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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #741
  • Nov 2, 2019 9:43am Nov 2, 2019 9:43am
Quoting majomember
{quote} Also - have you ever tried your envelopes on BTC? I tried it based on your examples above on Gold, but the envelopes are all over the place. Not the neat results like with gold. I tried with All Time High price of 20093 and with the recent high of 13940, divided by 8 to get the octave value, but it doesn't look very good. Any ideas?
BITCOIN Parabolic Moves
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  • #742
  • Nov 2, 2019 9:57am Nov 2, 2019 9:57am
Quoting majomember
{quote} Also - have you ever tried your envelopes on BTC? I tried it based on your examples above on Gold, but the envelopes are all over the place. Not the neat results like with gold. I tried with All Time High price of 20093 and with the recent high of 13940, divided by 8 to get the octave value, but it doesn't look very good. Any ideas?
majomember

to build effective operative (Octave) Envelopes you need to test the subharmonics

2 possibilities

a) you consider that Bitcoin Price Action fluctuates within the Price Range 0-20.000

20.000 / 8 = 2.500

subharmonics are 1.250, 625, 312.5, 156.25, 78.125, 39.0625, 19.503125 etc

b) you consider that Bitcoin Price Action fluctuates within the Price Range 0-25.000 (2 x 12.500=

25.000 / 8 = 3.125

subharmonics are 1.562,5, 781.25, 390.625, 195.03125 etc
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx 2 FRACTAL STRUCTURE OF TIME AND PRICE ENGLISH 17.pptx   2.2 MB | 591 downloads
  • #743
  • Nov 2, 2019 1:15pm Nov 2, 2019 1:15pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} majomember to build effective operative (Octave) Envelopes you need to test the subharmonics 2 possibilities a) you consider that Bitcoin Price Action fluctuates within the Price Range 0-20.000 20.000 / 8 = 2.500 subharmonics are 1.250, 625, 312.5, 156.25, 78.125, 39.0625, 19.503125 etc b) you consider that Bitcoin Price Action fluctuates within the Price Range 0-25.000 (2 x 12.500= 25.000 / 8 = 3.125 subharmonics are 1.562,5, 781.25, 390.625, 195.03125 etc {file}
Thanks, got it now.
Reading through your thread I kind of understand how you arrive at your octave numbers.
What I don't get is that in your Gold chart, you determined the octave number then used that for the 256 period envelope.
Here with btc you used the octave number (3125) for the 128 envelope.
I guess it is up to testing, each chart is different.
I'm only at page 27 in your thread, so I got some more reading to do, hopefully by the end I'll understand more. Fascinating stuff anyways, thanks for sharing
  • #744
  • Nov 3, 2019 4:39am Nov 3, 2019 4:39am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Clemmo17 could be here on my thread https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post11408717 posts 1395, 1397, 1398, 1400, 1401
Justement! Thank you.
  • #745
  • Edited 11:17pm Nov 3, 2019 10:02pm | Edited 11:17pm
ParisBoy, (see my edit below)

What does my APPL 60 minute chart look so different than yous in TV ?

I appear to have the same envelope setting.

Aside from the wider bands , how do I shift back 16 bars ?

Thanks

S.

Edit....

I found you TV code in #517 .... pasted exactly into Pine Editor but it will not compile.
It says : Script could not be translated from: null
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  • #746
  • Nov 4, 2019 3:51am Nov 4, 2019 3:51am
Quoting Steve666
ParisBoy, (see my edit below) What does my APPL 60 minute chart look so different than yous in TV ? I appear to have the same envelope setting. Aside from the wider bands , how do I shift back 16 bars ? Thanks S. Edit.... I found you TV code in #517 .... pasted exactly into Pine Editor but it will not compile. It says : Script could not be translated from: null {image} {image}
Steve I can not help you in coding matters. I am totally illiterate in this matter. Originally I used an existing indicator that I modified.
  • #747
  • Nov 4, 2019 9:38am Nov 4, 2019 9:38am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Steve I can not help you in coding matters. I am totally illiterate in this matter. Originally I used an existing indicator that I modified.
Thanks PB,

Its probably as simple as Pine Editor not liking the screen code grab and as such requires typing in. Nothing complex in the code. You are just changing the std. band parameters and offsetting -16.
  • #748
  • Edited Nov 5, 2019 6:01am Nov 4, 2019 11:02am | Edited Nov 5, 2019 6:01am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Let's begin with XAUUSD Right now Gold has reached 1560 $ Divide 1560 by 8 : 1560 / 8 = 195. You got your "Octave" Value Build the Centered Moving Average 256 Time Units (here in Days) Add and Substract the Octave value to the Centered Moving Average 256 TU Check the result : The Envelope 256 TU you have created includes most of the XAUUSD Data and their fluctuations. Here in Days which give you the 12 Months Trend of XAUUSD This means that XAUUSD is most sensitive to Octave / Vibration = 195 points and its harmonics {image}
Very nice, detail & clear examples parisboy ... Mean that price will return' to, after it reaches the outer envelope (even it is on smallest TF) ??
  • #749
  • Edited 10:52pm Nov 4, 2019 10:40pm | Edited 10:52pm
Interesting juncture for DXY.

A double bottom Shark.

If this runs it should be interesting on a variety of fronts.

S.
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  • #750
  • Nov 6, 2019 6:23am Nov 6, 2019 6:23am
Quoting newhope
{quote} Very nice, detail & clear examples parisboy ... Mean that price will return' to, after it reaches the outer envelope (even it is on smallest TF) ??
Most of the Time : yes. Price Action will reintegrate the Envelope.

Do your homework , empirical statistics will give you a close approximation of the effectiveness of this Envelope behaviour.

a) the Centered Moving Average of N Time Units discloses the Trend of all Cycles of duration superior to N
b) Price Action fluctuates (oscillates) around the Centerd Moving Average
c) Amplitude of Price Action fluctuation is equal to +/- 1 Octave (or its subharmonics)
d) as long as Price range is stable +/- 25 % Octave and Envelopes are effective
e) if Price Range grows above + 25 % or decreases of more than 25 %, depending of the Underlying Trend you need to DOUBLE or HALVE the Octave you use
f) the Zone between 100 and 125 % or 100 and 75 % of the Price Range is the Transition zone between 2 potential scaling UP or DOWN
g) after a transition Zone Price Action returns to its mean
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  • #751
  • Edited 2:25pm Nov 8, 2019 1:34pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting fundiwambao
{quote} Thanks Swede, for your honest and deep post I am determined to see through Geometric concepts in Forex pairs. Been heavily experimenting, and have never read so many books in such a short time {Slight Diversion} On this Forex price action journey, I consider having had 3 mentors: 1. Jonathon of forexschoolonline.com [ basics of trading naked price action ] 2. Captain Jack (CJ) aka John Saffron ( SHF and thecaptainschest.us ) [ that PRICE is not random, but directed. price patterns recur all the time ] 3. Pete aka DiamondMiner [ TIME & PRICE...
Fundiwambao,

I completely agree with all markets are manipulated in some form or fashion. And, as FOREX is not a centralized market, manipulation is front and center with the big banks being the know-it-all's with pending and current orders sitting right on their computer screens. The good news is the banks always counter what the retail traders do. Retail traders usually trade, as a collective, human emotion. Fear and greed. The banks use fear and greed to swing the retail trader to lose. So, cycles still come into play.

I have personally witnessed real-time trading of a 26 year old forex trader. He makes over $100k a month. He hand draws harmonic cycles. He doesn't use any fancy software, just his phone. He can even trade the news with scary precision.

My point is... he has studied and mastered the cycles in forex. And by combining that with the knowledge that the markets are manipulated, he can bias his direction.

Even when I tried to "learn" what he does, by personal mentorship, I understand it, but I still cannot "do" it. It requires many hours of study. He told me he studied the charts a minimum of 10,000 before he actually understood how the market moved.

So, anyone can be a "walking ATM machine," when you master the cycles.

Carl
  • #752
  • Edited Nov 10, 2019 9:36am Nov 9, 2019 4:18pm | Edited Nov 10, 2019 9:36am
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} Fundiwambao, I completely agree with all markets are manipulated in some form or fashion. And, as FOREX is not a centralized market, manipulation is front and center with the big banks being the know-it-all's with pending and current orders sitting right on their computer screens. The good news is the banks always counter what the retail traders do. Retail traders usually trade, as a collective, human emotion. Fear and greed. The banks use fear and greed to swing the retail trader to lose. So, cycles still come into play. I have personally...
That was a really good post Carl, and Its appreciated. Peter has certainly lit a fire under me to experiment, try new ways of looking at the market, and above all else get off my butt and Do Something!! I also have great appreciation for Davit and the Pivot Trading Room which inspires me to trade strong on the daily basis, but I have a feeling there is really something offered by Gann, and his modern day counterparts Jenkins and Beck that can take my trading to a whole new level, not only income, but confidence of how the markets really work where mathematics enter the picture, and I am dedicated to break some of the barriers that seem to hold me back.

Anyway, back to trading psychology for a moment. I have a friend in FF whom I have known for many years and his name is Digger. He trades a completely different style using indicators, sup/res better than anyone I know and I have a statement in my files where he made over $100,000.00 in one DAY and it was not a demo account. But really, it is no different than making 1000.00 in one day, you just need to add a few zeros, the method stays the same. I know how he did it, but I do not have the courage to trade the sizes he traded, nor do I have the same read on what he sees in his charts. But here is the point I remember the best, and he often uses this statement when he gets frustrated with newbe traders and he makes a great point when he says " If you want to learn how to trade Forex get off your ass and draw a damn line". How right he is, and that line can be very powerful...but it all starts by drawing a line someplace, at high, low, trend.....someplace!

For example...in the process of looking at Gann lines, time and space, ratios based on initial impulse waves from swing high/low I drew a ton of lines to see if I could make some sense of how they related to price or if they related to price at all....in the process I discovered Gann Fans do not work at all with mt4 because the minute you switch from a 1 hour to a 15 min chart the lines no longer line up so they become nebulous at best....but then I set the Fib fan to recommended levels by Jenkins, and low and behold you can switch from 1 hour to 1 minute and the line of support or resistance stays in place....anyway that is just one of 50 discoveries I am working on and I have an example below that is clear and precise (note the 45 percent angle on 2 of the trades) and how after the 45 failed running even through the 30, how the 30 became resistance to the upside...it was an easy decision for me to short this Friday entry.

So to my old friend Digger....."here is my damn line" lol
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  • #753
  • Edited 8:59pm Nov 9, 2019 4:50pm | Edited 8:59pm
Now add weekly pivots and extend your fib levels to the next swing low for a read on Fridays most logical decision making level...a no brainer really... and so all of this became clear just because I got off my butt and drew some lines....I can only imagine what is available as I learn the methods taught by Beck or Jenkins on larger time frames....I have a feeling it could be VERY good!!
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  • #754
  • Edited 9:00pm Nov 9, 2019 5:45pm | Edited 9:00pm
Next add your Cycle Lines drawn from high to first swing low and you start to see a pattern develop where cycles repeat themselves, and if that happens to be at support or resistance, you have something that is trade-able...ok maybe with tight stops when the cycle has completed without reversing, so at this point something is going to happen long or short, right? PS...all of this is available with mt4...a cycle is a cycle and that does not change by scaling....

Next, and Im not going post it...but if you use Jenkins ratios calculated by dividing an impulse wave low by its high to come up with a ratio, we now have a good idea where the next level will run into support or resistance, at least in the short term....

anyway im being long winded so this is my last post for this week...we shall see how all of this works out...all I know it has caught my attention..
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  • #755
  • Edited 9:02pm Nov 9, 2019 7:04pm | Edited 9:02pm
Changed my mind because this is so important......I mentioned Jenkins ratio in my last post....there is another and easy way to mark your expected support levels in this case....find an implulse wave based on normal trading conditions....make a measuring tool by using a trendline from high to low....then extend the line....is there any question about the accuracy of doing this....so just these conditions with mt4 can make one a much more accurate trader in your entries and exits....so what I am trying to say is with just a little pre trading preparation, drawing those "damn" lines can make u a much better trader overall
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  • #756
  • Nov 10, 2019 4:05am Nov 10, 2019 4:05am
Quoting Swede
Changed my mind because this is so important......I mentioned Jenkins ratio in my last post....there is another and easy way to mark your expected support levels in this case....find an implulse wave based on normal trading conditions....make a measuring tool by using a trendline from high to low....then extend the line....is there any question about the accuracy of doing this....so just these conditions with mt4 can make one a much more accurate trader in your entries and exits....so what I am trying to say is with just a little pre trading preparation,...
Swede, Now imagine what you will be like one year from now?......Unstoppable.
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #757
  • Nov 10, 2019 5:33am Nov 10, 2019 5:33am
Quoting Swede
Changed my mind because this is so important......I mentioned Jenkins ratio in my last post....there is another and easy way to mark your expected support levels in this case....find an implulse wave based on normal trading conditions....make a measuring tool by using a trendline from high to low....then extend the line....is there any question about the accuracy of doing this....so just these conditions with mt4 can make one a much more accurate trader in your entries and exits....so what I am trying to say is with just a little pre trading preparation,...
please share these indicator.
  • #758
  • Edited 6:25am Nov 10, 2019 6:09am | Edited 6:25am
Swede thanks for sharing your ideas on using the fib fan and measured moves in conjunction with cycle lines to determine swing points. I've been looking at Jenkins secret angles and the scaling problem is evident in mt4 which makes it difficult to get consistent accuracy. What you've found eliminates the scaling problem in mt4 so I'll be exploring this idea.

Ashwani

There are no indicators to share, everything is available in your mt4 platform, go back and read all Swede's posts.
  • #759
  • Nov 10, 2019 6:13am Nov 10, 2019 6:13am
Quoting mojazz
Swede thanks for sharing your ideas on using the gann fan and measured moves in conjunction with cycle lines to determine swing points. I've been looking at Jenkins secret angles and the scaling problem is evident in mt4 which makes it difficult to get consistent accuracy. What you've found eliminates the scaling problem in mt4 so I'll be exploring this idea. Ashwani There are no indicators to share, everything is available in your mt4 platform, go back and read all Swede's posts.
hi i want this weekly indicator which on swede's post
  • #760
  • Nov 10, 2019 10:55am Nov 10, 2019 10:55am
Hello Swede

I understood how you proceed, but I have a problem with fibofan.
I can't get the angles, like you.
do you use the standard fibofan from mt4, if yes,
what settings do you have for fibo fan?

below, the position of my angles by positioning my fibofan, like you
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