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How to avoid stopp loss...anyone doing that? 52 replies

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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #141
  • Oct 31, 2019 9:53am Oct 31, 2019 9:53am
Quoting LloydOz
... - I differentiate markets into flow vs stock. And, on another level, durable vs non-durable. Gold is very high stock and very durable. Things like Hogs and OJ are at the other extreme - mostly flow, limited stock, not durable...
Agreed...I refer to these as "hard" or "consumable" assets. Taking a balanced approach to building wealth with these is difficult to say the least, but very important in my opinion.

Quoting LloydOz
...{edit - they freeze OJ I think, so? Hmmm...and outside of Trading Places, that is everything I know about OJ}...
I Love that movie..."Looking good Billy Ray...Feeling good Luis..."

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  • #142
  • Oct 31, 2019 10:13am Oct 31, 2019 10:13am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Yeah agreed, had actually thought it would give an opportunity to go long with a dip today but didnt manage to get that Dip, instead now, im seeing price show this picture, which coincides with your observation too at the moment {image}
This is playing out well have gotten my first long signal and opportunity for this cross since the beginning of the week


But of a dip to retest that shoulder level...Lets see
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #143
  • Edited 7:00pm Nov 3, 2019 5:05pm | Edited 7:00pm
Opening Gap on Nat Gas took my TP level for 430+ pips on 1/2 of my position. Stop on the remaining 1/2 is moved up to lock approximately 260 pips. Patience paid off...Yeah!
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  • #144
  • Nov 4, 2019 9:08am Nov 4, 2019 9:08am
It would appear that the opening gap has attracted some selling, but I suspect this selling is (like me) mostly profit taking. Price rose through out the London session to come to within 25 pips (again) of my last and final TP. I may have to wait a bit longer on this...and I suspect this time the gap will fill in this week.
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  • #145
  • Nov 4, 2019 3:32pm Nov 4, 2019 3:32pm
Anyone remember this guy from about a year ago who lost his client's money selling Nat Gas options and getting margin called??

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-fund-manager


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Nice Rolex!
  • #146
  • Nov 4, 2019 3:33pm Nov 4, 2019 3:33pm
Quoting DonPato
Opening Gap on Nat Gas took my TP level for 430+ pips on 1/2 of my position. Stop on the remaining 1/2 is moved up to lock approximately 260 pips. Patience paid off...Yeah! {image}
Yes indeed! Great Job Don! I've been waiting for this move for weeks now as well!
  • #147
  • Nov 4, 2019 3:46pm Nov 4, 2019 3:46pm
Quoting C8H18
{quote} Yes indeed! Great Job Don! I've been waiting for this move for weeks now as well!
Congratulations! I hope you were profitable!!
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  • #148
  • Nov 4, 2019 3:53pm Nov 4, 2019 3:53pm
Quoting vpn
Anyone remember this guy from about a year ago who lost his client's money selling Nat Gas options and getting margin called?? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-fund-manager https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNYNMM0hXXY Nice Rolex!
This is why we trade for ourselves. It takes longer to learn and understand but then you have control over whether you take the risk and how much risk you're willing to take. And why I will never again trade anyone else's money. The repercussions are just too great. It's bad enough losing you own money but other people's money is just too stressful.
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  • #149
  • Nov 4, 2019 8:47pm Nov 4, 2019 8:47pm
Quoting vpn
Anyone remember this guy from about a year ago who lost his client's money selling Nat Gas options and getting margin called?? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-fund-manager https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNYNMM0hXXY Nice Rolex!
LOL! I sure do! I hate to say it, but what a schmuck! His "staff" should not have let him release that statement!

Quoting DonPato
{quote} Congratulations! I hope you were profitable!!
Thanks DP! I would have, had it been a real account! I'm still feeling my way

Quoting DonPato
{quote} This is why we trade for ourselves. It takes longer to learn and understand but then you have control over whether you take the risk and how much risk you're willing to take. And why I will never again trade anyone else's money. The repercussions are just too great. It's bad enough losing you own money but other people's money is just too stressful.
Amen to that!

I'm back in, long NatGas! Winter is coming and around the corner. I think this may be more of an investment play, for NattyGas, at least through the winter.
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Last November 5th, was the infamous day optionsellers lost his face. $3.50 (at least!) or bust!
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  • #150
  • Nov 4, 2019 11:58pm Nov 4, 2019 11:58pm
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #151
  • Nov 5, 2019 8:21am Nov 5, 2019 8:21am
Anyone here trade nat gas based on weather as an indicator? I don't but I'm curious about it... Similar to how we might monitor hurricanes during the summer.

I found this site but much of its content is behind a pay wall () so I don't know what's back there: https://www.natgasweather.com/ (I'm not affiliated with them)
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  • #152
  • Nov 5, 2019 8:27am Nov 5, 2019 8:27am
Last night's "jump" higher in Nat Gas took my limit for 555 pips. So I am now flat this market. There may be more upside to come, perhaps even to the 3.00 handle. (or as they say "three spot"). But I will now wait for signs of exhaustion to the upside and (depending on how I see it) will short back to the bottom...it may be a long wait however. Keep on Keepin on!!
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  • #153
  • Nov 5, 2019 8:32am Nov 5, 2019 8:32am
Here's heatmap of Nat Gas. Look at November. Generally a rally with 2018 having a whopping 41% gain.

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  • #154
  • Nov 5, 2019 11:03am Nov 5, 2019 11:03am
Quoting demontrade
Here's heatmap of Nat Gas. Look at November. Generally a rally with 2018 having a whopping 41% gain. {image}
This is quite informative.....

So just based on this alone buying dips would make sense as the US prepares for colder weather?
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #155
  • Nov 5, 2019 11:07am Nov 5, 2019 11:07am
Quoting vpn
Anyone here trade nat gas based on weather as an indicator? I don't but I'm curious about it... Similar to how we might monitor hurricanes during the summer. I found this site but much of its content is behind a pay wall () so I don't know what's back there: https://www.natgasweather.com/ (I'm not affiliated with them) {image}
I think this has a lot to do with where prices have headed lately. As soon as the weather starts to change you can expect Nat Gas to move suddenly in response to updated forecasts. There were a few years recently where forecasts would change suddenly and drastically so hold onto your hat. Trading right now could give you enough profits for the year or result in heartburn.

By the way, I have really enjoyed taking advantage of the new zero commission that all the stock brokers have been offering. I just bought and sold UGAZ ETF and made a quick $55. I never would have done that on the old commission structure.
  • #156
  • Edited 12:10pm Nov 5, 2019 11:43am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting demontrade
Here's heatmap of Nat Gas. Look at November. Generally a rally with 2018 having a whopping 41% gain. {image}
Yes, tremendous. Not enough data to be of significance, though - this often disappoints me with studies of this nature.

I have daily data from 1990.

When I have a lazy afternoon I might set up an Excel spreadsheet and crunch some numbers.

Being old, grumpy and being of a general unpleasant disposition, this may assume a fairly low priority.

Let's see if I can post a pic of monthly. Clearly, I would have to work with weekly data coz of adjustment discontinuities between months when they are rolled. Painful.

{edit - That's spot month, and as of now, they are monthly. Better idea. Use each contract month? So, maximum 12 columns of data and will figure out what to do then. Will sleep on it - coz once set up, can easily do for anything that may be of interest}
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  • #157
  • Nov 5, 2019 6:41pm Nov 5, 2019 6:41pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} This is quite informative..... So just based on this alone buying dips would make sense as the US prepares for colder weather?
Exactly what I thought. Add to that, chart looks quite Bullish for NG so buying dips is the way to go.
  • #158
  • Nov 5, 2019 6:51pm Nov 5, 2019 6:51pm
Here is the same chart with data from 2000.

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  • #159
  • Nov 5, 2019 7:05pm Nov 5, 2019 7:05pm
Quoting LloydOz
{quote} Yes, tremendous. Not enough data to be of significance, though - this often disappoints me with studies of this nature. I have daily data from 1990. When I have a lazy afternoon I might set up an Excel spreadsheet and crunch some numbers. Being old, grumpy and being of a general unpleasant disposition, this may assume a fairly low priority. Let's see if I can post a pic of monthly. Clearly, I would have to work with weekly data coz of adjustment discontinuities between months when they are rolled. Painful. {edit - That's spot month, and...
lol looking forward to you having a lazy arvo so we can enjoy the spreadsheet and have a look at some data......

Quoting demontrade
{quote} Exactly what I thought. Add to that, chart looks quite Bullish for NG so buying dips is the way to go.
Ive market the 2.5313 handle as a key support handle for now following the breakout above it on the daily, Am just thinking position size and timing becomes critical with it now just looking at the way it moves once it gets going.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #160
  • Nov 6, 2019 9:49am Nov 6, 2019 9:49am
Hello Friends...
Just a small heads up for all you who are currently holding long on Nat Gas. I'm starting to read some buying exhaustion at the current levels. Buyers are piling on here but I don't see price responding as before. While price IS still rising it is not rising nearly as fast in response to Delta buying inflows at practically every price level today. While I am not yet convinced price will fall (yet), I am paying some close attention to the order flow. A large round of net selling at this level will signal a drop in price...so far that hasn't happened. Just a "heads up"...consider taking profits, if you have them, or at least tightening stops.
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