NZD rate decision

The odds, according to interest-rates swaps are 50/50 tonight on a 25bps rate hike. Greater than i had anticipated given the CPI figs yesterday, although y/y inflation is greater than 3%. I think they will hold rates, but the accompanying statement will be interesting, to see if any evidence emerges that inflation risks remain, pointing to maybe a november/december hike.

NZD/USD rose about 100pips last month with in an hour, on the basis of the hawkish statement.


Any thoughts?

If the market sees it the same way we are bound to have a fair move just don't get caught on the wrong side of midnight.

Where is the 1st place online that the interest rate is posted?

Would this be it: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0090630.html ?

Anyone have any charts for the NZD Rate Interest Statement would be appreciated

The NZD/USD has already risen about 30 pips since the US interest rate desision. Would the be a possible pre-curser to what maybe on the horizon?

Hey burger do u have charts for the NZD interest rate statement like the US ones? it would be most helpful to see what it likes to do? if its like Fomc or not

lots of positioning going on pre-release!

right here

http://www.forexfactory.com/release....te%20Statement

Thats for sure, pretty crazy, almost looks like the gbp if u look at a 1 minute light

whoa

here is the statement...

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain unchanged at 7.25 percent.

Since our September Monetary Policy Statement, there has been a significant improvement to the near-term inflation outlook, mainly as a result of the recent decline in oil prices. We expect lower fuel prices, together with the recent rebound in the exchange rate and Statistics New Zealand's reweighting of the CPI, to give an unusually low December quarter CPI increase. These are temporary factors, however, and, apart from the likely favourable impact on inflation expectations, they are not expected to impact materially on medium-term inflation.

Indicators of medium-term inflation pressures remain significant. Overall GDP growth in the second quarter was consistent with our September projections and the continued rebalancing of demand away from domestic spending towards exports. Continued strength in most of New Zealand's international markets and a return to a downward trending NZ dollar exchange rate should support this rebalancing. On the domestic side, however, the housing market remains resilient, supported by net inward migration and ongoing mortgage credit expansion at low interest margins. Further, we could see a pickup in household consumption in the third quarter as a result of the drop in petrol prices. On balance, inflation pressures appear to be abating gradually. But some indicators of resource pressures, such as high capacity utilisation and a tight labour market, continue to signal caution.

Taking all of this into account, monetary policy pressure will need to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back sustainably within the 1-3 percent target band. In this regard, the policy outlook is little changed from our September statement. The balance of inflation risks remains skewed to the upside. Further monetary policy tightening cannot be ruled out, and any easing of policy remains a considerable way off.

I made a nice 20pips on a straddle. I got slipped 9 pips on entry though.
Never lost of an nzd report yet.

man this statement reads incredibly hawkish to me. if i see the nzd show some balls, im gunna be on the fade trade train.

bah just made 10 lousy pips but better than neg 10 i guess

broker #1 NO SLIPPAGE +25 pips 1 lot

broker #2 3 pips slippage +20 pips 2 lots and +4 locked in with a trail 1 lot

Very Nice, and really should have been a nice moneymaker for everyone.

Hope it was for you!

DC

Bah wasnt that nice it slammed 50 pips down in like 30 seconds and hasnt done much after that, but i did get my 10 afterwards

Seems like the bottom is forming could we be going back up?

Guess i shoulda stayed in for another 10 woulda got it...... lights still look good

Managed to get 14 pips on this one.

Trade management is everything. It is a completely different issue than trade entry.

Just learn from each trade and you will be fine.


DC