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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #53,641
  • Oct 28, 2019 8:36am Oct 28, 2019 8:36am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} I have just completed shorts from 1507 to 1496. Now waiting for clarity from FOMC to place positions.
It's looking to cut rates further.. forecasted data was changed yesterday
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #53,642
  • Edited 9:18am Oct 28, 2019 8:50am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting farukh
{quote} It's looking to cut rates further.. forecasted data was changed yesterday
Thats the reason I was not comfortable with the shorts at least this year. there are lots of things going on which is clearly a worry for FOMC. High chances they will turn dovish which will overshadow the US CHINA trade deal optimism.
  • #53,643
  • Oct 28, 2019 9:29am Oct 28, 2019 9:29am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} Thats the reason I was not comfortable with the shorts at least this year. there are lots of things going on which is clearly a worry for FOMC. High chances they will turn dovish which will overshadow the US CHINA trade deal optimism.
I just checked out that on every rate cut, gold fell.
I am not an economy expert, what could be the reason for that?
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #53,644
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:02pm Oct 28, 2019 12:02pm
shorted gold 1498, just covered at 1493.10
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,645
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:11pm Oct 28, 2019 12:11pm
Quoting goldcartel
It has the potential to fall to 1466 until November 1, 2019 https://www.tradingview.com/x/BIfH0rQs/

So far so good !
"Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." Bernard Baruch
  • #53,646
  • Oct 28, 2019 2:42pm Oct 28, 2019 2:42pm
Heh, seems we are back to the "base"... STALL... GOLD does not like STALL at all... I am very curious about what happens till the end of the week... We could receive some tripple party... FED doing it's thing, ECB echoes... and then BREXIT situation can spice it up I think either can be good for GOLD... The more uncertainty, the better... BTW I believe USD is too low at right this exact moment, would want for eurusd for example to at least touch 1.1000 just once more, before I would be confident to bet on the further analysis... Right now we are in a GRIDLOCK/STALL... I believe that is the primary reason of deflating GOLD... But, as I have said before... anything below 1500 seems like a no-brainer buy for me.. at least for now...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #53,647
  • Oct 28, 2019 6:25pm Oct 28, 2019 6:25pm
All things considered, gold is doing remarkably well right now. Equities just hit new all time highs so the market is factoring in less risk, but gold is still near 1,500. That's fantastic, under these circumstances I'm surprised it hasn't gone to 1,400. It goes to show gold has a lot of underlying strength and once the risk sentiment picks up it should take off.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #53,648
  • Oct 28, 2019 11:06pm Oct 28, 2019 11:06pm
29/10/2019


Morning Traders,

As things stand, price got a rejection off of that right hand shoulder from the HnS pattern we identified and traded off Yesterday , the target has been reached and price has been consolidating after it found support from one of our key downside levels for Monday. The daily close above 1490 keeps us within the pre breakout range with key targets to the top and bottom being around 1495 and 1485 respectively. H4 is yet to flip bearish and as such looking for a brief rally towards the 95 handle before pushing lower as the H4 is also mapping out another HnS pattern,(we need to be patient with these as the Larger time frame setups tend to take longer to play out.....projected target for this pattern lies around 1463.90,one of our key weekly downside levels, but both H4 and H1 would need to get into bearish zone before said setup is confirmed and also a H4 close below the 1485 handle, an H4 Close back above 1495 will retest the upside levels and the possible head structure in play.....


H1: Bearish: Sell Zone: 1494 - 1496.81.
H4: Bullish to Neutral: 1496.50 - 1498.10.
D: Flat with Bearish Bias


Intra day levels of Interest:
Upside
1515.08
1508.11
1501.84
1498.42
1495.56

Downside
1489.95
1485.66
1474.27
1478.72
1467.37


Edit: (i) Upper band of the Zone.
(ii) Lower Band of the Zone.

Trade Safe
Green Pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH4Zones_LI.jpg Size: 749 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #53,649
  • Oct 29, 2019 1:45am Oct 29, 2019 1:45am
Quoting Ef5
All things considered, gold is doing remarkably well right now. Equities just hit new all time highs so the market is factoring in less risk, but gold is still near 1,500. That's fantastic, under these circumstances I'm surprised it hasn't gone to 1,400. It goes to show gold has a lot of underlying strength and once the risk sentiment picks up it should take off.
This is a tremendous way to think. To take note of fundamentals and be able to say, hang on, what gives? Then consult ya charts and wait.

That is how I use fundys - usually as a contrarian signal. Every dog and his cab/taxi driver knows that there is currently an abundance of natural gas storage, for example, so it is logical to be short. Markets follow their own logic. This is not a new concept of which I speak.
  • #53,650
  • Oct 29, 2019 7:05am Oct 29, 2019 7:05am
if this hourly inside bar breaks to the downside it doens't look to great for bulls ...
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,651
  • Oct 29, 2019 8:48am Oct 29, 2019 8:48am
massive downside if bulls lose this H4 TL now.v
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,652
  • Oct 29, 2019 8:49am Oct 29, 2019 8:49am
plan was posted @ TV over the weekend.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...OUD-1440-1460/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...ARS-1440-1460/
  • #53,653
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:39am Oct 29, 2019 10:39am
too early to short imho. I went long at 1488.35
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,654
  • Oct 29, 2019 11:19am Oct 29, 2019 11:19am
Quoting notyetthere
too early to short imho. I went long at 1488.35
Reversed to short at 1489.80
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,655
  • Oct 29, 2019 2:16pm Oct 29, 2019 2:16pm
Man, not a good times to trade gold, at least in the UP, which seems to be my favourite direction for gold... Prepare your bets, if you have the brass b... I would rather be out the market for tomorrow, just not to be swing-spiked out However, when the party will be over, I think GOLD will see his glory So, still optimistic for up, specially under 1500 seems like a no-brainer... but out of precautions... I am completely out of all markets for the rest of the week... Yeah, some might be disappointed like OMG.. how u not trading man... but I tell you... trading is at least as much more about PRESERVING the gains.. as well as getting new ones At least in my book... So I might not win big tomorrow, but I might save big loses Although, if I would have to be in trade, I would be on the BUY side... but would sure de-leverage as much as possible, jut to have enough "room" for EPIC spikes tomorrow Gonna be one hell of a party, that is for sure
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #53,656
  • Oct 29, 2019 5:12pm Oct 29, 2019 5:12pm
Quoting notyetthere
{quote} Reversed to short at 1489.80
seeing more bearishness: 15M bearish engulfer and hourly symetrical pattern broke to the downside. First target: 1483.5 USD. THe short term trend is down so I am not getting all this bullish talk here. That might al change after the fed but I'll be out when that happens.
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,657
  • Oct 29, 2019 5:16pm Oct 29, 2019 5:16pm
I am seeing an immediate move UP as of this morning, Oct. 30 am (CET), with slight correction on Nov. 1 pm and maybe Nov. 4. After that the UP-move should continue also next week (Nov. 5 - 8).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,658
  • Oct 29, 2019 5:44pm Oct 29, 2019 5:44pm
Quoting MzansiObi
29/10/2019 Morning Traders, As things stand, price got a rejection off of that right hand shoulder from the HnS pattern we identified and traded off Yesterday , the target has been reached and price has been consolidating after it found support from one of our key downside levels for Monday. The daily close above 1490 keeps us within the pre breakout range with key targets to the top and bottom being around 1495 and 1485 respectively. H4 is yet to flip bearish and as such looking for a brief rally towards the 95 handle before pushing lower as the...
30/10/19


As things stand, price has moved towards our key levels following rallies into our sell zones on the H1 chart, the identified range of 1495 and 1485 gave us a couple of setups and allowed us to recycle the levels on a couple of occasions and bag some pips, not only did price get into our sell zones, but this was further validated by the HnS pattern off the H4 chart that we shorted near the right hand shoulder level Near our Current range High, 1495. Some bullish divergence near the 1485 medium term range floor handle managed to push prices higher and ensure a daily close above the 85 handle, as such will wait and see if it holds or breaks down further as the H1 sell zone has also drifted lower and the H4 has also confirmed the bearish crossover.

H1: Bearish and Sell Zone:1489.43 - 1491.24
H4: Bearish and Sell Zone:1494.22 - 1492.90
D1: Bearish and Sell Zone:1494.45 - 1492.74


Intra day levels
Upside
1506.1
1499.81
1494.33
1493.7
1490.55
1489.24

Downside
1484.43
1481.57
1477.55
1471.44
1470.50



As such outlook will be to have/wait for prices to revisit the Sell Zones to look to continue shorting

H1: (i) Previous days sell setups after retesting H1 Sell ZOnes
(ii) Current H1 Sell Zone
(iii) Bullish RSI divergence
H4: (i) Current Sell Zone as depicted with associated HnS SHoulder level from previous day

Posted images over here
https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...0#post12588760

Green Pips
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #53,659
  • Oct 29, 2019 6:07pm Oct 29, 2019 6:07pm
Quoting rosspetX
I am seeing an immediate move UP as of this morning, Oct. 30 am (CET), with slight correction on Nov. 1 pm and maybe Nov. 4. After that the UP-move should continue also next week (Nov. 5 - 8). {image}
Gold prices are probably going to be driven by high impact calendar data for the remainder of the week. Wednesday and Friday are going to bring some very heavy volatility in gold and across asset classes.

I posted a preview of Advance GDP: Advance GDP q/q - October Preview

I hope to get some other previews up prior to the other events. The FOMC Statement and Press Conference are going to be big. I'd like to get a little better understanding of where traders stand on a fed rate cut accompanied with a hawkish statement, then followed by Powell signaling a pause. As of right now, I see that as the most likely scenario.

The probability is almost at 100% that the fed cuts by 25 basis points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #53,660
  • Oct 29, 2019 6:15pm Oct 29, 2019 6:15pm
2H chart is giving me another sell signal so did a slight (minor) add to my short.
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
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