Trade Global Macro and Price Action with us!

Hi everyone, and welcome to this thread. We are Numanti Investment Partners, an independent financial firm that strives to be your investment partner of choice to tackle the changing landscape of global markets. We are based on Spain, and slowly but surely growing our base of customers and service portfolio. We decided to create this thread as you might be interested in what we can offer to you! We will share from time to time some of our analysis and calls, methodologies and market ideas/news.

Who are we?

A bunch of guys with different institutional backgrounds but with one mission: to become a reliable source of market analysis and strategies for traders with different skill levels. We are macro based analysts with a focus on pure naked price action trading.

What do we do?

We provide you with quality research and analysis in a timely manner. We bring economics and strategy together to deliver what you need when you need it. Our different packages enable you to analyze the currency market with a mixture of forex research reports both based on macro perspectives and price action, along with market strategies, ideas and forecasts based on our proprietary fair price value models. You will get these reports on a daily or weekly basis depending upon the kind of report that is to be released.

What tools we use?

Tradingview for charts
Ransquawk for research and latest news
Reuters Eikon for research, data and latest news
Quandl as a data source for our models

How do we do it?

Our premise is simple, when we speculate on currency markets, we are comparing two economies and deciding to buy the currency that will appreciate against the currency that will depreciate. Meaning that we will be moving value from one country to another. To speculate, we go long on a currency and short to another. We buy one, to sell the other in the hope that in the future, assets backed by our investing process will appreciate to our benefit. Our jobs as traders is to anticipate where the money will flow and where it will come from, hence your trade ideas should come from your macro perspective, and then be filtered considering price action and technical analysis

What do you get from our services as a customer?

Weekly Global Macro Reports that point the evolving strength on each economy and recommendations to frame trades based on such analysis.
Daily and Weekly Technical Screener Reports that analyze currency price behavior and allows you to time trades based on macro recommendations
Daily and Weekly Price Action Reports that analyze current and past price developments based on current liquidity and volatility conditions
An online trading chat open to fellow traders and our firm analysts.

Each week you receive:

A Weekly Global Macro Report
4 Daily Technical Report
1 Weekly Technical Report
4 Daily Price Action Report
1 Weekly Price Action Report

1 + 4+ 1+ 4 +1 = 11 x 4 weeks = 44 monthly reports, for 73$ per month (1,65$ per report!! - less than a daily cup of coffee!)

Attached you can get one of our calls for NZDUSD we did back in October, surely gave us some pips in the last two months!

Feel free to visit us on twitter @Numanti_IP, or in our website Numanti.es.

A monthly chart on GBPUSD with 1.32 as the most probable target in the near term after yesterday retest on 1.31. Cannot dismiss the possibility of a retest on 1.30 for further gains. 1.36 is probably a potential good target for the next months.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELLEgzmX...png&name=large

Yes Macro Reports Can Be Helpful To Determine Direction. Can it be Made in the Form of an Indicator which indicates the Events and Price Action Outcome

In our case, its not a pure indicator. We use 20 macroeconomical and financial indicators to gauge the current status of an economy (and its possible future outcome). We then compare each economies, and frame ideas based on this analysis.

Hello guys,

just wanted to introduce an example of our technical screener, that we use together with our macro analysis. You have a full example report attached. Hope you find it interesting.

This tool should not be used in an isolated manner to enter trades. Rather, it should be used as a filter to identify possible new opportunities or interesting points that should be researched later with the help of your macroeconomic BIAS, COT Screener and price action manual analysis. This tool was born to solve a common issue that almost all traders suffer: I got 28 pairs to watch over each day, where should I focus as I have limited capital and time?

Pair Analysis

The table merely represents a snapshot of the market on any given time. It uses several technical indicators to give us a quick overview of what is going on in each pair. It is important to mention that this vision is always based on past price action. Is not predictive, it is descriptive. We separate this vision in two variables:
• Trend → 2 EMA’s
• Momentum → A mixture of RSI, MACD and ATR.

The Trend give us a perspective of where it is going on a medium-longer term, while momentum help us to evaluate if money was flowing out or in on any given day. If trend is bullish, it will probably keep being bullish for some days even if bearish momentum starts to accumulate. While momentum is a binary indicator, either money flows in and price moves upwards, or it goes out and price moves downwards.

Daily Money Flows

Aggregated for each currency, this shows us the overall status of what happened on the day: is money flowing in or out of the currency. If money is overall coming into a currency, it means that it must come from somewhere.

Daily Trend

Aggregated for each currency, this shows us the overall status of trends within a currency. It is getting stronger or weaker? The same concept applies, if a currency is getting stronger as the days passes by, one or other currencies must be feeding that currency.

Daily Differential Money Flow- Trend

A key indicator to look for future price action. Its merely the difference between the momentum and trend. If it is negative, it means that although a currency might be trending upwards the current momentum is bearish. This could point to a trend reversal, or a possible good moment to look for positions that reenter into the established trend.

A positive value indicates that although the trend is negative, momentum is accumulating on the other side hence could mean a trend reversal or a good moment to look for positions that reenter into the established trend.

Daily Aggregate Money Flows + Trend

A key indicator to look for future price action. It sums up both the momentum and trend, with the objective of identifying when both are pointing in the same direction. A currency cannot hold for a long time both a strong trend and momentum, which might indicate that a reversal might be close

Hi guys, some of you might be wondering how you build a macroeconomic model. In our case, we build such a model using these indicator. You need to have an idea of the current situation (inflationary or not), and where it might go in the future and how main actors might or not act based on those. Trading from a global macro (fundamental) perspective is nothing more than matching expanding deflationary currencies with expanding inflationary ones.

1. ISM Manufacturing
2. Non-Manufacturing ISM
3. UMCSI (Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan)
4. Building Permits
5. Federal Interest Rates (Effective Federal Funds Rate)
6. M2 Supply
7. Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation)
8. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
9. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average
10. Producer Price Index by Commodity for Final Demand: Finished Goods
11. Producer Price Index by Commodity for Final Demand: Finished Goods Less Foods and Energy
12. Oil prices
13. Employment Situation Report (ESR) – NFP
14. Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
15. Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
16. Federal Outlays: Interest as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
17. Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
18. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
19. Central Bank Assets to GDP for United States
20. Relative GDP Growth (Each quarter)
21. US Current Account Balance (Each quarter)
22. US Capital Account (Each quarter)

Hello people,

it's been a while since we posted. We have attached the trade recommendations we shared with our members this week.

Some questions that one of our members shared with us. We believe these ideas are beneficial to others.

For the weekly report can I open those trades now and if yes is it on the 1 min time frame? Also what would my SL and TP numbers be?

So, those are good questions.

For the weekly report can I open those trades now?

Definitely not just immediately as soon as you receive the report. They are ideas of a trend that could develop during the week. We need to monitor the pair, and if we are to enter a trade, 2 conditions need to apply:

 

1. Confirmed that the trend is in our expected direction
2. If trend is confirmed, then we wait for a retracement so we can optimally join the wave on a better position that if we were to blindly enter a trade. For that you can use a simple stochastic, and if we are bullish then we wait to enter when it’s on oversold terms, for example. Round numbers are also a big part of good points to enter.

The time of the day is critical when it comes to opening positions. Activity and volatility come at predictable times, and you should really only open your trades within those windows to maximize your chances. Majors tend to be the most active when London and New York overlaps (11 AM to 4PM London time). London open is my preferred option to open trades, but is just my way of doing things. You have also good moments of volatility when US economic data comes out, at 8:30 and 10 AM NY, most of the time.

On the 1 min time frame?

I highly not recommend any newbie entering trades on the 1min. It’s much easier to see the trends on higher timeframes, and then join them using a lower. For swing trades that might take a couple days to hit the targets, we recommend using the 4 hr and 1 hr to frame ideas, and 15 min to enter the trades once an oscillator gives a signal.

Also what would my SL and TP numbers be?

It all depends on your desired timeframe for the trade. It is not the same if you are scalping with the idea of closing the trade on the day, or if you are looking for a swing trade for a few days. In any case, we recommend using the ATR indicator as a measure of volatility. For swing trades, used on the weekly with a period of 5 weeks. For a scalp, on the daily with a period of 5 days. SL is generally entered below the latest candle low and target above high, if we believe the pair is to rally.

Generally, tend to focus on Highs and lows of every day, open and close. Those are important levels that will be tested in the future. Depending on price action around these points, we enter or not, and we set targets.

Obviously there is a lot of stuff to be discussed about these topics, there is much more on the mentoring to help you build a sound strategy around macro ideas . We will share with you the educational material we release to our mentees on another mail , so you can evaluate if it’s worth it.