S&P500 Futures Talks & Ideas

The SPX is continuing to make new highs.

A good level is now in place at ~ 3078.

This level should offer sufficient support to the upside provided the price action offers an entry.

I agree. This should be a sustained move. Late in the week news of the trade deal issues should of made the market drop....but it didn’t

Everyone is still short this market but the bull signs are there for me

Cheers

In terms of scheduled economic releases there is nothing that concerns me over the this week and next.

I will also be watching developments on the trade deal, this still has the potential to blast the SPX south.

And of course Trumpy could rumble into action on Twitter but I will not be paying attention to his comments.

Where do you get your info on market positioning, is it from COT positioning data?

I agree. I think the trade deal is the biggest thing to worry about right now and now that tariffs may be lifted the market is optimistic. I guess most don’t think the deal will happen or that the ATHs are “to high” and must come down.

I still see it coming down at some point but nothing is screaming to me about selling. Looks like all buys until we get some solid fact news not speculation

I use CFTC.gov and IG client sentiment for the markets direction.

As we go up sentiment will be more and more on the short side for retailers. At some point retailers are right

Things is we need to see some crazy short from retailers...they will be right at the turning point...then they'll switch to the long side as we go down

And reverse will come

yes it’s coming soon I believe. This little pump is just a nice boost. I have my pending orders waiting for sells but as we can see bulls are in the market still.

depending on what we see at the end of the week I may be out of my buys but probably still won’t be short until I hear some news of the trade deal.

When the plunge comes it will be beautiful and large.

Cheers

Hopefully you keep your stops tight or you trailed those sells.

I closed with a small profit yesterday... Thanks!!!
trump is doing good ... but the markets are nervous.

Where are your orders? near which areas ?

Maybe up to 3150/80 but not sure

I hope sooner because its slow

Good to hear. Yea very much so.

Market broke north from a significant consolidation. Now that there is more positive sentiment this market could go higher from here if Q4 earnings estimates are currently being priced in. Some estimates suggests an increase as much as 10% from the current quarter which would see the SPX at about 3300. Personally I think this optimistic and 5-6% a better more conservative handle.

That would mean 3150 / 3180. - Please note I will not be shorting this market and am not suggesting anyone does.

I expect there to be pull backs to trade long as a large number of market participants are probably looking to enter at a discount to current prices..

If the market pulls back 5 -10 % I would be consider a longer position trade.

In the meantime I am looking to enter smaller positions on 15min / 1 hour time frames and possibly trail the stop on part of the position.

I have some concerns with shorting the SPX right now.

A) SPX making new all time highs. I do not like to trade against the trend unless technical breakdown in price offers an entry.

B) Shorting from all time highs against the directional bias seems rather like catching a falling knife, only more difficult as there are no price levels to use as a reference.

Just my thoughts, I would be very interested to see anyone's approach / strategy to shorting at these levels if it is successful.

My sells are lower than that assuming there will be a large crash down but as of now i am still bull on the market. I dont see anything to change that at the moment.

I wont be looking to sell until we are fighting the 3000 mark IMO . Until then i am buying. But the week is coming to a close so no new ones for me until i see what next week brings.

I dont rush the S&P and i dont swing trade it. I like the moves to be clear and pronounced .

Yea same here. I am not convinced there is enough here to short. With the ATH being made weekly how could anyone argue short.

Ride this bull till it dies for me!!!

I don't trade the S&P but remember from years ago from a Larry Williams seminar him saying that the S&P isn't designed to have down trends ;-) He always struck me as being very well researched and a very savvy trader(like him or not) I came across this link to a newsletter from a course he published.Please ignore the link in the newsletter as it is not my intention to direct anyone to it.

May be of interest may not be......
Regards
lpp

Short Selling Patterns of the S&P 500
By: Larry Williams
The following is an excerpt from Larry Williams' The Future Millionaires Trading Course
There are numerous price patterns that act as catapults to short-term up and down moves in the stock market. These can be traded best, in my opinion, in the S&P 500. I’d like to explain some of these patterns to you.
Perhaps the most important thing I can tell you about shorting the S&P 500 is that there is a very strong bias for this market to decline on Thursday and Friday, leading into a short-term low being made on Monday and/or Tuesday.
Most major S&P breads start on a Thursday, build up a real head of steam on Friday, and complete the crash on Monday. Thus, the aggressive short seller should pay close attention to this end-of-the-week selling opportunity.
Accordingly, I have developed a handful of useful trading systems based on this strong tendency.
Pattern #1 – This pattern combines a very weak market with our day-of-the-week pattern. The requirement is that on Thursday the S&P market closes lower than the previous day’s low and that the range for Thursday is greater than the range for the previous day. If so, we then await the next day’s opening. Should that open be greater than the previous close, we will sell at the previous low, on a stop. 78% of 50 trades made $41.450 with a hefty $819 per trade average profit.
Pattern #2 – Outside days (those with a higher high and lower low than the previous day) do not take place often. But we should be on the alert, as they set up powerful sell signals.
Let’s say that today is an outside day with an up close, sell tomorrow at the price of today’s low. This short sell works well on every day except Tuesday.
Pattern #3 – How about this: a pattern with a 90% success rate! On a Thursday or Friday, we will sell at the previous day’s low, if we have what I call a Fake Out pattern. Other people call this a “key reversal day”. At times a market will in fact reverse on one of these days; if not, though look out!
Fake Out requires a day with a lower high and low than the previous day. BUT, with a close greater than the previous close. Also, the day prior to the Fake Out day must have a lower high, lower low and lower close than the day prior to it.
If the Fake Out day occurs on a Wednesday or Thursday, we will sell the following day at the low of the Fake Out day.
Pattern #4 – This information has had many occurrences over past years. All we require is for a Thursday close to be lower than Wednesday’s close. Then, on Friday, we will sell at Friday’s opening, minus 30% of Thursday’s range.
Pattern #5 – If the close on Thursday is greater than Wednesday’s high, an overbought condition exists. I will sell the S&P on Friday at its open, minus 20% of Thursday’s range.
Pattern #6 – This pattern allows us to sell on Monday or Tuesday, if the previous day closed at a price less than the opening of that same day. Yet the close for that day must be greater than the previous day’s close. Given this unique pattern, we will sell at the low of this up-close day (that closes above the previous close) on the next day.
Pattern #7 – Here is a nifty little pattern. All it requires is a Wednesday with a lower low than both previous trading sessions, and the low of the day prior to Wednesday be higher than the low of the day before that. With this condition we will sell, on Thursday, at Wednesday’s low.
Pattern #8 – This pattern is similar to the one above. We require that Thursday’s low be less than Wednesday’s low, and Wednesday’s low greater than the low the day before that. As above, Thursday’s low must also be lower than the low two days ago.
Pattern #9 (Along with #10) – These are also patterns with similar elements. If Wednesday’s close is less than the low seen on Tuesday, sell on Thursday at the opening minus 40% of the previous day’s range.
Pattern #10 – Is the same information as #9, but it must occur on Thursday. And we’ll be selling on Friday at 80% of the previous days’ range subtracted from the opening.
Pattern #11 – We’ll finish with one of my favorites. It requires that today’s low in the S&P be at least 15 points (that’s 3 ticks) greater than the previous high. This is an indication of a blow-off gap and lower prices. The sell signal comes the day following the gap day, if and only if, prices decline 45% of the range of the blow-off day from the next day’s opening. The 90% accuracy is a dream come true for short sellers.

Trade triggered at mentioned level, currently live.

Hey good to see you here. Thx for the info. Look forward to reading it over

Nice entry. I look forward to the next leg. This small pull we have now is ripe for picking.

No news is good news

I like the way it reacted to 3080. Nice little PA to study.

First position closed at first resistance, second position on trailing stop.

The snapshot is from my trading account.

Same, price formed a spike of the level. Obviously I don't know what the market will do next, but I have moved the stop to break even on the remaining position and intend to trail the stop and see what the market will give me.

I closed the first position for a small profit and the rest I will leave to mechanics. I am not going to form any opinions on the remaining position and take what the SPX will give.

Likely wake up to a stop out, that does not matter, my tactic now is purely mechanical. ~There is not much resistance to the upside, then entry into limbo. A trailing stop loss below swing lows on the 4h might give more profit.