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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #5,261
  • Nov 27, 2019 10:47pm Nov 27, 2019 10:47pm
Quoting EventsTrader
We knew 2019 was going to see some declines and it's been steady. {image}
Yet, WTI prices has been steadily increasing throughout the year.

Here's my best shot at a quick linear regression line of this year's prices. Rig count has steadily declined, while prices have steadily been climbing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-0070 11-27-2019 11.45.00 PM.png Size: 20 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #5,262
  • Nov 27, 2019 11:16pm Nov 27, 2019 11:16pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Yet, WTI prices has been steadily increasing throughout the year. Here's my best shot at a quick linear regression line of this year's prices. Rig count has steadily declined, while prices have steadily been climbing. {image}
Technicals are also sharing similar sentiment with the current structure pointing at further upside, just looking at how its been picking away at one level at a time im thinking its only a matter of time when the overhead resistance will be broken, current retest of the structural support and the fact that the previous inverted HnS pattern still has a projeceted target of 61.2 give or take, so imho looking to use pullbacks to position myself long on the longer term and trade the intra day setups with caution.......
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  • #5,263
  • Nov 28, 2019 12:57am Nov 28, 2019 12:57am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Baker Hughes is a very underrated indicator as prices can lag the indicator by as much as two months. There still a ways to go. We should see the immediate impact of this weekly indicator gain more significance in early 2020 when the oil producers give some kind of guidance about their exploration budgets. We knew 2019 was going to see some declines and it's been steady. {image}
I often correlate the Baker Hughes info in conjunction with US oil production numbers. The US oil production is still rising compared to the rig count (which declined over 200 rigs since 2019) and US production is at all-time high (12,9 M barrels a days) a rise of 1,2 M barrels a days since the beginning of 2019.

If you do the math a nice shorting opportunity will arise

source:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #5,264
  • Nov 28, 2019 1:19am Nov 28, 2019 1:19am
Quoting sponge
{quote} You could be right but volume looks neg all round atm We could still see support at 57.56 though Indi's signaling more downside 57.56 to kick it off and sub 57.30 to confirm That's how I see it for now
Think we'll see more downside however sideways to down looks more likely rather than a big drop in my opinion, yesterdays pivot around 58 could change the view

Key levels 57.56/78
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,265
  • Nov 28, 2019 1:23am Nov 28, 2019 1:23am
Quoting Lekkim
Today 3498931 {image}
Lekkim, your link is not working, "not found"
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,266
  • Nov 28, 2019 2:12am Nov 28, 2019 2:12am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Lekkim, your link is not working, "not found"
There was no attachment besides the oil graph, I believe it to be a typo in the thread post.
  • #5,267
  • Nov 28, 2019 2:19am Nov 28, 2019 2:19am
Quoting Lekkim
Today 3498931 {image}
Price caught up(down) to volume and yesterdays indifference closed
Attached Image
  • #5,268
  • Nov 28, 2019 3:53am Nov 28, 2019 3:53am
Trump at it again

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50584928
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,269
  • Nov 28, 2019 5:54am Nov 28, 2019 5:54am
Oil vs top 15 global market cap energy stocks (primarily oil-focused) this week
Strong correlation and can work as 'bands' hence if oil(black) go out of stock oil band is unusual and can trigger entry options
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  • #5,270
  • Nov 28, 2019 6:04am Nov 28, 2019 6:04am
If oil still remains higher than all oil stocks when US market open,
this corre will look bearish, since already opened oil stocks are below
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  • #5,271
  • Nov 28, 2019 6:04am Nov 28, 2019 6:04am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #5,272
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:04am Nov 28, 2019 7:04am
Quoting Lekkim
If oil still remains higher than all oil stocks when US market open, this corre will look bearish, since already opened oil stocks are below {image}
Looks like a good approach

I tried something similar with Dow 30 stocks but it didn't really give me the edge

I also tried using volitility breakouts which seem to work very well until I entered the maket with real money then I got humped and scampered back to the drawing board lol
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,273
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:08am Nov 28, 2019 7:08am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Looks like a good approach I tried something similar with Dow 30 stocks but it didn't really give me the edge I also tried using volitility breakouts which seem to work very well until I entered the maket with real money then I got humped and scampered back to the drawing board lol
Yes I agree, stock indices as correlator to oil is somewhat indecisive that's why oil-related stocks to compare with is preferable.

The graph above is made in investing .com's free service and doesn't take long to set up. The only disadvantage with their site is data feed not as precise and also updates each 5min and their software is not as good as many alternatives IMO.

What could be added more^; NATGAS, CAD, I also like having Brent Oil on chart aswell even tho it's not as liquid/more expensive to trade than Crude
  • #5,274
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:14am Nov 28, 2019 7:14am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Looks like a good approach I tried something similar with Dow 30 stocks but it didn't really give me the edge I also tried using volitility breakouts which seem to work very well until I entered the maket with real money then I got humped and scampered back to the drawing board lol
In what way did you test oil volatility breakouts?
  • #5,275
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:15am Nov 28, 2019 7:15am
Quoting sponge
Time line predicts 9pm this evening UK for a turn Love the spooky stuff {image}
How about this then is it spooky or what
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,276
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:24am Nov 28, 2019 7:24am
Quoting Lekkim
{quote} In what way did you test oil volatility breakouts?
I was using a prog called Omnitrader which was able to scan the markets for vol breakouts very quickly, not oil stocks tho, I was trading indices at that time.

I dare say you could fine a vol scanner on line these days.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,277
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:32am Nov 28, 2019 7:32am
Quoting sponge
{quote} I was using a prog called Omnitrader which was able to scan the markets for vol breakouts very quickly, not oil stocks tho, I was trading indices at that time. I dare say you could fine a vol scanner on line these days.
Ok but I understand why you found it interesting.. I've done some vola tests as well during the days.. But hard to 'event' trade vola like this, cuz it can happen so fast and with awful spreads during.

In regard to volume is a single stock/company, it's too insufficient. I've also trade indices with leverage if I trade stocks.
For me, the best I can recommend is using price/vol method on larger indices.. The tug of war works same way for all bigger markets, including sharesCFD'er and futures, etc.
  • #5,278
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:35am Nov 28, 2019 7:35am
Quoting sponge
{quote} I dare say you could fine a vol scanner on line these days.
It's risky for you to dare me like that, sponge
I've might come through for you, since I'm not normal in any way
  • #5,279
  • Nov 28, 2019 7:45am Nov 28, 2019 7:45am
Quoting Lekkim
{quote} Ok but I understand why you found it interesting.. I've done some vola tests as well during the days.. But hard to 'event' trade vola like this, cuz it can happen so fast and with awful spreads during. In regard to volume is a single stock/company, it's too insufficient. I've also trade indices with leverage if I trade stocks. For me, the best I can recommend is using price/vol method on larger indices.. The tug of war works same way for all bigger markets, including sharesCFD'er and futures, etc.
There are many methods, some people just count the number of stocks say in the Dow which are under indicator levels like RSI 70/30.

Problem is trying to count the S&P 500 ha ...you really need a scanner

With the huge upside trend on the US indices I found my volume approach failing a wee bit, did you find it any change ?
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #5,280
  • Nov 28, 2019 8:10am Nov 28, 2019 8:10am
Quoting sponge
{quote} There are many methods, some people just count the number of stocks say in the Dow which are under indicator levels like RSI 70/30. Problem is trying to count the S&P 500 ha ...you really need a scanner With the huge upside trend on the US indices I found my volume approach failing a wee bit, did you find it any change ?
Ye, only imagination sets boundaries for what can be tested, hehe

As such I can recommend Finviz .com - easy to compare US stocks with technical parameters there.
I've never found an edge in technical indicators though. My view of the stock market is a bit different. Mainly because the basics of the market are different (not same zero-sum thing as FX)

The stock market has no upper limit since it's in no matrix with another tradeable item. Stock market holders are every party of our society and bearish speculation in this long term is risky... I would rather position myself in other bearish market elements if I believed a crisis to be incoming.

Just also look at how stock been on the upside this year even with bonds rising - paint a picture of an overall cautious economy in this low rate environment. Rising bonds are a bearish indication, only stockmarket 'enjoys' low yield rates cuz it pushes more capital into stockmarket because hey, nobody wants 0% at the bank.

The term 'Long or wrong' I found fitting for the stock market. 90% of the population wouldn't notice crashes in other more 'niche' markets (commodities and fx) So by looking at the stock market everything seems to be all-time high which we all know is not a realistic view of the worldwide economy.
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