{quote} yes i think same as your idea.. green pips... my idea is look at the below..{image}
If you fail to plan, Plan to fail
- #142
- Dec 4, 2019 8:04pm Dec 4, 2019 8:04pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2019 | 1,453 Posts
more short, plz
{quote} Very good possibility, but we are hovering around the 3110 area still. Strong support as of now
The SPX has retraced to the 50% Fib level of the recent sell off leg down.
Price briefly broke 3110 but then retraced to test 3115 and 3119.
The next scheduled news that will affect the SPX is NFP tomorrow. Traders will be looking towards this number as the ADP figure was pretty low compared to the predicted value. If NFP is also bad there will be volatility.
Entering a multi day trade at this point before the NFP value is known and baked into the market will be leaving things purely down to chance.
Nil desperandum
I think there is the potential for a short term 10 pip+ long off 3119. Now that the SPX has broken above this level and the 50% Fib retrace the picture is looking more bullish. I would be looking to be out of this position before the end of the US session. Unfortunately I am Christmas shopping today and not about to monitor this area or trade it.
Nil desperandum
Yesterday's scalp idea did not work and the SPX is still hovering around the vertical trendline ahead of the NFP.
NFP numbers this year have caused seemingly counter intuitive moves in prices. Lower than expected figures causing the SPX to rally on the increased
probability of FED intervention. Higher than expected figures having mixed price reaction.
Any sell off as a result of today's NFP it seems will lead to good buy on dip opportunities. Also buying into a surge northward on pullback's may be lucrative.
Following today's NFP shorting into a volatile market sell off is too risky to stop loss and price target effectively, I will not be looking to do this.
Anyone else have a strategy for NFP today?
NFP numbers this year have caused seemingly counter intuitive moves in prices. Lower than expected figures causing the SPX to rally on the increased
probability of FED intervention. Higher than expected figures having mixed price reaction.
Any sell off as a result of today's NFP it seems will lead to good buy on dip opportunities. Also buying into a surge northward on pullback's may be lucrative.
Following today's NFP shorting into a volatile market sell off is too risky to stop loss and price target effectively, I will not be looking to do this.
Anyone else have a strategy for NFP today?
Nil desperandum
Yesterday's scalp idea did not work and the SPX is still hovering around the vertical trendline ahead of the NFP. NFP numbers this year have caused seemingly counter intuitive moves in prices. Lower than expected figures causing the SPX to rally on the increased probability of FED intervention. Higher than expected figures having mixed price reaction. Any sell off as a result of today's NFP it seems will lead to good buy on dip opportunities. Also buying into a surge northward on pullback's may be lucrative. Following today's NFP shorting into a...
Notice the first minor pullback to the 23.8 % offers a chance to enter a move like this, but this is risky and only works when momentum is really strong.
Here it would have yielded 10 pips in a short time.
Nil desperandum
NFP very strong at 266k massively above the estimated 181k.
The weekly chart consequently formed a big hammer.
The SPX is racing ahead and looking very likely to continue north with 3200 in sight.
I see one area of support at 3135 and the horizontal trendline that has proved reliable on multiple occasions. A test of this support and / or trendline may well provide a low risk entry into the trend.
Any trade deal news of course could wreck this trade plan against the rocks.
The weekly chart consequently formed a big hammer.
The SPX is racing ahead and looking very likely to continue north with 3200 in sight.
I see one area of support at 3135 and the horizontal trendline that has proved reliable on multiple occasions. A test of this support and / or trendline may well provide a low risk entry into the trend.
Any trade deal news of course could wreck this trade plan against the rocks.
Nil desperandum
NFP very strong at 266k massively above the estimated 181k. The weekly chart consequently formed a big hammer. {image} The SPX is racing ahead and looking very likely to continue north with 3200 in sight. I see one area of support at 3135 and the horizontal trendline that has proved reliable on multiple occasions. A test of this support and / or trendline may well provide a low risk entry into the trend. Any trade deal news of course could wreck this trade plan against the rocks. {image}
I had a long position from 3133 and what was an initial bounce from support / trendline that quickly faded into a minor loss. I was looking for follow through on the NFP job data.
The recent trendline was also taken out and the entire up swing from NFP also gone. Price now at 3122 base support. The trendlines in the above chart are pretty much exhausted now, below is an updated view;
1. SPX failed to make new high (so far)
2. NFP rally given back
3. Potential trendline failure
This has raised some concern as to the direction and I am now looking to the following drivers.
1. Trumpy's tariff conundrum
2. Wednesday's FOMC info.
Nil desperandum
- #150
- Edited 3:15am Dec 11, 2019 2:25am | Edited 3:15am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
Ahead of the FOMC and Trumpy's deadline the SPX is looking interesting;
3133 is currently supported on the 1h chart. The news / tweet sell off yesterday quickly rallied back up.
The daily chart shows that price has so far failed to close below the 3133 level.
So this is another decisive point, in all probability I think the market wants to continue up from here, provided the FOMC and Trumpy don't dampen sentiment. I have some long positions that are set to withstand a certain amount of noise.
One more point - the UK election. If BOJO (Boris Johnson) wins his majority on Thursday this will lead to closure on the Brexit saga, also a positive input.
Updated chart showing the level of symmetry in the SPX, each diagonal trendline has the same gradient.
3133 is currently supported on the 1h chart. The news / tweet sell off yesterday quickly rallied back up.
The daily chart shows that price has so far failed to close below the 3133 level.
So this is another decisive point, in all probability I think the market wants to continue up from here, provided the FOMC and Trumpy don't dampen sentiment. I have some long positions that are set to withstand a certain amount of noise.
One more point - the UK election. If BOJO (Boris Johnson) wins his majority on Thursday this will lead to closure on the Brexit saga, also a positive input.
Updated chart showing the level of symmetry in the SPX, each diagonal trendline has the same gradient.
Nil desperandum
- #151
- Dec 11, 2019 8:11am Dec 11, 2019 8:11am
- Joined Jan 2019 | Status: "Ideas stimulate the mind" | 4,203 Posts
Let's see where we are going. {image}
where is the green line, the maximum resistance that I was hoping to sell, and it was pretty close, if the other one didn't work, let's see what it will be like until the end of the month..
I think the recession has begun.
Ahead of the FOMC and Trumpy's deadline the SPX is looking interesting; 3133 is currently supported on the 1h chart. The news / tweet sell off yesterday quickly rallied back up. {image} The daily chart shows that price has so far failed to close below the 3133 level. {image} So this is another decisive point, in all probability I think the market wants to continue up from here, provided the FOMC and Trumpy don't dampen sentiment. I have some long positions that are set to withstand a certain amount of noise. One more point - the UK election. If...
On the right side of Trumpy this time, price has exceeded my initial targets. I have taken advantage of this boost and closed out.
Nil desperandum
{quote} {image} On the right side of Trumpy this time, price has exceeded my initial targets. I have taken advantage of this boost and closed out.
Nil desperandum
A trade deal tweet in the last few minutes has caused a reaction bringing the SPX down to the support base at 3162. So far price has bounced back 10+ pips from here.
The most significant level I see on the chart is 3151. If price pulls back here there could be a decent reaction and an opportunity to resume long.
Notice how price pulled back to this level following Trumpy's tweets before launching up.
The most significant level I see on the chart is 3151. If price pulls back here there could be a decent reaction and an opportunity to resume long.
Notice how price pulled back to this level following Trumpy's tweets before launching up.
Nil desperandum
Happy New Year!
SP500 continues to crank higher.
There is the potential for profit taking into the New year and a pullback from current highs that look a little extended.
Areas I am watching for price reactions are marked on the chart. I will wait and see how events unfold into the first week of January before looking to enter any potential setups.
SP500 continues to crank higher.
There is the potential for profit taking into the New year and a pullback from current highs that look a little extended.
Areas I am watching for price reactions are marked on the chart. I will wait and see how events unfold into the first week of January before looking to enter any potential setups.
Nil desperandum
- #158
- Edited 4:33am Jan 3, 2020 2:33am | Edited 4:33am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
Happy New Year All!
The SP500 has sold off following the US actions against Iran.
More clues will feed in following US open today as to where the market will find support.
3150-3158 support region is the area that I am most interested in. 50 ema is sweeping up to this area. Also looking at how price acts at support areas above this such as 3213 and 3200 -3190 range.
NFP, FOMC and ISM data will also feed into the equation over the following week, the reaction to each being significant. Good job data and improved ISM's will point to a supported market.
Geopolitical escalation coupled with disappointing NFP and ISM's leading to a deeper pullback.
The SP500 has sold off following the US actions against Iran.
More clues will feed in following US open today as to where the market will find support.
3150-3158 support region is the area that I am most interested in. 50 ema is sweeping up to this area. Also looking at how price acts at support areas above this such as 3213 and 3200 -3190 range.
NFP, FOMC and ISM data will also feed into the equation over the following week, the reaction to each being significant. Good job data and improved ISM's will point to a supported market.
Geopolitical escalation coupled with disappointing NFP and ISM's leading to a deeper pullback.
Nil desperandum
Happy New Year All! The SP500 has sold off following the US actions against Iran. More clues will feed in following US open today as to where the market will find support. 3150-3158 support region is the area that I am most interested in. 50 ema is sweeping up to this area. Also looking at how price acts at support areas above this such as 3213 and 3200 -3190 range. NFP, FOMC and ISM data will also feed into the equation over the following week, the reaction to each being significant. Good job data and improved ISM's will point to a supported market....
All things being equal 3200 and 3150 - 3158 could be lucrative levels to trade.
Nil desperandum
{quote} 3213 acted as support intraday with a 10 point move up so far. All things being equal 3200 and 3150 - 3158 could be lucrative levels to trade. {image}
SP500 is in a consolidation that will be resolved if there is a decisive market driver.
Main factors to watch here are;
1. Trump vs Iran - Downside risk of geopolitical escalation.
2. NFP on Friday - Traders looking to evidence of economic strength
3. Trade deal with China. - Any unexpected shenanigans could way on markets
Nil desperandum