Will the Flash Crash happen again in 2020?

The year 2019 flew by faster than ever although still in session but we qare going to get 2 or maybe 3 weeks of trading and then it's the new year. That brings us to that time of the year when everybody-apparently-is flat out of the market. Thin volume usually signifies the period. That makes that period vulnerable to flash crashes as we saw last year, Jan1,2,3 and the subsequent business as usual mode.

I realize that lightening is supposed to not strike the same spot but obviously it does and especially in the FX market.

So, my question is: Are you going to make sure you are going to be totally flat during the upcoming holidays?

If you are someone that goes flat at the end of day, week, month,year, obviously you will be flat but I am wondering how the "always in the trade" folks are feeling about this.

Another option is light trading.

A gradual reduction in volume until barely anything left? Like shut engines 1 and 8 and coast for a while and then shut engines 4 and 5 and so on?




Also, do you guys think the crash was a set up executed at the right time for the beneficiaries? Were there beneficiaries? Did they succeed in getting what they wanted?

But the biggest question to be asked is: Will they do it again...at the right time?

If you're worried about it, just use little to no leverage during early 2019. In the unlikely event of another one, you will only lose 10% of your account instead of 10 times your account.

yeah

Someone was buying when everyone was getting stopped out hard, and price moved several % higher in the following months, so I'm sure some people had some extremely large pay days thanks to that event.

If you were a market manipulating scumbag, would YOU engineer another flashcrash straight after new years in the exact same fashion as early Jan 2019? I'd assume most people would realize that it would be a bad idea to do so. From memory, all the headlines basically blamed it on stupid things like big algo faults and Apple revenue. If they were to do this again, it would be so blindingly obvious and undeniable as to what is actually happening, that there would be an investigation of some kind that could threaten the manipulators lucrative gig.

I'm not saying it can't happen again, but it's in their best interests to make it seem like the market is much more organic than it is.

It's so inconvenient to plan for this. It may or may not happen.

If it happens, there is not going to be an investigation. If someone or some entity wants to dump a large number of units onto the market on a thinly traded day, I don't think it is illegal to do. They'd do it just because no one is going to expect it to happen again.

Another thing is that if the retail traders are flat and the institutional players are flat, then who is holding the fort? Whoever it is, aren't the ones that are the counter party to the dump?

In terms of trading such events are inconsequential to me. I always have a stop and a target. Sometimes these events work in my favor sometimes they don't.

In terms of investing I buy them for the long term. Has done extremely well for me. Better than my trading for sure LOL.

Great candidate for a flash crash should be NZDUSD and EURNZD. Too many sellers are caught on the wrong side that keep price pushing higher (NZDUSD) and too many buyer (EURNZD). At this level and time of the year there will be no hope of a foolish buyer or collectively dumb retail buyers that will put a big, million dollar, buy order for NZDUSD for the MM to turn the boat down. Vice versa for EURNZD.

In retail forex more seller than buyer will push the price up and more buyer than seller will send the price down.

Everything is possible in the forex market, so stop loss is a must

So far, so good but Thursday and Friday are going to be the most dangerous times for a flash crash. The circumstances are going to be different than last year but still thin markets and the potential exists.

I've minimal trades open and I've got a 50% equity loss ea on my accounts.

If you are completely flat, then yay for u.

I think we should stay out of the market til the end of this week, and Monday opening.
USD went down and maybe will be right back up for 100 pips after Monday, we dont know and we should stay out til next Monday.
Happy new year and Safe trade guys