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The Swamp

  • #45,841
  • Oct 25, 2019 3:51pm Oct 25, 2019 3:51pm
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} Love your analysis Gator. Have a good weekend. {image}
NFP next week.. It could all go to hell.. I will post new week and day R number Sunday. We can see reactions.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,842
  • Oct 25, 2019 6:46pm Oct 25, 2019 6:46pm
COT report for the week ended on Oct 22:

Looks like we were not alone, the institutions caught on the wrong foot too last week by Johnson's Brexit news and more.
The institutions aggressively reduced their bearish Euro bets by 24,104 contracts or $3.3 billion when Euro broke day resistance ( downtrend stop) at 1.1060 on 10/16 to 1.1179 highest levels on 10/21 for the week.
The net short back to six weeks low. Now net short 51,050 contracts, worth $7.09 billion.
43% long exposure vs 57% short exposure, which 3% increased in longs and 3% decreased in shorts from the previous week
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  • #45,843
  • Oct 25, 2019 7:48pm Oct 25, 2019 7:48pm
Quoting Boulder
COT report for the week ended on Oct 22: Looks like we were not alone, the institutions caught on the wrong foot too last week by Johnson's Brexit news and more. The institutions aggressively reduced their bearish Euro bets by 24,104 contracts or $3.3 billion when Euro broke day resistance ( downtrend stop) at 1.1060 on 10/16 to 1.1179 highest levels on 10/21 for the week. The net short back to six weeks low. Now net short 51,050 contracts, worth $7.09 billion. 43% long exposure vs 57% short exposure,...
yet it dropped today.. Lets see the open.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,844
  • Oct 25, 2019 8:15pm Oct 25, 2019 8:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yet it dropped today.. Lets see the open.
Seeing last three days how price dropped, we wont be surprised to see the institutions put back their short bets in next COT report on 10/29/2019.
  • #45,845
  • Oct 26, 2019 3:09am Oct 26, 2019 3:09am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Seeing last three days how price dropped, we wont be surprised to see the institutions put back their short bets in next COT report on 10/29/2019.
institutions were reaching for the pebble.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,846
  • Oct 27, 2019 9:15am Oct 27, 2019 9:15am
Quoting gatorinla
Some possible R to be tested, channel is anticipated and untested at 1209. The 23.6 fib at 1207 on euro "all time" chart. The 200 day ema at 1203. Month average range at 1195. Month R2 at 1186. 1208 is a 61.8 retrace since 1.1411 and 1.0878 low. 1186/1218/1226 ish looks to have some R qualities. This area has a decent chance of being a top, or at least some rejection. {image}
so far, so good. lets see how it opens..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,847
  • Oct 27, 2019 9:51am Oct 27, 2019 9:51am
Baghdadi dead. Russia indicating, he may not be. DNA confirmation test came back pretty fast. I thought it took a minimal 24 hours. Oh well, good riddance. Another will fill the void.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,848
  • Oct 27, 2019 10:21am Oct 27, 2019 10:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} so far, so good. lets see how it opens..
Good trading week coming up..FOMC, NFP, ECB's new tiering system QE starts, the month end, we shall see a lot of trading opportunities...Good luck to every one,,,

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  • #45,849
  • Oct 27, 2019 11:07am Oct 27, 2019 11:07am
fresh start
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #45,850
  • Oct 27, 2019 11:15am Oct 27, 2019 11:15am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Good trading week coming up..FOMC, NFP, ECB's new tiering system QE starts, the month end, we shall see a lot of trading opportunities...Good luck to every one,,, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HL_...otKdI&index=14
I think I know where the R is. I just know NFP week pumps too. I need to respect the pump potential.
day will be 109x ish.. week 1075 ish. Month 1194. I can be more precise later. open may be below 4h..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,851
  • Oct 27, 2019 11:42am Oct 27, 2019 11:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think I know where the R is. I just know NFP week pumps too. I need to respect the pump potential. day will be 109x ish.. week 1075 ish. Month 1194. I can be more precise later. open may be below 4h..
the street is saying NFP is going to be a soft number due to GM strike
  • #45,852
  • Oct 27, 2019 12:05pm Oct 27, 2019 12:05pm
I want to learn Fibonacci and pivot point analysis. Gatorinla and Boulder please help.
  • #45,853
  • Oct 27, 2019 12:43pm Oct 27, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} the street is saying NFP is going to be a soft number due to GM strike
manufacturing was soft last month too. Retail got kicked in the balls. The usual health picked up because of the aging population.

Government hired census workers. Gov. will
lay most of them off next summer.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,854
  • Oct 27, 2019 1:02pm Oct 27, 2019 1:02pm
Quoting Joefrank
I want to learn Fibonacci and pivot point analysis. Gatorinla and Boulder please help.
You need to talk with someone who uses them. She and I dont use them as much as others. Find a expert on them. Youtube what u seek. You should be able to find anything you want to know there.
https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...point+analysis
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,855
  • Oct 27, 2019 1:12pm Oct 27, 2019 1:12pm
Quoting Joefrank
I want to learn Fibonacci and pivot point analysis. Gatorinla and Boulder please help.
here.. youtube.com/watch?v=gK4trUTiOOw or cheat here https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,856
  • Oct 27, 2019 1:15pm Oct 27, 2019 1:15pm
Saints and Lsu won.. Nap time..till open.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,857
  • Edited 2:19pm Oct 27, 2019 2:04pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If the new week number is 1080 for instance. That open could be below 1080. 1080 in the example may be strong R. Bears today may have won a number in the 1066 position by default. The new number will gap up, even if pa does not. already in the 1080. pa is already below the 1h and down. Pa only has the remainder 4h support to beat at 1053. It too can gap 1053 up slightly. It gapped 9 pips on 4h last week's 4h. The 4 could gap up, while pa gaps down a few pips. Sunday may open below the 4h support and the week support. The open may be next...
open didnt go below the week 1070 or the 4h 1054. The day now at 1090.8.R.. Support 1070 and 1054 to beat.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,858
  • Oct 27, 2019 2:10pm Oct 27, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} open didnt go below the week 1070 or the 4h 4054. The day now at 1090.8.R.. Support 1070 and 1054 to beat.
Oanda is a little lower 1068 and 1043
typo 1054 corrected
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,859
  • Oct 27, 2019 2:24pm Oct 27, 2019 2:24pm
1h soft R 1086, 30min 1081. day hard 1090.8. Week soft support 1070, hard 4h 1059..4h soft 1053.. need a 4h close below 1053 for bears to run. 1028 ish may bounce pa some. For reloaders, 1028 may be a tp point. adr 1025
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,860
  • Oct 27, 2019 2:34pm Oct 27, 2019 2:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
1h soft R 1086, 30min 1081. day hard 1090.8. Week soft support 1070, hard 4h 1059..4h soft 1053.. need a 4h close below 1053 for bears to run. 1028 ish may bounce pa some.
Gator..yesterday indeed had time changes in Euro etc.. make sure to adjust your LC accordingly...
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