Nat Gas anyone? | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How to avoid stopp loss...anyone doing that? 52 replies

Attachments: Nat Gas anyone?
Exit Attachments

Nat Gas anyone?

  • #101
  • Oct 25, 2019 10:29am Oct 25, 2019 10:29am
Quoting Ll1979
Interesting read: https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...actors-support
I found this article extremely informative thank you! I also liked this graph depicting currently supply levels as they relate to the 5 year average.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 411 KB

I can see now why price is ranging. I can also see now why Events Trader is looking for prices to fall. The current supply is right inline with where one would think it "should be" and this is keeping price capped.

So it appear that only a really cold winter will cause prices to rise. Hmm! I hate to wish for that! That would be like watching for water supplies to dip during fire season. I may need to reconsider my position
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #102
  • Oct 25, 2019 11:55am Oct 25, 2019 11:55am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I found this article extremely informative thank you! I also liked this graph depicting currently supply levels as they relate to the 5 year average. {image} I can see now why price is ranging. I can also see now why Events Trader is looking for prices to fall. The current supply is right inline with where one would think it "should be" and this is keeping price capped. So it appear that only a really cold winter will cause prices to rise. Hmm! I hate to wish for that! That would be like watching for water supplies to dip...
An old post explaining the rally of 2018 https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...6#post12551616

Natural Gas is just supply and demand so just be alert on weekly inventory levels (https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-1) and weather conditions. Below a Natural Gas dashboard which might help you.

http://www.jpcapitalmarkets.com/dash...as-inventories
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #103
  • Edited 2:57pm Oct 26, 2019 2:16pm | Edited 2:57pm
This fundamental stuff is all very well but it makes my head hurt. Even more than Elliott waves, Gann and moon cycles.

Why a five year average when there is 10 years available? Ought not the average be relative to some metric? Indeed, why is there any fluctuation from what is required/anticipated? Is Exxon or whoever playing games?

I notice that shale extraction has increased significantly the last decade. This adds to supply. But what if it is more costly than traditional methods? Are they prepared to sell at less than cost? Might not release from storage if that is the situation - I don't know the NG market in the US. If I had a billion cubic feet stored out the back in me shed, buggered if I am gunna sell it for less than what it cost. Does that make sense?

In Australia, if a bitter winter is forecast full capacity is stored. If a mild winter, less. Cos storage costs money.

On the flow side, we also have transmission pipes all over the place so that it can be pumped from another production area, although limited. Probably same in US with pipes everywhere across states. Very expensive to do so. Must balance against cost of storage. If transmission is becoming better, like it has been in Oz the last decade or two (since we actually did once have no NG in Melbourne for a few weeks in winter), storage becomes less relevant.

I shan't touch the demand side, although I have mentioned forecasts - medium/long term can be done. Geez, the "science is settled" dudes reckon they can do it 20 or 100 years out, so?
  • #104
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:19pm Oct 27, 2019 7:19pm
Gap higher at the open of the week, with buying dominant just prior to the Asian open. Currently price is above the range, so I imagine the buying it mostly buy stops on short positions triggering. Price is now approaching an area where heavy selling occurred in Sept.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 48 KB
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #105
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:53pm Oct 27, 2019 7:53pm
Natural Gas is looking strong. That was a pretty nice gap at the open and it's continued higher since. Winter?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-0039 10-27-2019 8.52.39 PM.png Size: 22 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #106
  • Oct 27, 2019 7:56pm Oct 27, 2019 7:56pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Natural Gas is looking strong. That was a pretty nice gap at the open and it's continued higher since. Winter?
I can't tell if its cold weather or the news out of Syria that Al-Baghdadi took himself out with a suicide vest. I haven't seen any other market reaction to this news...so I hesitate to think that's what it was.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #107
  • Oct 27, 2019 11:08pm Oct 27, 2019 11:08pm
Gaps are interesting depending on where they are. Anecdotally, I have observed - along with many others - that gaps, or total air space, are often filled - so hang around.

Bit like, oh, a bit of exuberance there (maybe in a thin market). Bears see it as an unexpected opportunity to get in some fresh positions at a good price when the market opens proper etc. Which is a bit the opposite of, but not necessarily inconsistent with, Don's take on shorts (and there are plenty, according to the COT data) being stopped out in the meantime.

Just when I was getting a bit despondent about being bullish.
  • #108
  • Oct 28, 2019 9:07am Oct 28, 2019 9:07am
Quoting LloydOz
Gaps are interesting depending on where they are. Anecdotally, I have observed - along with many others - that gaps, or total air space, are often filled - so hang around. Bit like, oh, a bit of exuberance there (maybe in a thin market)....
I have made the same observations. I have spoken with traders who use opening gaps as contrarian signals as they believe the market will fill those gaps.

I liken them to "vacuum" areas. Nature (and the markets) abhor a vacuum and the tendency is to fill the gap. So far today...that hasn't yet happened. At the London Open, price did try but then was supported by a good round of buying. I am now looking to see where the selling is going to come in. Again I suspect 2.750 but that is still a long way away.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 48 KB
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #109
  • Oct 28, 2019 3:17pm Oct 28, 2019 3:17pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I have made the same observations. I have spoken with traders who use opening gaps as contrarian signals as they believe the market will fill those gaps. I liken them to "vacuum" areas. Nature (and the markets) abhor a vacuum and the tendency is to fill the gap. So far today...that hasn't yet happened. At the London Open, price did try but then was supported by a good round of buying. I am now looking to see where the selling is going to come in. Again I suspect 2.750 but that is still a long way away. {image}
How much do you think this "STALL" in other markets have affect on the NGAS? For example, some say... the pull-back (in September) was due to FED news ahead... Do you have some estimate on how much of an effect this has, this time? https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...-of-fed-600925
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #110
  • Oct 29, 2019 8:17am Oct 29, 2019 8:17am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} How much do you think this "STALL" in other markets have affect on the NGAS? For example, some say... the pull-back (in September) was due to FED news ahead... Do you have some estimate on how much of an effect this has, this time? https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...-of-fed-600925
I'm really not sure it will affect them at all. I am beginning to realize that energy prices especially in Nat Gas are unique. Not like oil which is another way of pricing the US Dollar. I'm thinking it is more of a "true" market in that its driving force is more true supply/demand.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #111
  • Oct 29, 2019 9:01am Oct 29, 2019 9:01am
Buying is bringing price higher and stopping out short positions one by one. As expected, sellers are taking a stand right were the sellers were able to gain dominance the last move this high. I have set stops now so that the position is protected against loss. Current profit on the aggregate position is approximately 300 pts. Take profit is just above this point at 2.8
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 50 KB
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #112
  • Oct 29, 2019 9:18am Oct 29, 2019 9:18am
Quoting DonPato
Buying is bringing price higher and stopping out short positions one by one. As expected, sellers are taking a stand right were the sellers were able to gain dominance the last move this high. I have set stops now so that the position is protected against loss. Current profit on the aggregate position is approximately 300 pts. Take profit is just above this point at 2.8 {image}
Yeah agreed, had actually thought it would give an opportunity to go long with a dip today but didnt manage to get that Dip, instead now, im seeing price show this picture, which coincides with your observation too at the moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XNGUSDDaily_LI.jpg Size: 754 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #113
  • Oct 29, 2019 9:46am Oct 29, 2019 9:46am
Quoting MzansiObi
Yeah agreed, had actually thought it would give an opportunity to go long with a dip today but didnt manage to get that Dip, instead now, im seeing price show this picture, which coincides with your observation too at the moment
I'm curious, are you expecting at least a stall around your "yellow" moving average? I assume that's a 50 period (day) MA. It also looks to me like your stochastic indicator had a very nice divergence signal right about where I entered as well. Of course I'm not sure if that's how you trade but it seems (now in retrospect) like it would've worked out nicely so far.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #114
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:13am Oct 29, 2019 10:13am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I'm curious, are you expecting at least a stall around your "yellow" moving average? I assume that's a 50 period (day) MA. It also looks to me like your stochastic indicator had a very nice divergence signal right about where I entered as well. Of course I'm not sure if that's how you trade but it seems (now in retrospect) like it would've worked out nicely so far.
100% thats what im expecting, thinking it may begin forming a bit of a right shoulder there about,

Its a 200 EMA bud and use it quite frequently for reference sakes and to mark some levels and key areas, works even better when there is confluence of factors to support the bias.
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #115
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:22am Oct 29, 2019 10:22am
Quoting MzansiObi
... Its a 200 EMA bud and use it quite frequently for reference sakes and to mark some levels and key areas, works even better when there is confluence of factors to support the bias.
WOW...I think there is a huge difference in the quote providers for our respective platforms. I noticed this before as well. But look what happens when I put the 200 EMA on my chart...

Yet another reason I don't use these anymore.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 51 KB


EDIT: Ok...NOW I feel really stupid...It just occurred to me that this chart is a 2 hr chart...of course that curve is going to be different...DUH!
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #116
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:25am Oct 29, 2019 10:25am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} WOW...I think there is a huge difference in the quote providers for our respective platforms. I noticed this before as well. But look what happens when I put the 200 EMA on my chart... Yet another reason I don't use these anymore. {image}
Change your time frame DOn and have another look.....lols
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #117
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:28am Oct 29, 2019 10:28am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Change your time frame DOn and have another look.....lols
My charts on the Daily whereas yours is on the H2 mate....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #118
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:29am Oct 29, 2019 10:29am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Change your time frame DOn and have another look.....lols
Yeah...I just realized that...nothing like making a really public stupid mistake!!
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #119
  • Oct 29, 2019 10:34am Oct 29, 2019 10:34am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Yeah...I just realized that...nothing like making a really public stupid mistake!!
Lol, its all good, been a long day bud......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #120
  • Edited 11:08am Oct 29, 2019 10:44am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} WOW...I think there is a huge difference in the quote providers for our respective platforms. I noticed this before as well. But look what happens when I put the 200 EMA on my chart... Yet another reason I don't use these anymore. {image} EDIT: Ok...NOW I feel really stupid...It just occurred to me that this chart is a 2 hr chart...of course that curve is going to be different...DUH!
Just interrupting here for a moment, this is something I've mentioned, also to a couple other people. For the avoidance of confusion, try something like barchart.com and click until you get the appropriate chart for reference purposes. I don't think there is a DUH moment - check relative lows this month.

My data provider, when they rolled into Dec, just left the previous prices and started with Dec. So, a big gap even when there was none last week. Stuffs things up big time...if I relied on that (I don't - I pay a few hundred bucks a year for daily data for nearly every futures contract on planet earth, plus a heap of other stuff).

Edit - and also compare with the lows in August in say the Dec contract. You may be missing that there was bigger support than ya realise.
0 traders viewing now