Things Usually True About 4x Trading But Rarely Talked About

This thread is designed for traders to share their observations of high percentage truths about forex trading that are RARELY talked about (NOT never talked about). Maybe you heard something once or saw a comment somewhere and found in your trading that it was usually true.

If you have been trading for any length of time, you have discovered many things for yourself.

Here is your chance to share your observations.

My thought is for something that will help other traders in their trading -- kind of like little tips and tricks.

I'm not talking about a trading system -- maybe something small for a scalp or to keep you out of a bad trade.

These high percentage "truths" can be technical, fundamental, or other.

Nothing us usually 100%. I am looking for things true at least 75% of the time.

If you can share a chart or a link or some other visual that would be great!

I will start by talking about the 200 SMA -- the most important SMA in my opinion.

This is not my trading system. I use it successfully for a good scalp here and there.

Observation: On the 1H, 4H, daily, and weekly 200 SMA, when the 200 SMA is moving in the OPPOSITE direction of price and price crosses it, when price crosses it for the FIRST time, price will "always" come back to touch it within a "short" time.

If price just touches the 200 SMA with a candle, and then crosses it on the next candle, it probably will not come back and touch -- it is only the FIRST touch that counts.

If the 200 SMA is moving in the same direction as the price and the price crosses, it may or may not come back and touch.

In this example on the EURUSD daily, the 200 SMA is going down and price is going up. Price comes back to touch it on the second day.


Here on the EURUSD 4H, the 200 SMA is going down and price crosses up. Price comes back quickly to touch the 200 SMA.


Here on the CADJPY 4H, the 200 SMA is going up and price comes down to cross it. This time it takes about three days for price to come back and touch.


Much of the time there is a "clean" opposite cross. Here on the EURUSD 1H, you can see price comes back to the 200 SMA to end the hour and then the new hour starts with price continuing in the same direction.


Here on the gold 1H there are three opposite crosses. The first one the 200 SMA is going down and price is going up -- It comes back to touch on the next candle. On the second and third opposite crosses with the 200 SMA going up and price going down, price comes back to touch almost immediately.


Here on the gold daily, you can see the price touches the 200 SMA but does not cross till the next day. It is only the first touch that counts. So price does not come back to touch after crossing.


Don't under-estimate the 200 SMA!

Fair enough but those are observations after the fact.
What will you do on the last candle when it is forming around the 200 ma? Do you sell or buy or freeze pending more decisive info?

I know you do say "when the 200 SMA is moving in the OPPOSITE direction of price and price crosses it, when price crosses it for the FIRST time, price will "always" come back to touch it within a "short" time." but if it is all the time, then one can just take that trade every time but things like you mention that happen around 2oo SMA, happen around 220 SMA or 150 etc etc. Pulling the trigger is the problem.

Everyone knows the buy low, sell high mantra.
I actually placed lines on charts for all pairs and marked what I really thought was the high hard to imagine level being crossed any time soon and then marked what I really thought was the low hard to imagine level being crossed any time soon as well. I went to work and 10 hours later, a lot of the pairs had crossed and surpassed my levels with a large margin. Some of my lines looked like they were drawn at the mid sections of the trend and the other lines were so far from the action that they looked like historical levels. IMHO, 200 SMA could be just another of those lines at the pleasure of the price movement. Not trying to be discouraging or anything but just an observation.

Anyways, the buy low, sell high thing, as simple as it is, it is hard to master but worth drawing those lines and see for yourself how good you are at telling hi/lo before it happens.

While on the subject, if anyone has an indy that keeps the line drawn at the same place even if TF changed, please post it. Thx.

Forum mantra - Stay away from hindsight traders who post hindsight charts.

I wait for price to come back and touch and then enter in the direction of the strong move, using the 200 as the stop. On a "clean" cross, I enter in the direction of the move when the new candle opens and use the 200 as the stop. Great risk to reward!

I often don't understand traders who don't realize that their systems can't work.
and why they don't move on.
weird situation

The indicator attached 'ma-channels. creates a deviated channel around your candles.

The middle white thick line is the 200ma. The indicator doesn't come with that, so you have to pull in your own 200 ma on the chart.

I set the indy's period at 200 for this image. That means the line above and below the main 200ma are each 200 pips away. After that the scale graduates until the last red bands.

I figured maybe this tool can put the 200ma thing in a better perspective. You can see how many 200's it traveled straight through, up or down or how close the bars came and didn't cross for an extended period.

The pairs and TF for the screenshot means nothing. You can put it on any chart or TF and scale/adjust your chart to see what you want to see. Also, obviously this can help see how 1 100ma or 300ma or any other distances are traveled. Then you can decide what to do based on your observations.

The only issue is that as a last step, I opened the file in the editor to see if it was legit but it looks f'd up.
I have 1000's of indys and I have no idea where I got this from but in general, somewhere on the net.
If anyone knows this is decompiled, let me know and I will delete them.

Or you could use multiple instances of this indicator to get the same thing+gives you more control: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/11523