYED BY OPEC+
10 December 2019, 22:13

 

1. WTI prices edging higher within the ascending channel.
2. Bulls cheering the OPEC+ production cuts while price trades above 50% mean reversion and confluence level.

Oil was a touch firmer on Tuesday with West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.56% to $59.49/bbl on the day. However, elsewhere, the market's were less active as investors wait for bigger fish to fry later in the week. There have been the usual conflicting trade headlines which markets seem to have started to ignore.

The latest came in the Wall Street Journal which stated that unnamed officials from both sides of the negotiations were reporting that they were laying the groundwork for a delay in a fresh round of tariffs set to kick in on the 15th December. The WSJ reported that both sides were continuing to “haggle over how to get Beijing to commit to massive purchases of US farm products President Trump is insisting on for a near-term deal.”
OPEC is a bullish development for energy markets
Meanwhile, deeper production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, which were agreed last week in Vienna, remains a bullish outcome for the energy markets as reflected in the reaction in the price of oil. An extra 500,000 barrels a day from oil production beginning in January will be taken off the market, which brings total cuts to 1.7 million barrels.

Analysts at TD Securities explained that "energy markets have found their footing in the aftermath of OPEC's 'beautiful surprise'. While the cartel ultimately managed to deliver a positive surprise — thereby decreasing the market's expectation for oversupply — inventories are still set to grow in the coming quarters."

WTI levels
The price is rising in an ascending channel and beyond a 50% mean reversion of the September swing highs and early October swing lows in the 58.60s. A continuation opens the confluence of a 78.6% retracement of the same range and the July peaks around 60.80. A break to the downside, however, opens the 200-day moving average and that 50% retracement confluence around 57.20.

Still waiting now 58.10 as TP with both trades

WTI OIL STRUGGLES ON SURPRISE CRUDE BUILD
11 December 2019, 04:28

 

1. WTI is under pressure, likely due to surprise US inventory buildup.
2. A close below Tuesday's low would confirm a short-term bearish reversal.

WTI oil prices are flashing red in the Asian session with buyers sitting on the fence, possibly due to the surprise inventory buildup in the US.
At press time, a barrel of WTI is changing hands at $58.90, representing a 0.50% drop on the day.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday estimated an inventory build-up of 1.41 million barrels for the week ended Dec.4 compared to expectations of a 2.763-million-barrel drop in inventory.
The inventory report, which applied brakes to the oil rally near $59.50 in the overnight trade, is likely keeping the black gold on the defensive at press time.

While the benchmark is currently reporting losses on the day, it is still up more than 6.5% on a month-to-date basis.
Oil prices are expected to remain bid in 2020, courtesy of the recent decision by the OPEC and Russia to deepen production cuts. Goldman Sachs has increased the WTI spot price outlook to $58.5 per barrel for 2020 from $55.5. The bank has also revised its Brent spot price forecast to $63 per barrel for 2020, up from a previous estimate of $60.

Technical levels
The short-term trend would turn bearish if prices close below $58.54 on Wednesday, validating Tuesday's spinning top candle.

Almost there baby!

They tried their hardest to get me off my short this morning. Closed already, sentiment still bullish

Nice trading champ

WTI (CL 01-20 contract) bounced on weekly pivot point

I know the feeling most of the day wti was ranging (pre EIA inventory numbers)
Only managed to scalp a few ticks on 4M chart enough for a decent meal.

You'll catch the next one!

I actually did catch it closed at 58.31, a little early cause I don’t trust any bearish moves

No champ missed for 4 cents