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The Swamp

  • #46,741
  • Nov 8, 2019 2:43pm Nov 8, 2019 2:43pm
Quoting baldmonk
{quote} where do you see bullishness in the US session candles? {image}
I don't...I said I see a bullish SET UP, not bullishness. I closed my shorts, just to be sure. I might be wrong, we will see...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #46,742
  • Nov 8, 2019 2:59pm Nov 8, 2019 2:59pm
The last hour. Unless something crazy happens now.. It looks like the week will end under 1088. The day support at 1015 atm looks to hold. Until the day closes below 1015, pa is likely to bounce. New week and bear day numbers coming Sunday. 4h is freshly bearish since yesterday, the 4h trend can last months.. I'm selling the bounce, when I get a signal. Knowing where R is..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,743
  • Nov 8, 2019 3:05pm Nov 8, 2019 3:05pm
just some observation for light weekend entertainment: EU appears to be a good pair for martingaler.

on daily, once it breaks previous high, go short, and, if caught on the wrong side, martingale up

do the reverse when breaking low.

as long as you manage the risk of your total basket and be extra patient.....

haven't done any backtesting, but this classic suicidal strategy seems to be working since may 2018.
  • #46,744
  • Edited Nov 9, 2019 1:38pm Nov 8, 2019 3:10pm | Edited Nov 9, 2019 1:38pm
COT report for the week ended on Nov 05:

The institutions sentiment in EurUsd deteriorated further this week. Hedge Funds increased their bearish bets by 7,391 contracts or $1.02 billions from the COT report ending on Tuesday Nov 05. Current holdings longs $22.7 billions vs Shorts $31.1 billions, and current net short 60,746 contracts, net short value $8.4 billions.

42% long exposure vs 58% short exposure, which 1% decreased in longs and 1% increased in shorts from the previous week
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  • #46,745
  • Nov 8, 2019 3:22pm Nov 8, 2019 3:22pm
Quoting Boulder
COT report for the week ended on Nov 15: The institutions sentiment in EurUsd deteriorated further this week. Hedge Funds increased their bearish bets by 7,391 contracts or $1.02 billions from the COT report ending on Tuesday Nov 15. Current holdings longs $22.7 billions vs Shorts $31.1 billions, and current net short 60,746 contracts, net short value $8.4 billions. 42% long exposure vs 58% short exposure, which 1% decreased in longs and 1% increased in shorts from the previous week {image}
sell the bounce is my plan.. if 1015 holds,, the week may be 107x,,,, the day 108x.. the 4h hard 1075.. norm 1095.. I plan to sell 4h and higher if I can..
week and day or guesstimate, these others will drop some Sunday

1h 1089/90..
30 min 1079/70
15 min 1050 1057
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,746
  • Nov 8, 2019 3:28pm Nov 8, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting baldmonk
just some observation for light weekend entertainment: EU appears to be a good pair for martingaler. on daily, once it breaks previous high, go short, and, if caught on the wrong side, martingale up do the reverse when breaking low. as long as you manage the risk of your total basket and be extra patient..... haven't done any backtesting, but this classic suicidal strategy seems to be working since may 2018.
This place if full of ghost traders.. Many that followed your recommendation.. Just 1 trade away from being margin called. This isn't the place for such recommendations.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,747
  • Nov 8, 2019 3:31pm Nov 8, 2019 3:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sell the bounce is my plan.. if 1015 holds,, the week may be 107x,,,, the day 108x.. the 4h hard 1075.. norm 1095.. I plan to sell 4h and higher if I can.. week and day or guesstimate, these others will drop some Sunday 1h 1089/90.. 30 min 1079/70 15 min 1050 1057
ok.. I kept all my positions... I am out of here... Have a good weekend...
  • #46,748
  • Nov 8, 2019 3:43pm Nov 8, 2019 3:43pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} ok.. I kept all my positions... I am out of here... Have a good weekend...
I wish it would take out 1015 before close or gap open below. 1.0846 is looking better since 1088 is closed below..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,749
  • Nov 8, 2019 5:29pm Nov 8, 2019 5:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I wish it would take out 1015 before close or gap open below. 1.0846 is looking better since 1088 is closed below..
Not sure where your prices closed out. Mine painted 1.10138 in the last 3 minutes. The good ol closing bell rush.

I'm thinking monday would be a reversal day. We've had 5 bearish days. I'm sure those guys sitting on their shorts would want to cash out partially at least. 1.1000 - 1.1015 seems like it could be a good place to start cashing out.

The question really is how high will it bounce before falling again.
  • #46,750
  • Nov 8, 2019 5:39pm Nov 8, 2019 5:39pm
Quoting baldmonk
just some observation for light weekend entertainment: EU appears to be a good pair for martingaler. on daily, once it breaks previous high, go short, and, if caught on the wrong side, martingale up do the reverse when breaking low. as long as you manage the risk of your total basket and be extra patient..... haven't done any backtesting, but this classic suicidal strategy seems to be working since may 2018.
You should google hanover's posts regarding martingale and grids.

The summary is as such:
1)Money management alone can't provide an edge.
2)Money management only accelerates or decelarates your win/loss.

You may think some of us martingale in here because we sometimes add positions as price moves in the wrong direction. But there is a big difference:
1)We generally have an edge that gives us a price forecast - and that forecast tends to be right.
2)As an extension to (1) - we know when we're wrong and when we will cut loss. Unlike the regular traders who martingale, we do not trade directionless.

Those 2 reasons alone separates a lot of traders in this thread from the other regular traders.
  • #46,751
  • Nov 8, 2019 8:05pm Nov 8, 2019 8:05pm
EURUSD H4
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #46,752
  • Nov 8, 2019 8:17pm Nov 8, 2019 8:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} month, since july 2008.. 11 years.. {image}
...Gator so you don't think e/u will break out of this two monster trend lines?

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The Chonchy
  • #46,753
  • Nov 8, 2019 8:23pm Nov 8, 2019 8:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} hey i got a number for u.. ask about snapper and shrimp etc.. Zack is the one i talked to.. 985 543 6871..
The Chonchy
  • #46,754
  • Nov 8, 2019 10:54pm Nov 8, 2019 10:54pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Gone short GBPUSD today based on price action of yesterday's bar.
taken profit yesterday.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #46,755
  • Nov 9, 2019 2:25am Nov 9, 2019 2:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a picture is worth a thousand words. I take it we got different definitions of "long time". Summer range may be over.. November till Christmas usually keeps its direction. Just saying. besides my month, week, day, 4h, 1h, 30 min 15 m, 5 min being bearish. I dont see where one can call this bullish with a straight face. Sure it may bounce some.. Those have all been sold for a while now.. 2018 day trend is down.. I will follow up posting month shortly.. {image}
Look at the pitchfork superimposed on your chart.
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  • #46,756
  • Nov 9, 2019 5:57am Nov 9, 2019 5:57am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Look at the pitchfork superimposed on your chart.{image}
yep... I'm eu bearish and usd bullish... With these conditions..

eu 1015 has to get a day close below, until it does, I expect it to bounce some.

usdx has the same condition with 98.48 as resistance.

It may take a few tries to break these.

some buys near eu 1015 could be decent scalps. Maybe enough to test week 108x or day 109x.. These numbers change Sunday. Eu pa is bearish into 1015 support. This and 1026 is a reason I didnt sell this area Friday. Plus I was waiting to see if week closed below 1088.. The week did.. now 1015 needs a close below, and usdx needs a close above on day. To have great confidence on the direction. Atm without these closes, pa is prone to bounce away.

Usdx looks like eu's opposite.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,757
  • Nov 10, 2019 9:18am Nov 10, 2019 9:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} example of 200 day ema.. use what you like as added levels.. This one is using sets of 1750.. assuming 350 pips is normal as the trend drops. 1750 half. atm pa reached 1026 a norm in the last move since 108x low and recent 200 test. I think all is bearish. What I think and reality is not always the same. Its always going to look bearish at a bottom, it's always going to look bullish at a top. I dont want to add fresh shorts w/o some confirmation.. such as a week closing lower. Because places like 1026 are 1/2 way points.. often bulls in...
if the bounce from 1015 is limited. Pa closing the day below could be another decent leg down, 130 pips plus.. I added little likely weak R.. I will update
timed R after the market opens and resets time..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,758
  • Nov 10, 2019 11:06am Nov 10, 2019 11:06am
Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. Monday. Volume may be off.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,759
  • Nov 10, 2019 5:07pm Nov 10, 2019 5:07pm
euro may retrace to 1.1075... SL 1.1006... if it goes below this level its possible its a failed pattern in which case it could well impulse down. it might be a good long RR wise. I don't know what i am doing - don't take my advice, just sharing ideas
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  • #46,760
  • Nov 10, 2019 6:47pm Nov 10, 2019 6:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
The last hour. Unless something crazy happens now.. It looks like the week will end under 1088. The day support at 1015 atm looks to hold. Until the day closes below 1015, pa is likely to bounce. New week and bear day numbers coming Sunday. 4h is freshly bearish since yesterday, the 4h trend can last months.. I'm selling the bounce, when I get a signal. Knowing where R is..
soft Week dropped to 1076.3
soft day now. 1082.7
hard 4h is still 1047, soft 4h 1042
hard 1 h 1091, soft 1h 1024
hard 30 min 1077, soft 1021
hard 15 min 1055, soft 1021
hard 5 min 1032, soft 1021''

the hard 5 min has worked since it closed under 1170 last week 11/07/2019. 150 pips so far.

I think 1015 will break, but it hasn't yet. I still plan to sell bounces.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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