The Swamp | Page 2296 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #45,901
  • Oct 28, 2019 10:34am Oct 28, 2019 10:34am
Shorted Swissy & holding for now. Wonder how low this can go this week?
Attached Image
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #45,902
  • Oct 28, 2019 11:47am Oct 28, 2019 11:47am
lc closed higher than Friday. I dont know if it will make 1126, but it looks to test today's high. This being a week full of big news lots can happen. The week also closed lc lower. That increases odds of last weeks lows being tested this week. Friday closed bearish to me, but above the week support now at 1070. If ny closes below 1090 today, 1070 looks to be tested.

1126 or 1029 coming.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,903
  • Oct 28, 2019 11:50am Oct 28, 2019 11:50am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I fell sleep.. woke up to see Eu and swissy prices are almost at the same spots ...nothing to do today...
I know, you snored in my ear and drooled on the pillow.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,904
  • Edited 12:12pm Oct 28, 2019 12:01pm | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I know, you snored in my ear and drooled on the pillow.
lol... I think you are talking about you.......still nothing to trade here...but reading...

The Top Ten Trades of All Time

Posted By: Steve Burns on: August 31, 2013


Here is the list of the who, what, when, where, and how of the greatest trades in the financial markets were made.
While the risk management of executing many of these trades is not what many traders would want, we can see many of these as trend trades and the dangers of fighting the trends becomes apparent along with the profits that can be made by going with the flow with no price target. These trades were not all entered into at one time, most of them were built slowly and grew by adding as profits accrued. Most were also watched closely with and eye on the exit button when a true reversal began against these traders. Livermore made many probing shorts that he had to stop out of as the 1929 bull market reversed form breaking down and continued upwards after appearing to roll over. Some of these traders could have been ruined with a little blind sided government intervention that modern day traders are faced with now. But you can not argue with the profits and many of these traders have very long proven records year after year, these were not random trades and they did not just get lucky, most of these were the great play that they landed after decades of research, study, and a life time of waiting for the really fat high probability pitch over the plate that made them go big.
1. John Paulson’s bet against sub-prime mortgages made his hedge fund a cool $15 billion in 2007, that is billion with a ‘B’. he is only one of a very exclusive club that was able to make this call and win with it. Most went short too early and lost money and were stopped out. That most likely was the call of a lifetime that most everyone else was blind to even deep into the crises.
2. Jesse Livermore’s call on the Crash of 1929, Jesse Livermore did not need any computer models, technical indicators, or derivatives to make $100 million dollars ($1.2 billion in today’s dollars) for his own personal account during a time when everyone was bullish and then almost everyone lost their shirts. It was an amazing day when Jesse came home and his wife thought they were ruined and instead he had the second best trading day of anyone in history.
3. John Templeton invested heavily into Japan during the 1960s, when Japan was beginning its three-decade long economic miracle, Templeton was one of the country’s first outside investors. At one point, he boldly put more than 60 percent of his fund in Japanese assets.
From its founding in 1954, his Templeton Growth Fund grew at an astonishing rate of nearly 16 per cent a year until Templeton’s retirement in 1992, making it the top performing growth fund in the second half of the 20th century.
A $100,000 stake invested in 1954, with distributions reinvested, would have grown to $55 million by 1999.
4. George Soros’ breaking of the bank of England by shorting 10 billion worth of pound sterling and forcing the U.K. to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)(September 16, 1992). Soros made $1 billion in the process, which was an unimaginable sum back then.
5. Paul Tudor Jones’ shorting of Black Monday. Paul Tudor Jones correctly predicted on his documentary in 1986 based on chart patterns that the market was on the path to a crash of epic proportions. He profited handsomely from the Black Monday crash in the fall of 1987, the largest single-day U.S. stock market decline (by percentage) ever. Jones reportedly tripled his money by shorting futures, making as much as $100 million on that trade as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22 percent. Another amazing trade to walk away from with a fortune when so many others were ruined in the aftermath. He played it to perfection.
6. Andrew Hall Back in 2003, when oil was trading at $30 barrel and the economy had just recovered from the dot-com crash, Andrew Hall wagered that prices would top $100 per barrel within five years. When oil prices blew past $100 five years later in 2008, Hall’s employer Citigroup made a bundle and Hall took home $100 million as a part of his compensation for this and other successful trades. He predicted the target price for the trade and the time frame and then structured futures contracts to profit greatly from the move to $100 or they would expire worthless. He did what is suppose to be impossible, predict a price and execute a trade perfectly far in advance for maximum profit.
7. David Tepper’s bought severely depressed shares of big banks early in 2009, Bank of America quadrupled in value and Citigroup tripled in value from their bottoms earlier in the year. That was good enough to earn Tepper’s hedge fund $7 billion. His personal cut was $4 billion. His bet was that they would be bailed out and not nationalized. He was correct.
8. Jim Chanos’ prescient shorts correctly predicted, and profited enormously, from the demise of Enron. Other examples of his successful shorts include Baldwin-United, Tyco International (NYSE: TYC), Worldcom and recently homebuilders like KB Home (NYSE: KBH)
9. Jim Rogers’ spotted the secular bull market for commodities way back in the 1990s. In 1996, he created the Rogers International Commodity Index. Subsequently, he worked on ways to make that index invest-able. Since 1998, the index has returned 290 percent through the end of 2010. This compares to the 10 percent return of the S&P 500 Index during the same period.
10. Louis Bacon’s made a killing in 1990 by anticipating that Saddam Hussein would invade Kuwait. Bacon went long on oil, short on stocks, and helped his new hedge fund return 86 percent that year. In the following year, he also correctly bet that the U.S. would quickly defeat Iraq and the oil market would recover.
We must all be ready for that once in a lifetime trade. Keep our eyes open. Trade with option contracts or futures contracts to manage risk carefully while leveraging for a possible up side in profits. Letting the right winner run can change a traders life. Do not set a target but instead let the price take us out of the trade. One day we might make that epic trade, the short that falls to $0, the stock that goes up ten times the buy price. Being short the next big stock market crash Do you know how to manage such a trade given the opportunity? If not, it is time to do the homework
  • #45,905
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:20pm Oct 28, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote}4. George Soros’ breaking of the bank of England by shorting 10 billion worth of pound sterling and forcing the U.K. to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)(September 16, 1992). Soros made $1 billion in the process, which was an unimaginable sum back then.
I'm not sure that Soros was THE reason the UK left the ERM - would love to read about it if I'm wrong though.
Focus.
  • #45,906
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:25pm Oct 28, 2019 12:25pm
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} I'm not sure that Soros was THE reason the UK left the ERM - would love to read about it if I'm wrong though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

https://www.thebalance.com/black-wed...ritain-1978944
The Chonchy
  • #45,907
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:30pm Oct 28, 2019 12:30pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
Yeh I know the Black Wednesday story, I'm just unsure that it was Soros' 'fault', as the article suggests.
Focus.
  • #45,908
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:36pm Oct 28, 2019 12:36pm
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} Yeh I know the Black Wednesday story, I'm just unsure that it was Soros' 'fault', as the article suggests.
The Chonchy
  • #45,909
  • Oct 28, 2019 12:42pm Oct 28, 2019 12:42pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote}
Worth a watch, even now.

Inserted Video
Focus.
  • #45,910
  • Edited 4:47pm Oct 28, 2019 1:34pm | Edited 4:47pm
As the market, is quieeeeet. I give you music, with portuguese guitar, and the body and soul of fado.
Inserted Video
  • #45,911
  • Oct 28, 2019 2:03pm Oct 28, 2019 2:03pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} lol... I think you are talking about you.......still nothing to trade here...but reading... The Top Ten Trades of All Time Posted By: Steve Burns on: August 31, 2013 Here is the list of the who, what, when, where, and how of the greatest trades in the financial markets were made. While the risk management of executing many of these trades is not what many traders would want, we can see many of these as trend trades and the dangers of fighting the trends becomes apparent along with the...
[/b]

I hope for this one day.
  • #45,912
  • Oct 28, 2019 2:29pm Oct 28, 2019 2:29pm
We talked about wins...how about losses....here is this.... good to read...

Twelve of The Biggest Trading Losses in History
Posted By: Steve Burns on: January 19, 2013


If you are feeling down about your trading losses, or feeling sorry for Ackman’s current disaster trades long J.C. Penney and short Herbalife, then this article may put both of these losses into perspective. These losses show how crucial it is to have a price level that will indicate that you were wrong and will need to stop out at. There is no reason to ever take a huge loss to your trading capital. Position sizing, stop losses, and managing the risk of ruin is the first job of a trader, growing capital comes second.
“Two basic rules: (1) if you don’t bet, you can’t win. (2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” -Larry Hite
Here are 12 of the biggest trading losses of all time, heed the lessons of these tragedies and realize the traders on the other sides of these trades made a huge amount of money,
#12: German billionaire Adolf Merckle, one of the 100 richest people in the world, killed himself by jumping in front of a train—emotionally “broken” over a bad bet on Volkswagen in 2008.
Merckle’s business interests came out on the wrong side of 2008′s short squeeze of Volkswagen. Rival Porsche silently cornered the market on Volkswagen shares, and when they revealed the extent of their stake, the price of Volkswagen stock shot up to levels that made it briefly the world’s most valuable corporation. Many hedge funds who had bet against Volkswagen shares lost huge amounts of money, while Porsche made billions in profit.
Merckle, whose personal wealth was estimated at more than $9 billion reportedly lost a billion alone on the Volkswagen stock, which shocked his employees. The loss led to margin calls from other creditors and threatened to unravel his entire private business empire. Full Article
#11: Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt, the sons of Texas oil billionaire Haroldson Lafayette Hunt, Jr., had for some time been attempting to corner the market in silver.
The Hunt brothers had invested heavily in futures contracts through several brokers, including the brokerage firm Bache Halsey Stuart Shields, later Prudential-Bache Securities and Prudential Securities. When the price of silver dropped below their minimum margin requirement, they were issued a margin call for $100 million. The Hunts were unable to meet the margin call, and, with the brothers facing a potential $1.7 billion loss, the ensuing panic was felt in the financial markets in general, as well as commodities and futures. Many government officials feared that if the Hunts were unable to meet their debts, some large Wall Street brokerage firms and banks might collapse.
To save the situation, a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 billion line of credit to the brothers which allowed them to pay Bache which, in turn, survived the ordeal. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later launched an investigation into the Hunt brothers, who had failed to disclose that they in fact held a 6.5% stake in Bache. Full Article
#10: Under the leadership of CEO Heinz Schimmelbusch, German metals and engineering giant Metallgellschaft was on the brink of bankruptcy after losing $1.3 billion on speculative bets. The firm bet on an increase in oil prices in oil futures markets, but oil prices dropped instead. Full Article
#9: Robert Citron lost $1.7 billion for Orange County, California forcing it into Chapter 9 bankruptcy.In 1994, Citron was Treasurer-Tax Collector for Orange County, California. As treasurer, Citron used a series of highly-leveraged deals that included repurchase agreements and floating rate notes. Full Article
#8: Although much success within the financial markets arises from immediate-short term turbulence, and the ability of fund managers to identify informational asymmetries, factors giving rise to the downfall of the fund were established prior to the 1997 East Asian financial crisis. In May and June 1998 returns from the fund were -6.42% and -10.14% respectively, reducing LTCM’s capital by $461 million. This was further aggravated by the exit of Salomon Brothers from the arbitrage business in July 1998. Such losses were accentuated through the Russian financial crises in August and September 1998, when the Russian Government defaulted on their government bonds. Panicked investors sold Japanese and European bonds to buy U.S. treasury bonds. The profits that were supposed to occur as the value of these bonds converged became huge losses as the value of the bonds diverged. By the end of August, the fund had lost $1.85 billion in capital.
As a result of these losses, LTCM had to liquidate a number of its positions at a highly unfavorable moment and suffer further losses. A good illustration of the consequences of these forced liquidations is given by Lowenstein (2000). He reports that LTCM established an arbitrage position in the dual-listed company (or “DLC”) Royal Dutch Shell in the summer of 1997, when Royal Dutch traded at an 8-10% premium relative to Shell. In total $2.3 billion was invested, half of which was “long” in Shell and the other half was “short” in Royal Dutch. LTCM was essentially betting that the share prices of Royal Dutch and Shell would converge. This might have happened in the long run, but due to its losses on other positions, LTCM had to unwind its position in Royal Dutch Shell. Lowenstein reports that the premium of Royal Dutch had increased to about 22%, which implies that LTCM incurred a large loss on this arbitrage strategy. LTCM lost $286 million in equity pairs trading and more than half of this loss is accounted for by the Royal Dutch Shell trade.
The company, which was providing annual returns of almost 40% up to this point, experienced a flight-to-liquidity. In the first three weeks of September, LTCM’s equity tumbled from $2.3 billion at the start of the month to just $400 million by September 25. With liabilities still over $100 billion, this translated to an effective leverage ratio of more than 250-to-1. Full Article
#7: A rogue trader lost UBS $2.3 billion on unauthorized trades in the bank’s London office leading to the resignation of the CEO. September 2011, UBS revealed an unexpected $2.3 billion loss believed to be caused by a lone rogue trader in the bank’s London office. Kweku Adoboli, 31, who worked on UBS’s Delta One desk, was identified as the alleged rogue trader. Full Article
#6: In 2008, a Brazilian pulp maker lost $2.5 billion on currency bets. At the time, Aracruz was the world’s biggest producer of bleached eucalyptus-pulp. In 2008, the firm lost big time on Forex trades when it bet that Brazil’s real would appreciate in an effort to hedge against a weaker dollar. The Brazil’s real ended up tanking. Full Article
#5: In 1996, Sumitomo’s chief trader attempted to corner the copper market and lost $2.6 billion. He went to prison. Yasuo Hamakana, who was once nick-named “Mr. Five Percent” and ”Mr. Copper” because of his aggressive trading style in the copper market, caused Sumitomo to lose $2.6 billion from his unauthorized copper trades on the London Metal Exchange. Full Article
#4: Bank officials claim that throughout 2007, Jerome Kerviel had been trading profitably in anticipation of falling market prices; however, they have accused him of exceeding his authority to engage in unauthorized trades totaling as much as €49.9 billion, a figure far higher than the bank’s total market capitalization. Bank officials claim that Kerviel tried to conceal the activity by creating losing trades intentionally so as to offset his early gains. According to the BBC, Kerviel generated €1.4 billion in hidden profits by the end of 2007. His employers say they uncovered unauthorized trading traced to Kerviel on January 19, 2008. The bank then closed out these positions over three days of trading beginning January 21, 2008, a period in which the market was experiencing a large drop in equity indices, and losses attributed are estimated at €4.9 billion. Full Article
#3: In April 2005, Brian Hunter was, reportedly, offered a $1 million bonus to join SAC Capital Partners. Nicholas Maounis, founder of Amaranth Advisors, refused to let Hunter go. Maounis named Hunter co-head of the firm’s energy desk and gave him control of his own trades. In 2006 his analysis led him to believe that 2006–07 winter’s gas prices will rise relative to the summer and fall – accordingly Hunter went long on the winter delivery contracts, simultaneously shorting the near (summer/fall) contracts. When the market took a sharp turn against this view, the fund was hard pressed for margin money to maintain the positions. Once the margin requirements crossed USD 3 billion, around September 2006, the fund offloaded some of these positions, ultimately selling them entirely to JP Morgan and Citadel for USD 2.5 billion.The fund ultimately took a $6.6-billion loss and had to be dissolved entirely. Full Article
#2: Bruno Michel Iksil, nicknamed the London Whale (for his risky trades) and Voldemort (for his supposed power on Wall Street)is a trader who worked for the London office of JPMorgan Chase who is held responsible for losses up to $9 billion. Reportedly he began working for JPMorgan in 2005 and lives in Paris, commuting to London. It is thought that Iksil, of whom it is said guards his privacy, is married with four children. Full Article
#1: In 2007, Morgan Stanley lost $9 billion on disastrous subprime mortgage bets, and heads were rolling. Hubler, now a former mortgage trader at Morgan Stanley featured in Michael Lewis’ “The Big Short,” lost the bank $9 billion on bets in the subprime housing market
  • #45,913
  • Oct 28, 2019 4:42pm Oct 28, 2019 4:42pm
the close was above 1090, I have to think 1126 may get a visit. 1126 or 1029. maybe 1126, then 1029
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,914
  • Oct 28, 2019 5:29pm Oct 28, 2019 5:29pm
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} Worth a watch, even now. https://youtu.be/K_oET45GzMI
The Chonchy
  • #45,915
  • Oct 28, 2019 7:13pm Oct 28, 2019 7:13pm
1h uptrend stop @ 1.1084
Resistance zone @1.1103-1107

Technically we don't have a higher high yet. And I don't think we have a clear higher low yet.
But we did close significantly higher than Friday.
This means bulls and bears still have to fight it out with no clear winner.

Plan for today:
Buy near 1.1084
Sell around resistance zone.

Buy if price closes convincingly above resistance zone.
Sell if 1h stop is broken.
  • #45,916
  • Oct 28, 2019 7:37pm Oct 28, 2019 7:37pm
Quoting thelws
1h uptrend stop @ 1.1084 Resistance zone @1.1103-1107 Technically we don't have a higher high yet. And I don't think we have a clear higher low yet. But we did close significantly higher than Friday. This means bulls and bears still have to fight it out with no clear winner. Plan for today: Buy near 1.1084 Sell around resistance zone. Buy if price closes convincingly above resistance zone. Sell if 1h stop is broken.
Tomorrow most likely to be the same .. a day before FMOC...
  • #45,917
  • Oct 28, 2019 7:38pm Oct 28, 2019 7:38pm
10/29/2019 EU levels.. next to print 1104 or 1094....

RU R3 ----------1.1128
FP R3 ----------1.1125
RU R2 ----------1.1115
FP R2 ----------1.1113
WP PP ----------1.1111
FP R1 ----------1.1106
RU R1 ----------1.1106
MP R2 ----------1.1104
FP PP ----------1.1094
RU S1 ----------1.1089
FP S1 ----------1.1082
RU S2 ----------1.1081
FP S2 ----------1.1075
WP S1 ----------1.1070
RU S3 ----------1.1067
  • #45,918
  • Oct 28, 2019 7:45pm Oct 28, 2019 7:45pm
10/29/2019 Swissy levels...next to print 9952 or 9940

RU R3 ----------0.9976
FP R2 ----------0.9971
FP R1 ----------0.9964
RU R2 ----------0.9963
WP R1 ----------0.9957
RU R1 ----------0.9954
FP PP ----------0.9952
FP S1 ----------0.9940
RU S1 ----------0.9938
FP S2 ----------0.9933
RU S2 ----------0.9930
MP PP ----------0.9922
FP S3 ----------0.9921
RU S3 ----------0.9916
  • #45,919
  • Oct 28, 2019 8:33pm Oct 28, 2019 8:33pm
uj 109.10/109.60 may be a short. atm pa 108.984.

some month R 109.17, week 109.48, day 109.10. norm 109.59

swap sucks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,920
  • Edited 4:09am Oct 29, 2019 3:02am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting thelws
1h uptrend stop @ 1.1084 Resistance zone @1.1103-1107 Technically we don't have a higher high yet. And I don't think we have a clear higher low yet. But we did close significantly higher than Friday. This means bulls and bears still have to fight it out with no clear winner. Plan for today: Buy near 1.1084 Sell around resistance zone. Buy if price closes convincingly above resistance zone. Sell if 1h stop is broken.
1h stop holding on by 1 pip. Wait 1 more hour to see what happens.

edit: 1h back to downtrend. But don't feel like shorting at these levels.
159 traders viewing now