Trump: If we don't make a deal with China we will substantially raise tariffs | Forex Factory

  • Trump: If we don't make a deal with China we will substantially raise tariffs

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ekan
Nov 12, 2019 2:17pm — Edited
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Quoting GillyFX
Open threats directly to the Chinese is the last he should do, and will NOT work !! He is not only missing western behaviour and business codes, but have no clue of Chinese culture and business behaviour.
And why, pray, should the President of USA need concern himself with Chinese culture and business behaviour? This isn't some business meeting of a desperate little Western firm trying to clinch that precious deal with a big Shenzhen...or even better....Zhengzhou....behemoth SOE, so their CEO needs to smile while drinking stinking baijiu.

Quite the opposite, an overly deferral and fawning attitude to the Chinese will be counter productive. The side that supplies the cultural coordinate system is the one that holds the power, and that is exactly the position the President of USA should be occupying.

The last thing USA needs is another Obama Hangzhou red carpet "incident" happening.

Quoting GillyFX
They will not accept the threatening and rather buy bananas, oranges, and meat from Africa, Latin America and Australia, than bend over on this stupid threat.
Actually we have a real nice case to test that theory going on right now, the African swine disease that has decimated their staple protein source, the pig. A giant demand from PRC may lead to rapid escalation of food prices in the exporter countries (as it is already happening with pork), and the electorate isn't going to like it. Very soon politicians who will promise controls on food exports to PRC will get themselves elected.

Australians are already getting fed up with baby formula disappearing from the supermarket shelves in no time, as Hong Kong-ers did very long time ago. So they put a two-can limit. Still a problem: https://au.news.yahoo.com/baby-formu...032543894.html

PRC has less arable land than USA at ~4 times the population. Not really something in PRC's favour.

"They will not accept threatening" is a very poor arguments. Who would willingly accept being threatened? Of course they won't. Why do you think Taiwan still flies the Republic of China flag? Because CCP Politburo is stuffed with such nice people, real angels? Or the threat of USA aircraft carriers?

Quoting GillyFX
Their export has a wide room to other partners, and even if it should not fully compensate for it, they can be without the export portion to US, in worst case.
Even so, no other trading partner has the purchasing power USA commands. EU is the second largest economy after USA in absolute terms and after PRC on PPP basis, and 3rd on per capita basis (after Japan). EU has much much smaller trade balance with PRC. The reason for this goes beyond difference in purchasing power.

EU's main economy, Germany, is a mercantilist, export-oriented economy - just like PRC. So far they have not gone head to head because Germany exports in different segments, including a lot to PRC itself. This may very quickly change - in fact today there was just a "news" article on FF saying how PRC slowdown is a big headache for Germany. The second reason is EU already has a China of sorts - it is called Turkey. Whichever way you look at it, EU will never accept such a volume of PRC produce as USA does.

This actually raises another interesting point. International trade and balance thereof are still talked in terms left from the times of Riccardo, that of isolated nation state economies, each of which running a more or less full gamut of industries and trading with the rest of the world goods totally manufactured in their economy. "Exports are goods or services made domestically and sold to a foreigner." - that's the accepted definition.

However, what about of the reality of transnational corporations running assembly chains across borders? If foreign companies take away their know how, their investments, their marketing and branding, do you think PRC will maintain the same levels of exports? People who want an iPhone and can afford it will settle for a Huawei? Highly doubtful.

That's the end of this affair. Decoupling. Not a deal.
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ettrader
Nov 12, 2019 12:58pm
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I don't know what more the Fed can do for him they're already pumping $100s Billions in QE and slashing interest rates at all time record highs in the stock market ffs. This is going to be a disaster corporate bonds are already junk and run into Trillions, the US debt has doubled since the last crash the list goes on. As long as it keeps flowing it'll keep the upward momentum with Trumps deal or no deal nonsense timed to perfection. At some point the music will stop with highly inflated assets and no plan left to recover the situation.
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kminler
Nov 12, 2019 10:40am
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like the boy who cried wolf, Trump has worn out his listeners.
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QuantumTunel
Nov 12, 2019 11:13am
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Quoting Vancarbon
That's a threat then .
That's a reality check for corrupted Chinese authoritarian state.
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OnlineAddict
Nov 12, 2019 3:24pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Is there anyone he hasn't offended in that speech .
Only whiny pussies could be offended by that speech.
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fxsport
Nov 12, 2019 4:08pm
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Quoting GillyFX
{quote} We have also quite good evidence that the trade war has so far been a disaster for USA, and it will go on, is my prediction. The Chinese...
What PLANET are you living on? The US economy is still going strong with full employment and consistent GDP while the Chinese have seen declining GDP and it will only continue due to the Hong Kong situation.

Your life experience does give you a different perspective than most but frankly following 'Eastern Protocols' hasn't benefited the US as much as it has China. Boast, bragging, bravado, whatever you wish to call it - I'm not a fan either; results speak volumes to me.
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AnniLi
Nov 12, 2019 10:35pm
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Great series of 'factual' (hopefully) stories with generally strong feelings being held in relative check and much too long for Bigfoot and twitter. I have also lived in Zhengzhou and Zhumadian (also Henan), but also New York and Glasgow. These experiences matter to the extent that you end up seeing people as people not China, USA or Scotland.

It's very hard to recognize Trump as American at all. Certainly the economic philosophy is not American, the manners are not, and the character is not.
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fxsport
Nov 12, 2019 12:23pm
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Quoting NotAtrader
How on earth can you blame on FED? FED are just doing their job, while you never shut your mouth up throwing the markets in every possible directions.
Actually Trump is "partially" correct about the FED raising rates too fast....The US FED has a history of waiting too long to raise then raising too fast and too much causing crashes....

Can anyone say Alan Greenspan?

When Swiss rates are negative, when Japan is negative and the EU is thinking about another round of QE please tell me why the US FED would continue to raise rates? The mandate of the FED is to achieve full employment (check) and to have inflation at 2% y/y.

In addition with the higher US rates vs. China (yuan) the effects of the tariffs weren't as 'strong' as they could have been.

So while I understand what Trump means and partially agree with him I do however disagree with his bluntness....
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fxsport
Nov 12, 2019 12:25pm
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Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Gold markets don't believe you.
Of course they dont because all Trump is doing is saying out loud and in public what is 'normally' said behind closed doors. Its a new day.....
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GillyFX
Nov 14, 2019 9:32am — Edited
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Follow up from above, as I though it is necessary to have people open their eyes, ears and think for themselves, not only listen to all BS and "fake news" (Nice term, Donald....I think you invented it, or at least gave more life to it....LOL).
And then it maybe becomes more visible, clear, and focused on, as the administration after administration in the WH dont do anything about it, they only continue to issue more bonds (USD 60 bln month by month), as it is normal pace of living, but now even lying and telling the economy is "best in history of mankind". Fed Chair is obliged to point this out, as mentioned, but the middle US citizen dont understand the magnitude of it, or they simply refuse it, and the challenge there will be to manage it, as they swallow uncritical Donald`s big BS of "best economy in history of mankind" (He should be impeached only to express such wrongful and fake news officially).

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/96...ckoning-for-us
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ekan
Nov 13, 2019 12:15am
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Quoting GillyFX
{quote} You are a proffessor moving around in Soy Cowboy and Nana Place, I can see....Enjoy time in Soy Cowboy and Nana !
Wow, Gilly, you went straight for the kill and started insinuating about me getting fun times with girls in the notorious soi's off Sukhumvit road, something you obviously disapprove of, as any decent person would. Ts ts ts ts. How mean. You know what it means when people stop debating ideas (which is what I do), and start hurling cheap ad hominem insults, right?

Quoting GillyFX
{quote} Obviously you dont have much experience in that direction, I can see.
Which direction would that be? I cannot boast a 43-year long career, just 20-something years (so far), so it would appear I happen to be younger. A lot of those years were spent working in Taiwan, Singapore and also, PRC. Yes, 5 years in another 3rd tier provincial capital s**thole just like Zhengzhou. So, please....

Quoting GillyFX
We have also quite good evidence that the trade war has so far been a disaster for USA, and it will go on, is my prediction.
Actually, we don't, exactly the opposite. Month after month, the data comes out and it shows USA economy holding up remarkably well. There is the curious case of the missing inflation, but I think the recent events on the repo markets are beginning to shed light on the cause - it is the bottomless derivative pit sucking dollars faster than Fed creates them. Add the middle class wage stagnation and debt capacity being maxed out, and there you go. This portends the end of the Asian export-driven growth model, something I won't cry about at all when it comes to pass.

Lastly, you, and apparently so many commentators here judgin by what I keep reading all the time, get blindsided by Donald's tweeting machine as well as their own emotional response to the man himself, whether they love him or hate him. this error is to think that he is driving this alone. That this is some kind of his pet project that everyone else is secretly against. You can't be more wrong. Congress is united in their anti-PRC stance, the only issue both parties agree on, and they are much more hardline than The Man. And most key figures of Trump ADMINISTRATION - Pence, Pompeo, Navarro - are staunchly anti-CCP. There is a broad and increasing anti-PRC sentiment in the American public. This means that not only does Trump not feel a great pressure to reach a deal, an obviously bad and desperate deal will backfire on him in a major way. And he is all too aware of it, this is what his tweets we are discussing here are intended to show.
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Vancarbon
Nov 12, 2019 10:26am
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Is there anyone he hasn't offended in that speech .
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fxsport
Nov 12, 2019 4:00pm
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Quoting GillyFX
Open threats directly to the Chinese is the last he should do, and will NOT work !! He is not only missing western behaviour and business codes, but have no clue of Chinese culture and business behaviour. They will not accept the threatening and rather buy bananas, oranges, and meat from Africa, Latin America and Australia, than bend over on this stupid threat. Their export has a wide room to other partners, and even if it should not fully compensate for it, they can be without the export portion to US, in worst case. Import cost (Trump`s Lotto...
While I would love to go into details ekan was extremely detailed and I agree with ekan. I would only add this - just because things have always been done a "certain way" doesn't mean there aren't other ways and sometimes better ways to get things done.
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GillyFX
Nov 12, 2019 12:25pm
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Open threats directly to the Chinese is the last he should do, and will NOT work !! He is not only missing western behaviour and business codes, but have no clue of Chinese culture and business behaviour. They will not accept the threatening and rather buy bananas, oranges, and meat from Africa, Latin America and Australia, than bend over on this stupid threat. Their export has a wide room to other partners, and even if it should not fully compensate for it, they can be without the export portion to US, in worst case. Import cost (Trump`s Lotto tariffs) in the US for all this goods are needed to be picked up by the importers, Americal consumers, increasing inflation, and interest rates....haha, the opposite of what he is blaming Powel for now. What a battle plan....!!
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ekan
Nov 12, 2019 10:34am
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I saw a sudden spike down on cable.....then came in to check, and I read Florida Man is up to tweeting again!

Keep up the good work, Don. This time Ms. Market shrugged it off, but despair not, you will grab her the next time...or the next
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Robert1991
Nov 12, 2019 10:29am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Is there anyone he hasn't offended in that speech .
Mexicans
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QuantumTunel
Nov 12, 2019 11:20am
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If people were trading based on charts, they'd mentioned it was 3,100 major resistance of S&P500 and pull back was expected. Just stop glaring at someone's tweeter and concentrate on your own trading.
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mrlfx
Nov 12, 2019 11:22pm
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Quoting ekan
{quote} And why, pray, should the President of USA need concern himself with Chinese culture and business behaviour? .
So, you should be fine with China not bothering about US culutr and business behaviour. But why is US crying about how Chinese do their business in China. All US businesses should leave and forget about $700+ sales in Chinese market in 2018.

Quoting ekan
{quote} Actually we have a real nice case to test that theory going on right now, the African swine disease that has decimated their staple protein source, the pig. .
Its because everything about China is huge in scale. But don't worry. China will change their pork eating to chicken or beef eating habits until they vanish african swine flu.

Quoting ekan
{quote}Even so, no other trading partner has the purchasing power USA commands. EU is the second largest economy after USA in absolute terms and after PRC on PPP basis, and 3rd on per capita basis (after Japan). EU has much much smaller trade balance with PRC. The reason for this goes beyond difference in purchasing power. .
China is now actually the largest retail market surpassing US in recent years. US still is larger in consumption spending but in terms of consumption of manufactured items , China is now larger and will only grow. It also shows Chinese government's goals of moving its economy away from export led to consumption led economy is successful. China will be perfectly fine without US market and still grow 5-6% for decades.
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RossEdwards
Nov 13, 2019 1:00am
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Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Only whiny pussies could be offended by that speech.
In a thread that for a change, is marked by some thoughtful, interesting and diverse contributions from members with different but variously informed views on the subject.... it is refreshingly consistent that you seek to revert to, and reduce that civil dialogue with another of of your characteristically offensively framed comments.
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GillyFX
Nov 12, 2019 3:53pm — Edited
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Quoting ekan
{quote} And why, pray, should the President of USA need concern himself with Chinese culture and business behaviour? This isn't some business meeting of a desperate little Western firm trying to clinch that precious deal with a big Shenzhen...or even better....Zhengzhou....behemoth SOE, so their CEO needs to smile while drinking stinking baijiu. Quite the opposite, an overly deferral and fawning attitude to the Chinese will be counter productive. The side that supplies the cultural coordinate system is the one that holds the power, and that is exactly...
Ekan, It is interesting to see many different thoughts and angels to it, but for me it did not change my view or content of the notices you responded to, as I have my thoughts from business experience in Far East, "All" Americas , MENA, India, Russia, and China in particular, for some 43 years now. I accept your views, but disagree to lot of it. Scientific and complex approach is not my game. We have also quite good evidence that the trade war has so far been a disaster for USA, and it will go on, is my prediction. The Chinese has already made Donald look like a fool and it will continue, unless he understand what is going on, but I think he has shown he is too stupid to do. You also think that Donald can walk around and behave like a shitbag, and have the Chinese to kneel for him.....haha, ok. Case closed from my side too. Obviously you dont have much experience in that direction, I can see. You are a proffessor moving around in Soy Cowboy and Nana Place, I can see. I lived 12 years in Far East Asia, including China, 3 years, and 2 of them in Zhengzhou, in Henan province, the city you mention. You have a very different opinion to myself on how to deal with Chinese, and that is ok, I dont mind sometimes it may be scientific and sometimes it is really simplistic. I prefer the last, even we are forced to drink the terrible baijio (as you mention) in any scenarios, during the negotiations sessions.
On the "pork experiment" you are refering to, you should know that the Chinese has already cut a good deal with Denmark last week, if you did not catch that. Denmark is a large producer of pork, and China is also nego with other producers in Europe too, so no need for US pork forward. Price will go up, as you mention, due to the Swine flu ongoing in China, and Vietnam and other neighbouring countries there, but China has many processes to secure their needs forward, which will make them less dependent on US, and they can enjoy more the jokes and announcements from your Donald. Lots of things can happen forward, and I do not know the facit of it, but one thing for sure, the old saying of; "shut up and listening, and dont talk to reveal how stupid you are, or talk of your ideas all time, and reveal it". I guess Your Donald never heard of that one….?? Enjoy time in Soy Cowboy and Nana !
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Tony112
Nov 12, 2019 11:30am
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Attached Image
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NotAtrader
Nov 12, 2019 11:30am
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How on earth can you blame on FED? FED are just doing their job, while you never shut your mouth up throwing the markets in every possible directions.
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Vancarbon
Nov 12, 2019 10:14am
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That's a threat then .
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Vancarbon
Nov 12, 2019 10:30am
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Quoting Robert1991
{quote} Mexicans

lol
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satish37
Nov 12, 2019 7:23pm
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Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Only whiny pussies could be offended by that speech.

"whiny pussies" is buy signal or sell signal ?
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fxsport
Nov 12, 2019 12:23pm
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Quoting QuantumTunel
{quote} Gold crashed first and now has desperate attempts to get back at least 20% of the drop.
Your comment has nothing to do with Trumps speech.....
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afevir
Nov 12, 2019 10:16am
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afevir
Nov 13, 2019 1:05am
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https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1194534768806789120
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GillyFX
Nov 12, 2019 4:47pm — Edited
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Quoting fxsport
{quote} What PLANET are you living on? The US economy is still going strong with full employment and consistent GDP while the Chinese have seen declining GDP and it will only continue due to the Hong Kong situation. Your life experience does give you a different perspective than most but frankly following 'Eastern Protocols' hasn't benefited the US as much as it has China. Boast, bragging, bravado, whatever you wish to call it - I'm not a fan either; results speak volumes to me.
Fxsport, I follow you on the rationale of far better economy in the US. Employment data, CPI, GNP is moving good. But there is a parameter / figure we dont hear so much about, and you should look closer at, the accummulating Trade deficit, and the US debt. The US Federal debt is accellerating, and not being reduced, as Donald promissed all of you, 3 years ago. It is moving the opposite direction, adding some USD 2.4 trillion the period he was in WH. Now hitting USD 20.6 trillion. And every month US lends USD 55-60 bln to pay the bills, and have their wheels go around. Is this "great economy" ?? Dont blame Obama and other Presidents, as Trump is doing this, even with more speed. (Check the details on the net as I dont need to say something that should be well known if you trade something related to USD.)
On China economy, yes it has been very heated ; GDP Growth was above 7.5%, now down to 6, and some below, but still a growth rate more than double of the US !!. At same time they have made strategic investment wisely in undeveloped countries. I saw them buying lots of valuable Resources in Africa, gas in Turkmenistan, (some examples I`ve seen closely) as it was cheaper than their own. They also bought lots of strategic technology companies in Europe and Latin America last 3-4 years. Also one thing Ekan got wrong (iPhone Technology and "quality"); the Chinese cannot spell the word: "Patent". And they can hardly spell the work "contract" too. They dont care, and do what they like, mening they will not respect it regardless of what agreements made with them. When I lived in city of Zhengzhou, I saw the largest Apple factory in the world there, just opened. No it is NOT in the USA, it is there in the middle of inland China..... They had 80,000 employees lined up to make the iPhone 6 and 7 at that time. Now I know they have 350,000 workers manufacturing, and assemblying the iPhone there at the same factory. No one knows better how to build it. Did they copy it, Call it something else…?? I dont know...I only see people around myself changing from iPhone or Samsungs to Huawei. And there are other good Smartphones there, as I had a few, with battery capacity 4 times the iPhone. I charged it once a week......iPhone every day. Now they are Ahead on 6G technology. And US will stop them….haha. Ok, try….US is 5% of world population, even they are more industrialized than most.
And I did not mention the huge Mercedes, Audi, BMW factories around there in Henan Province, but it is the same story. Not to mention the "World factories" in Goangzhou, Goangdong province; the worlds largest city and 47 mill citicens. You thought it was Tokyo or NYC....well it is not.
If one believe in the established terms and systems, I think they have a very poor hand to play. Be prepared for the unexpected. It is also one of my main rules in FX trading.
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GillyFX
Nov 13, 2019 6:12am
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Quoting ekan
{quote} Wow, Gilly, you went straight for the kill and started insinuating about me getting fun times with girls in the notorious soi's off Sukhumvit road, something you obviously disapprove of, as any decent person would. Ts ts ts ts. How mean. You know what it means when people stop debating ideas (which is what I do), and start hurling cheap ad hominem insults, right? {quote} Which direction would that be? I cannot boast a 43-year long career, just 20-something years (so far), so it would appear I happen to be younger. A lot of those years were...
Ekan, there was not not a purpose to be mean regarding the nice places mentioned there in BK. I like to go there myself and have no reason to hide that, even I maybe 20 some years older than you….Good to see you stayed in Singapore too. I lived there for about 10 years myself and since the Place is 80% full of Chinese lots of their culture and knowledge of them comes from there too. Yes, I think ZZ was a shithole too because of the coalpower plants around puking out the bad omissions and made it hard to breath there when I was living there 2014-2016, drilling for, and producing gas in the Shangxi region. I have western friends there still (Aussies, Kiwi, Yanks, and Brits) and they tell me it has become far better as the Chinese are making progress on the cleaning and environmental activities. I left because of the polluted air. But now better they say, and I guess they figured that they cannot continue and choke themselves, like they now do in Delhi and many other Indian cities. You can read the AQI (Air Quality Index) on the net real time.
On the economy we may continue to disagree whether it is good or not. I agree it is better, than 2-3 years ago, but very far from "great" (a Trumpmendous expression), as US add continuously USD 55-60 bln to the US Federal debt every month. Up from USD 18.3 trillion to USD 20.6 trillion in the Trump period of 3 years. And it is not turning, it is in fact accelerating in the same direction. This also happens when the country moves from oil import to net oil export of some 5.4 mill bbl/ day. A massive income source, and for me it tells they piss more Money the wrong way. The country is still far from running surplus, or break even, which should be the situation by now. It can show some ok Growth and signals to improve but not what was promissed (by Trump) or expected. Then to make a nation believe this is great, is a fraud, in my Dictionary.
Stay alert and good to have your opinions. I do too, and I am not saying I have the facit to this, I only have my opinion to it, and hope they fix it in some way, but then we should need to see some traces of this soon, maybe before the Election….?
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GillyFX
Nov 13, 2019 6:20am
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Quoting mrlfx
{quote} Chinese gdp growth in last qtr was 6% while US was 1.9%. Also 6% of around $14 trillions is more than 2x of 1.9% of $21 trillions. Now don't tell me China gdp figures are manipulated as an excuse because its lame.
Good points, MrlFX and the math in line with my rough calculations too. Agree to your thoughts and opinions. Stay tuned !

All in all for for me as a non - American, but with close relations, and respect, I am happy to have such a good "reality show" from Donald for 3 seasons now. Great entertainment, and it would be boring without him too. He has improved from the Apprentice, I think. And I think the 4th season will beat all previous. He is of course working hard to contract 4 more seasons after this. Happy for this as long as he keeps his fingers away from the nuke button…!!
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GillyFX
Nov 13, 2019 9:11am
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Thanks Powell for pointing out this very conserning area in the Group called "the US Economy". This is exactly to my point, discussed last days above. This seems to be unknown, or not understood by so many…..(not you, MrlFX !). And Your Donald is never mentioning it with one hint or one word. To me that is more worrying. Fed Chair needs to address it, and he sure did.

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/962554-fed-chair-powell-lower-rates-does-not-mean
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ashimkhan
Nov 12, 2019 10:25am
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He say any usd up
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Maxthetrader
Nov 12, 2019 10:51am
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So people admit to trading their accounts just on Trumps words?
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b_hand
Nov 12, 2019 3:55pm
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No Deal Ever!!!
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m0hmz
Nov 12, 2019 10:29am
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There is no plan to cancel tariffs
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Trader#86AA
Nov 12, 2019 10:52am
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It's not a new thing to move the market. Chinese know that's the Plan A. Everyone knows it.
Bloomberg's commentator cries that he hasn't removed uncertainty.
There's no certainty. Unless he says these tarrifs will saty no matter what.
I'd like that actually. That would be bearish for a while and then bullish for years
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clockwork71
Nov 12, 2019 11:21am
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Quoting kminler
like the boy who cried wolf, Trump has worn out his listeners.
Gold markets don't believe you.
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Don100
Nov 12, 2019 11:23am
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Gold is goin up
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QuantumTunel
Nov 12, 2019 11:51am
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Quoting Don100
Gold is goin up
Gold crashed first and now has desperate attempts to get back at least 20% of the drop.
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mrlfx
Nov 12, 2019 11:27pm
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Quoting fxsport
{quote} What PLANET are you living on? The US economy is still going strong with full employment and consistent GDP while the Chinese have seen declining GDP and it will only continue due to the Hong Kong situation. Your life experience does give you a different perspective than most but frankly following 'Eastern Protocols' hasn't benefited the US as much as it has China. Boast, bragging, bravado, whatever you wish to call it - I'm not a fan either; results speak volumes to me.
Chinese gdp growth in last qtr was 6% while US was 1.9%. Also 6% of around $14 trillions is more than 2x of 1.9% of $21 trillions.
Now don't tell me China gdp figures are manipulated as an excuse because its lame.
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