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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #60,321
  • Nov 13, 2019 9:35am Nov 13, 2019 9:35am
from
- Confusion de confusiones. Penso de la Vega, Josef
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  • #60,322
  • Nov 14, 2019 12:51pm Nov 14, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Ahhh yes thank you. But is not privicy problem. The rich bastards levelrage on everyone's kindness share videos on their server. But now they begin bully users. For 1 month already everytime i log in my youtube account they ask me prove i am not a robot. In fact they are the fuking robot. This time wgen i tried watch a link i posted here They ask me prove i am not robot. Then they cimplaun i watching thru unauthorised app, which in this case is ff. And they throw in all sorts bullshit act as if the gods. Fuk them. I can live without youtube....
the concept seems to be good chief, though i dont have the energies to try now. https://joinpeertube.org/en/
  • #60,323
  • Nov 15, 2019 5:19am Nov 15, 2019 5:19am
In my opinion, the most important mistake in technical analysis is that the same indicators analyze completely dissimilar markets: the stock market and the bond market, the foreign exchange market and the commodity market. In some cases, this approach justifies itself: a “double bottom”. But in many cases, no.
  • #60,324
  • Nov 15, 2019 7:10am Nov 15, 2019 7:10am
Quoting M4Rs
In my opinion, the most important mistake in technical analysis is that the same indicators analyze completely dissimilar markets: the stock market and the bond market, the foreign exchange market and the commodity market. In some cases, this approach justifies itself: a “double bottom”. But in many cases, no.
All Indicators are legging, We don't use them here. Just Price charge, no line, no indicator, no nothing. Just Price Action. Pls Read this thread.
  • #60,325
  • Nov 15, 2019 8:34am Nov 15, 2019 8:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} Hahahaha grasshopper.. Nothing to disect. If your men came told you lost all profits and this. Tell me what would be your respondse? Already told you, you cannot trade your bias until she shows you her....... You was not blind. You had sturborn bias. And you thought yiu had learn become invincible. Try learn again from basics. Will be harder to learn now. You already have bias, if you develop fear of bias then you scorpion will be bigger. Becareful not to stroke it. Throw away this demo. Srart again another demo 50%less capital. I...
FTI,

I am on 50% less Demo cap, 50k $.
secondly, i am now trading from Laptop. I was using mobile before. Now i have much clearer picture with Laptop. can see clearly.
3rdly I am watching 5 mins from last 5 hours continuously , and was in trade. Now i have some understanding what you mean by able to feel and not able to feel market.

Regards,
Grasshopper
  • #60,326
  • Nov 15, 2019 10:42am Nov 15, 2019 10:42am
Quoting M4Rs
In my opinion, the most important mistake in technical analysis is that the same indicators analyze completely dissimilar markets: the stock market and the bond market, the foreign exchange market and the commodity market. In some cases, this approach justifies itself: a “double bottom”. But in many cases, no.
Not to pick on you, but let's think about that statement for just a minute. Indicators to not analyze markets. The trader analyzes the market. You are responsible for selecting the TA tools that help you analyze "the market". In reality, "the market" can be replaced with "human behavior". Too many people on FF talk about how indicators and TA don't work, when in fact they are not suppose to "work". They are there to help you "work". An indicator or another form of TA only "works" after the information passes through your brain, which ultimately leads to you taking some action (i.e., buy, sell or my favorite, do nothing) that results in success or failure. Be careful what goes on inside, and comes out, of your brain. Rigidity hurts you when you are in a trade, so be careful about leaning on indicator and TA when you are in the trade. Of course you need TA of market structure, etc. But once the trade is on, you must move with the market and not fight the market. If you haven't read the first 200 to 400 pages of this thread, please do so. Good trading and welcome to the best thread on FF.
  • #60,327
  • Nov 15, 2019 2:44pm Nov 15, 2019 2:44pm
Apart from the obvious problem of relying on historical statistics to tell you what to do in future trades, I think a big problem with indicators is that they abstract you from the price action (if that makes sense). So, if you've been having good luck with oscillators or moving averages and your luck runs out, you won't have the imtimate knowledge of price action that is required to figure out what's happened because you weren't paying as much attention as you would have been if you were trading without indicators. Or, to put it another way, you were never in tune with the market in the first place so you might be slower to react when it enters a different phase/pattern of behaviour. I've noticed I can be slow to react to changes, even though I don't use any indicators. I get there eventually but sometimes only just in time to watch everything change again.
  • #60,328
  • Nov 16, 2019 8:46am Nov 16, 2019 8:46am
i burst out laughing.. on a ballad love song tune .

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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #60,329
  • Nov 19, 2019 9:12am Nov 19, 2019 9:12am
It has taken me so many years to finally understand the Preservation of Capital rule. For me, the trades I don't take are more important than the trades I do take.

Or, to put it another way, my profitability improved dramatically when I focused on not taking bad positions rather than looking for more good positions.
  • #60,330
  • Nov 19, 2019 9:31am Nov 19, 2019 9:31am
Quoting ukmanthailan
It has taken me so many years to finally understand the Preservation of Capital rule. For me, the trades I don't take are more important than the trades I do take. Or, to put it another way, my profitability improved dramatically when I focused on not taking bad positions rather than looking for more good positions.
100% agree with this. My favorite trades of the day are the ones I don't take.
  • #60,331
  • Nov 19, 2019 9:56am Nov 19, 2019 9:56am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} 100% agree with this. My favorite trades of the day are the ones I don't take.
Absolutely. Watching a half chance go badly wrong from the sidelines is very relaxing.

And getting to the point where you don't care if the market takes off 30-50 pips in the direction you thought it might (when you haven't taken a position) is also very liberating. You don't have to be on every single move the market makes....throwing out 10 trades that just don't look appealing and losing 4 potential winners out of those 10 is fine by me. It also means I saved myself a lot of hassle.
  • #60,332
  • Nov 19, 2019 10:42pm Nov 19, 2019 10:42pm
Guys,

Where is FTI. Any news of him. I wish he is doing great.
  • #60,333
  • Nov 20, 2019 7:22am Nov 20, 2019 7:22am
Quoting ukmanthailan
It has taken me so many years to finally understand the Preservation of Capital rule. For me, the trades I don't take are more important than the trades I do take. Or, to put it another way, my profitability improved dramatically when I focused on not taking bad positions rather than looking for more good positions.
hi,

disagree. preservation of capital = not taking death match to the point of destruction of core trading capital / knowing when to end a losing fight within foreign cap scope.

not trading = incurring opportunity cost. as a full time trader, the cost will be big as that time spent watching market and doing nothing is not generating income. it is equivalent to a sales manager sitting at his desk watching the people passing him by (due to fear of loss or waste of time) instead of approaching them to pitch / sell his product.


as a part time trader, opportunity cost is not so important because you are utilizing leisure time which is not focused on income generation to begin with.

what you are describing is a learning curve issue.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #60,334
  • Nov 20, 2019 2:09pm Nov 20, 2019 2:09pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi, disagree. preservation of capital = not taking death match to the point of destruction of core trading capital / knowing when to end a losing fight within foreign cap scope. not trading = incurring opportunity cost. as a full time trader, the cost will be big as that time spent watching market and doing nothing is not generating income. it is equivalent to a sales manager sitting at his desk watching the people passing him by (due to fear of loss or waste of time) instead of approaching them to pitch / sell his product. as a part time...
I respectfully disagree with you. The market is constantly moving but I'm not a market maker so there is no requirement for me to have an open position at all times (apart from the fact my balance is of course an open position whether I like it or not). If you think you have to be trading every move the market makes, I'd suggest that's a learning curve issue of yours.

I'm happy with my performance. I tried the always-in approach and it didn't suit me. I lost more opportunities through wasting time battling back from losing positions than I do by biding my time. I'm not a part-time trader but I don't always have a position in the market.
  • #60,335
  • Nov 20, 2019 6:26pm Nov 20, 2019 6:26pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I respectfully disagree with you. The market is constantly moving but I'm not a market maker so there is no requirement for me to have an open position at all times (apart from the fact my balance is of course an open position whether I like it or not). If you think you have to be trading every move the market makes, I'd suggest that's a learning curve issue of yours. I'm happy with my performance. I tried the always-in approach and it didn't suit me. I lost more opportunities through wasting time battling back from losing positions than...
hi, Tks. This is an important discussion. You are at liberty to decide how you want to trade and manage your opportunity cost. it is then important to make a distinction between the professional MO presented on this thread vs what you are doing .

My disagreement is with ur understanding of capital preservation as presented here. The starting point of the idea is to know when to end a losing fight . Of cuz if one decide not to trade , it is also preservation of capital.

if one decide to be professional , then closest benchmark is the Professional prop trader. It is free for him to decide his trades. But if other traders are making money off the trades he his not taking + the trades his is taking. and if this happens often enough, then the question becomes that of learning curve. In most cases , the capital of that trader will be redistributed to others who can manage it better.

It is then difficult to use reason of capital preservation to excuse himself to head trader.

in summary , one is at liberty to make decisions how to trade. But let’s be a cautious when it comes to claiming compliance with professional MO presented on thread
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #60,336
  • Edited 11:52pm Nov 20, 2019 10:31pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi, Tks. This is an important discussion. You are at liberty to decide how you want to trade and manage your opportunity cost. it is then important to make a distinction between the professional MO presented on this thread vs what you are doing . My disagreement is with ur understanding of capital preservation as presented here. The starting point of the idea is to know when to end a losing fight . Of cuz if one decide not to trade , it is also preservation of capital. if one decide to be professional , then closest benchmark is the Professional...
I didn't make any such claims. But I still believe you are wrong when you talk about opportunity cost. There are many times when I am trading that the charts show no strong indication of the price going one way more than the other and to take a position at such times would be nothing more than a gamble in my opinion. You could, of course, say that it is my lack of technical skills that prevents me from being able to determine a likely direction on those occasions but I would contend this is true of all market participants. My personal experience is that although I can bring most positions back home safely eventually, needlessly involving myself in protracted battles costs me far more in lost profitable trading opportunities than waiting on the sidelines does. Does this mean I have departed from the MO outlined in this thread? Quite possibly yes. I have retained the parts that I can use profitably, taking my character and skill set into account, but chosen to only enter positions when I believe I have a better than average chance of making a profit on those positions. This doesn't mean that I think I will always be right or that I never have to mount a rescue, just that I am not 'always in'. Does it mean that I am unprofessional? I don't believe so but you are free to form your own opinion on that score of course. At the end of the day, if I am making money rather than losing it, I'm not going to concern myself about how other people view my approach.

Having said all that, I'm more than happy to stop posting on this thread if other participants feel that it is no longer appropriate for me to do so. I am primarily focused on ensuring that my trading activities are profitable and whilst it it nice to have somewhere to interact with other traders, if those interactions affect my mindset or theirs in a negative way, then it would be prudent for me to cease those interactions. I will always be grateful to fti for showing us the way - these comments are directed towards other traders who are still on the path really. I hope he is well too - I hadn't noticed that it had been 12-13 days since he'd been online until ant pointed it out.

Cheers

EDIT: I may be wrong here but I would like to add something: Fti has stated on various occasions that he did not set out to make carbon copies of himself, that your trading style had to match your personality, and that there is no holy grail to trading. Despite that, there seems to be an evangelical attitude among many posters on this thread, posters who attack and insult anybody who doesn't adhere to every detail of fti's MO. Coincidentally, none of these posters are trading full time.

(If my departures from the basic MO are viewed as being corrupt and inappropriate by fti himself, I will of course disappear, out of respect for him)
  • #60,337
  • Nov 20, 2019 11:49pm Nov 20, 2019 11:49pm
Both of you are correct.

Found a posting by FTI..

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...83#post6971483

--
You chosed trading as lifestyle.
No one can dictate what a trader must or can do stay profitable and healthy.
Only the trader himself.
Please no apologise for being human.
Keep what works for you. Adjust self if diminishing returns sets in on your activities.
If one can, contribute to the educating of others who comes after us.
--
  • #60,338
  • Nov 20, 2019 11:53pm Nov 20, 2019 11:53pm
Quoting antmindset
Both of you are correct. Found a posting by FTI.. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...83#post6971483 -- You chosed trading as lifestyle. No one can dictate what a trader must or can do stay profitable and healthy. Only the trader himself. Please no apologise for being human. Keep what works for you. Adjust self if diminishing returns sets in on your activities. If one can, contribute to the educating of others who comes after us. --
Both of us might be correct but only one of us is trying to tell the other what to do and insinuating that he is unprofessional.

EDIT: I don't think I am adding anything of value to the thread at this point (if I ever did!) and I'm certainly not enjoying these interactions. More importantly, I don't wish to become embroiled in arguments over MOs and make a mess of the thread because I feel this would be disrespectful. For these reasons, I'll leave you all to it. I sincerely hope fti is well and I thank him for all he has given over the years. I first posted in this thread nearly 11 years ago but things have changed a lot since then.
  • #60,339
  • Edited 7:28am Nov 21, 2019 7:14am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Both of us might be correct but only one of us is trying to tell the other what to do and insinuating that he is unprofessional. EDIT: I don't think I am adding anything of value to the thread at this point (if I ever did!) and I'm certainly not enjoying these interactions. More importantly, I don't wish to become embroiled in arguments over MOs and make a mess of the thread because I feel this would be disrespectful. For these reasons, I'll leave you all to it. I sincerely hope fti is well and I thank him for all he has given over the years....
why do you take it the negative way? you stated this yourself "It has taken me so many years to finally understand the Preservation of Capital rule."

likewise, i stated clearly i have no qualms over your choice of trading style. my intention then is only to clarify your understanding of "Preservation of capital rule" as presented on this thread. The MO on this thread is stated as the "professional mo" or what most others in the industry practice. There is no need to take it negatively the meaning pro or non pro. it is a choice.
all reader choose to take whatever works from here and build own trading style. if it works, that is great.



below i post for your benefits, you may find useful to understand on "Preservation of capital". dont overleverage, dont fight a loseing battle. be ready to cut loss and BE within foregin cap scope. This is the core concept of the MO.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...36#post5977336

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...04#post1848004

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...91#post9093991

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...74#post1902474

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...02#post2097402

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...21#post1942721

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...64#post6515564

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...68#post6396068


this you may find uusefull to understand opportunity cost as a professional trader:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...40#post1824240

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...52#post3550052

to become professional, it is a dedicated training and job. coming onto this thread, the main purpose is to learn "pro Mo", it is productive to keep open mind to discuss on what is the "pro MO", otherwise then what is the purpose ? if noone discuss their understanding, then no one understands?

i stated multiple times it is your choice how you want to trade. my intention is to clarify your understanding of the MO presented on this thread. i have no intention to tell you how to trade unless you were asking.

distinguish between doing and learning.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #60,340
  • Edited 12:54pm Nov 21, 2019 8:29am | Edited 12:54pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Both of us might be correct but only one of us is trying to tell the other what to do and insinuating that he is unprofessional. EDIT: I don't think I am adding anything of value to the thread at this point (if I ever did!) and I'm certainly not enjoying these interactions. More importantly, I don't wish to become embroiled in arguments over MOs and make a mess of the thread because I feel this would be disrespectful. For these reasons, I'll leave you all to it. I sincerely hope fti is well and I thank him for all he has given over the years....
I would miss your posts, so I hope you reconsider leaving this thread.

If you are making money, then you are doing well. This notion of being or emulating a pro trader is dangerous, and puts a potential trader on a path to failure, since learning to trade is a journey of self discovery, not imitation. I credit fti for my success as a trader not because I imitate his approach, but because his knowledge and his presence here gave me what I was missing to trade successfully. It's a complete waste of time to argue about who is or is not in compliance with 100% of fit's teachings. I'd hope that, by now, some of us could talk about how we trade, acknowledging what is or is not in compliance with fti, what we do to mitigate the risks of non-compliance, listen to fit's comments that might take us to the next level, and support fti in what he's built in this thread. I feel an obligation to pay him back in some way, and I believe you do, too.

As to the subject at hand, IMHO, and as I interpret what fti teaches, if you are not ready for battlestations, for what ever reason, you should stand down. But if you are trading, trade. I trade in my den, for myself. I haven't put on a trade for 2 days, and I don't feel like I've violated anything fti has taught me. Had I felt forced to trade, I'd be really pissed off now, since I saw no reason to go to battlestations. I value mindset. A lot. I'll have no mindset issues the next time I trade.

Don't go along with the misconception of opportunity costs. Opportunity costs are the costs of opportunities forgone, which i think we both agree, include reading a book, going to breakfast, etc. When you arent ready to trade, dont forego the opportunity to do something else.

Hope you decide to hang around.
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