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  • #5,421
  • Dec 5, 2019 11:28am Dec 5, 2019 11:28am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Correct me if I'm wrong I'm always open to criticism In my opinion this happens quite a lot but I'm getting old and maybe seeing things NZD news out today. {image}
You are 100% correct. It happens a lot especially with NZ data. However last night was a little different in that the reaction occured before Orr's speech with the release of the bank capital review. It was very confusing because I believe the RBNZ's website crashed throughout both releases.

Also, sometimes depending on your broker you might see some volatility prior to the events. It can be legit but it can also be related to the broker widening spreads at release times.

Going back to NZD. I've noticed for quite some time that the kiwi will move prior to the data releases.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #5,422
  • Dec 5, 2019 11:42am Dec 5, 2019 11:42am
For information:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #5,423
  • Dec 5, 2019 12:14pm Dec 5, 2019 12:14pm
Quoting LCForex
For information: {image}
Hi LC , It's challenging last months high at the moment I'm bullish if it holds but we've had 5 up on the smaller frames so caution ...

Agree 55.40 poss

Can't see 50 at the moment
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,424
  • Dec 5, 2019 12:45pm Dec 5, 2019 12:45pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} You are 100% correct. It happens a lot especially with NZ data. However last night was a little different in that the reaction occured before Orr's speech with the release of the bank capital review. It was very confusing because I believe the RBNZ's website crashed throughout both releases. Also, sometimes depending on your broker you might see some volatility prior to the events. It can be legit but it can also be related to the broker widening spreads at release times. Going back to NZD. I've noticed for quite some time that the kiwi...
Hi ET, In my opinion it's not just Nzd I believe if you were to take the time and study the price prior to news (even in some cases weeks before) you can see probable direction. I don't think you are into Technical Analysis and I will never seriously look at fundies but if we both come to the same conclusion some day it's got to be a big one? LOL

I remember just before my trading started I was told to buy a share that was about to enter the FTSE100 because of it's results. I already had these shares and at the time I needed the money so I waited for a wee rise and sold. Three months later they had dropped around 60% so this was a lesson for me, don't trust anyone including your Granny LOL !
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,425
  • Dec 5, 2019 1:48pm Dec 5, 2019 1:48pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Hi LC , It's challenging last months high at the moment I'm bullish if it holds but we've had 5 up on the smaller frames so caution ... Agree 55.40 poss Can't see 50 at the moment
That is why you have to possibilities.
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #5,426
  • Dec 5, 2019 2:34pm Dec 5, 2019 2:34pm
DECEMBER 6th
id like to see back to 57.
  • #5,427
  • Dec 5, 2019 3:19pm Dec 5, 2019 3:19pm
doesn't look like 59 will be broken, may get a down day tomorrow or sideways chop
  • #5,428
  • Dec 5, 2019 3:31pm Dec 5, 2019 3:31pm
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yes yes yes
  • #5,429
  • Dec 5, 2019 8:20pm Dec 5, 2019 8:20pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Hi ET, In my opinion it's not just Nzd I believe if you were to take the time and study the price prior to news (even in some cases weeks before) you can see probable direction. I don't think you are into Technical Analysis and I will never seriously look at fundies but if we both come to the same conclusion some day it's got to be a big one? LOL I remember just before my trading started I was told to buy a share that was about to enter the FTSE100 because of it's results. I already had these shares and at the time I needed the money...
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #5,430
  • Dec 5, 2019 11:39pm Dec 5, 2019 11:39pm
Here's the chart.....
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  • #5,431
  • Dec 5, 2019 11:51pm Dec 5, 2019 11:51pm
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yes yes yes
  • #5,432
  • Dec 6, 2019 3:41am Dec 6, 2019 3:41am
06/12/19

Hope we have all been well

Here are my thoughts on Oil......Hope the Pic is self explanatory......
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #5,433
  • Dec 6, 2019 4:55am Dec 6, 2019 4:55am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,434
  • Dec 6, 2019 6:30am Dec 6, 2019 6:30am
Buyers seem to be lurking just below 58. Might get some ping pong action if it can’t break south of it
  • #5,435
  • Dec 6, 2019 9:34am Dec 6, 2019 9:34am
For your information
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.jpg Size: 232 KB
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #5,436
  • Dec 6, 2019 11:27am Dec 6, 2019 11:27am
OPEC+ AGREES TO CUT PRODUCTION BY FURTHER 500K BARRELS, WTI HITS MONTHLY HIGHS
6 December 2019, 18:10

 

  1. Crude oil hits fresh monthly highs but then trimmed gains after the OPEC+ meeting.
  2. OPEC+ decided to deepen cut by 500K b/d, for a total adjustment of 1.7 million b/d.

WTI futures jumped toward $59.090 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies's meeting ended. Crude reached the highest level in two months an then pulled back. As of writing, trades at $58.70 up 0.55% for the day.
OPEC cut, oil rises
At the press conference, following the meeting, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced oil producers agreed to extend production cuts by an additional 500K barrels per day (b/d) through to March of next year when the next meeting will take place.
The agreement is larger than what it was initially expected (400K b/d). Over the last few days, crude oil rose constantly on the back of speculations about a larger cut. WTI is trading above November highs and a consolidation could point to further gains over the next days, including a test of $60.00.
The outcomes of the meeting triggered only a modest rally but helped WTI held to weekly gains. The total cut in output will total 1.7 million b/d. Abdulaziz bin Salman explained Saudi Arabia will continue with its additional voluntary contribution leading the adjustment to 2.1 million barrels. Regarding the Saudi Aramco IPO, the Minister said he is convinced the company will be worth more than two trillion dollars in a few months.

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,437
  • Dec 6, 2019 12:13pm Dec 6, 2019 12:13pm
united states baker hughes us oil rig count down to 663 from previous 668
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,438
  • Dec 6, 2019 3:39pm Dec 6, 2019 3:39pm
Quoting Ll1979
OPEC+ AGREES TO CUT PRODUCTION BY FURTHER 500K BARRELS, WTI HITS MONTHLY HIGHS 6 December 2019, 18:10 Crude oil hits fresh monthly highs but then trimmed gains after the OPEC+ meeting. OPEC+ decided to deepen cut by 500K b/d, for a total adjustment of 1.7 million b/d. WTI futures jumped toward $59.090 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies's meeting ended. Crude reached the highest level in two months an then pulled back. As of writing, trades at $58.70 up 0.55% for the day. OPEC cut, oil rises At the press conference,...
Based in this information. should Oil continue higher?
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #5,439
  • Dec 6, 2019 6:27pm Dec 6, 2019 6:27pm
Quoting Ll1979
united states baker hughes us oil rig count down to 663 from previous 668
It seems like this should be pretty bullish for oil:

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Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #5,440
  • Dec 6, 2019 7:14pm Dec 6, 2019 7:14pm
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Based in this information. should Oil continue higher?
historically the catalyst for bigger movements for Oil has been:
1/ US dollar
2/ broader economic cycle
3/ Geopolitics
4/ Fundamentals of demand/supply

this move by OPEC+ in principle do affect fundamentals by sucking out "theoretically" 2.1% of world production which is sizeable "if executed with full compliance". this will have continued effect on weekly inventories released by US -- there needs to be a pattern of draws (something we saw in 2017 2H) to propel prices much higher -- right now inventories (except for this week) have been coming more bearish -- this can change.

US dollar wise -- i see euro not able to break 1.09 for few mnths now including a bull engulfing monthly bar in Oct. time will tell if this can "change" the trend since 2018

broader economic cycle wise, US stock mkts does seem to break out finally upwards after 1.5 yrs consolidation in a range -- trigger being US Fed easing. manufacturing numbers have started coming good even from EU. infact US manufacturing is underperforming EU/China as per data.

Geopolitics wise, Iran / middle east is always there.

so overall if US-China trade war does not worsen a lot further, the Fed induced liquidity and OPEC production cuts are quite bullish for Oil prices; especially if US$ starts to weaken on sustained basis and broader stock mkts goes up.
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