WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

Made some (small) opportunistic trade today, +2.3% added... Was planning to enter SOUTH after... but wasn't sure since market is somewhat weird/stall right now... Will let it role and track all the data for the price prediction model and then re-estimate the possible direction during the weekend... I expect to start entering larger (timeframe) trades next week, beginning of it, should all systems look nominal So yeah, for now, SOUTH seems to be the safe bet, still... Stay tuned!

Markets are a little messy now... Will wait for it to roll... Will also evaluate the trend/direction over the weekend and specially the next week... First half of it, most likely.. Just to be sure if SOUTH direction is still best choice for this. I would say it is, but need to confirm... I might also re-set or enter new TE for this, fresh one, in the beginning of December... Will be posting trade ideas as posts till then... and at the end of the next week (end of NOV)... I will estimate what kind of TE specs would be best... and from that would see what type of account, broker, balance (REAL money) would be best, at least to display here...

I am thinking about making two TEs... for this thread... One for like 25% return (at 5% DD)... And one 100% return (at 25% DD)... For more return we have other thread (CHEETAH), for more/extremely aggressive trading... https://www.energyexch.com/showthread.php?t=961438

But this thread will remain for a more conservative trading approach... with 2 versions... "Smart Money" one... 25%/5% (Return, DrawDown)... and one somewhat OPTIMAL one at 100%/25% (Return, DrawDown)...

I think we must have two because I believe many traders here start with rather small deposit... so anything below 100% would not mean much... I mean what is 100USD to 125USD in a year... but at 100% with only 25% DD (exposure)... I think some would be willing to bet 1k USD in order to get 2k USD... out, meaning 1k profit which averages like 80USD/month... (if one would be spending this in the 12 months after)... which is not bad... And since DD would only be 25%... one could invest(borrow) 10k.... and get 20k OUT.. while risking basically only 2.5k... So for a risk of 2.5k... to get 20k out is not bad right Ok...
Expect more trading data next week...

P.S. I believe we will have some EPIC (last) 3 trading weeks of this year, 2019.... Because in the mid of DEC... it starts to slow down (from previous experience)... since Christmas, New Year approaching... So I expect some EPIC (representative) trading in the next 3weeks... 25NOV19-13DEC19... At which point full summary/review/analysis will happen... So that we can start preparing the trading (TS) strategy for 2020...

So I expect lots happening in the next 3+ weeks Stay tuned!

I have detected some strange anomalies/consolidations for the next 2 days, MON,TUE... So will give you the direction (trade overview) from 27th of NOV on... Please stay tuned...

What about this (added 25.7%/trade today)... was extremely risky though Not because of the direction but since I entered it high-leverage style and there were some turbulence, entered max position almost... But seemed a good idea at the time Will most probably reduce risk next time... because for high-risk we have CHEETAH thread... Still sub-optimal parameters according to my model... but this one seemed almost a must... but I should have stuck to my parameters/indicators... meaning not trading for today and tomorrow... Most probably will resume on WED (27th)... Stay tuned!

To others also:
So yeah, you can check this trade in the attached (thread) TE...

Took a quick dip at max 100:1... 6.6%/trade added.. Not bad...
Check attached TE to this thread for details... took a big counter before started moving to right direction... Will track it further but didn't want to push it for the reason it went counter (up) before it went when I wanted it to (down) BTW this thread was SPIN-OFF CHEETAH signal at later stage, in another thread of mine...

short wti (short signal), 60% certain

SUCCESS

EXITed... Took profit... added +9.9% to attached TE, go look, all timestamped...
Cloesed (early) because I do not want to be exposed overnight (even though I had to pay for SWAP!) and also Thanksgiving, Black Friday... can not afford to take that chance... But yeah, 9.9% not bad right... So that would be it for this week for mentioned reasons... Hope you enjoyed the journey so far Current RoMaD for attached TE is 2.5+... Which means... Return 54.7% is over 21.6% DrawDown... Not bad right... I will most probably roll it till little over 100% return in order to have RoMaD=5... at which point I would stop trading for this TE.. for it's calendar year in order not to overtrade... I set the objectives before and I stick to it... So enjoy your week(end)

Wow some epic potential was at this entry The direction seems to be SPOT on... Will see about what happens next week! Very curious to see...
We have like about 2 weeks of trading left ahead of us, for this year (2019).. Since after the mid of DEC.. usually everything slows down, much...
Hope the SOUTH that was predicted consistently.. in this thread (and others).. is still there.. after this massive drop that was under-harvested, at least in my case

Took a little BUY-profit today, unexpectedly (since I am looking for SELL/SHORT opportunities since I believe in the SOUTH).. There was no time to post before the trade... You can see the trade in the attached TE... It was 21.1%/trade... at 100:1... Also, this trade was a candidate for CHEETAH, but you see it was really precise... But I do not like it since it was against the believed trend/direction... I just saw it and decided to enter.. wasn't in trade long though... Didn't enter full position so it added to about +12% to my overall return... So yeah, stay tuned! I suspect more SELLS follows.. to be seen, to be confirmed Hope you like the TE... RoMaD is now 3+! Which is spectacular... Will decide if should push it to 5... But that would be the limit for this kind of trading, for this thread... For the ones that would like to make higher, at considerable higher/max risk... CHEETAH thread might more appropriate Also guys, just thinking... I might not be "designed" for this "slow gains" or "marathon trades" so I am thinking of thinking even this thread at 100:1 Might adjust positions a little, to like 20-100% position size... But I much prefer less trades with higher impact... with high(est) certainty as possible of course... So now that I have reached RoMaD=3+... will THINK if I should push it further at all.. Will be selective about further trades much more now... But will publish the believed trends/directions... either way... Keep tracking, would recommend you subscribe to me since I post in other threads also... Specially Cheetah

Here is the screenshot of last trade.. you can also check it yourself in the attached TE, linked to this thread.. as before...

Heh, that was quick, just noticed epic SHORT opportunity... entered it... almost FULL position at 100:1...
timestamped BEFORE entering the trade, here... https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...8#post12643178, https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...6#post12643186

This one was 9.6%/trade.. but added about +6% to total RETURN.. So RoMaD=3.3+... Was planning to hold it longer but didn't want to push todays luck
So glad back on SHORT trades... Stay tuned... Since there might not be many left till I reach RoMaD=5... which would be accomplished at return at about 110%... which can be just few trades away

Hope you happy with the thread/TE.. although Cheetah seems to be much more interesting if you want/try FAST/QUICK

Check the trade.. EPIC entry/exit... although under-harvested

A little update on the "Return by Trade" chart

Ok guys... planning to deposit new TE with LIVE money/lots... Will leave this one for display, for some time at least.. RoMaD is not bad; it is 3.3...
But I plan to deposit new.. as since some of you know... when you deposit new money, stat gets distorted, adapted to new total deposits.. hence I will be building new TE.. But would really appreciate if you can post about what TE do you strive for... Return, DD, *desired max risk/trade?

Anyway, would still bet on THE SOUTH ;D

Please vote about what kind of TE (TradeExplorer) would you like to see attached in this thread... You can also type as post... would like to here from you... also to see how many people are actually reading this... Would be a great motivation to see many responses or at least votes, tnx...

SHORTING! (now - in trade already)

EXIT... Won't push luck too much at this hour Small review follows shortly...

This trade had 20%+/trade potential at 100:1 max position and was also PERFECT candidate for CHEETAH style at 500:1 max... so 100%+/trade was possible in about 20 minutes! Hope anyone appreciates this...

Just made substantial analysis and I RE-AFFIRM my beliefs in WTI SOUTH trend...

Will post more trades/signals.... (trend-surfing) style..

Tnx for the votes! Keep on voting, atm the favourites are (Return/DrawDown(DD)): 100%/20% and 25%/5%

Heh, just after I posted... went DOWN CHEETAH style missed to timestamp the EXACT entry in that very THREAD, but they still could get that 100%/trade

Some after-math of above signal... Man, was sure a good... but you had to EXIT at the right time, meaning to being to greedy since it rebounded AFTER
See here....

Ppl, please vote a little, to give me some clue for desired TE... Atm, counting my vote, 100%/20% (Return/DD) seems to be the preferred choice Seems right for me... Also, would still bet on the SOUTH, just need to re-check what this rebound is about... but over-all... for the last 2 weeks of DEC... would bet on SHORT/SOUTH.. if I had to choose now... More might be seen soon, by the end of the week, should all go well... Would still bet on SHORT right now...