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How to avoid stopp loss...anyone doing that? 52 replies

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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #81
  • Oct 23, 2019 4:33pm Oct 23, 2019 4:33pm
Sleepy last couple days for nat gas. Let's see if the EIA inventory tomorrow provides a pop for us!
  • #82
  • Oct 23, 2019 4:40pm Oct 23, 2019 4:40pm
Quoting nastynatty
Sleepy last couple days for nat gas. Let's see if the EIA inventory tomorrow provides a pop for us!
I'm glad you posted...I fell asleep watching this market...zzzzzzzz
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  • #83
  • Oct 23, 2019 6:22pm Oct 23, 2019 6:22pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I'm glad you posted...I fell asleep watching this market...zzzzzzzz


It has been quiet lately, but I think it'll liven up as we get later into fall.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #84
  • Oct 23, 2019 7:27pm Oct 23, 2019 7:27pm
Quoting nastynatty
Sleepy last couple days for nat gas. Let's see if the EIA inventory tomorrow provides a pop for us!
Forecasts are calling for a big drop from previous. Biggest decline since mid-Sept. We are already deep into October. This could be the beginning of the supply/demand shift if temperatures continue to get cooler. No big snowstorms yet. If I were long Natural Gas, this is around the time I'd start to thing about closing my position.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #85
  • Oct 24, 2019 2:45am Oct 24, 2019 2:45am
Hear Hear oh ye, do not be quick to jump to conclusions. This is order flow reading class not fundy, I love both, but this is more about what is happening on the chart. Market has gone dull, yes, but there is an unfilled gap open btw 2.383 - 2.402. Supply took over, then now is the disinterest period where neither side is committed to push. For now, and there is the origin of the last rally move around 2.33 of which sometimes market likes to retest. I had mention this retest earlier, then we had the gap opening, I knew I am not interested in buying NAT.GAS anymore, I went long WTI instead, better order flow. Just my take...

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  • #86
  • Oct 24, 2019 2:51am Oct 24, 2019 2:51am
The Don, did you unwind your Longs yet or still holding? Interested in your trade management!
  • #87
  • Oct 24, 2019 3:08am Oct 24, 2019 3:08am
Quoting danasa
Hear Hear oh ye, do not be quick to jump to conclusions. This is order flow reading class not fundy, I love both, but this is more about what is happening on the chart. Market has gone dull, yes, but there is an unfilled gap open btw 2.383 - 2.402. Supply took over, then now is the disinterest period where neither side is committed to push. For now, and there is the origin of the last rally move around 2.33 of which sometimes market likes to retest. I had mention this retest earlier, then we had the gap opening, I knew I am not interested in buying...
Which contract month is that? I have looked at Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar, and no joy. In fact, the further out ones are pushing newish lows.

I too like charts.
  • #88
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:05am Oct 24, 2019 10:05am
Quoting danasa
Hear Hear oh ye, do not be quick to jump to conclusions. This is order flow reading class not fundy…
Hello Dan my friend. Sorry for the confusion but this thread is NOT an order flow reading class. I started this thread to invite commentary on the NAT GAS energy market. A market I have only recently begun to trade. I started in this sector to show that trading is trading now matter the market, and no matter your method.

All commentary is welcome, and especially in commodities fundamental announcements and news reports are important, especially on one that effects how people stay warm in the winter (EVERY winter).

This market is distinctly different from the FX thread where I was offering commentary and asking for discussion on order flow trading. I still utilize this methodology to trade here but it is not exclusively dedicated to the learning (ie class) of order flow. But rather to broaden my horizons.
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  • #89
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:06am Oct 24, 2019 10:06am
Quoting danasa
The Don, did you unwind your Longs yet or still holding? Interested in your trade management!
Nope still holding long...and relying on the buying at the bottom of this range to protect my position...that theory may yet prove faulty as selling still seems to be what traders are transacting.
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  • #90
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:11am Oct 24, 2019 10:11am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Forecasts are calling for a big drop from previous. Biggest decline since mid-Sept. We are already deep into October. This could be the beginning of the supply/demand shift if temperatures continue to get cooler. No big snowstorms yet. If I were long Natural Gas, this is around the time I'd start to thing about closing my position.
Natural Gas storage data hit the CME front month pretty hard.
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Even a broken clock is right two times a day! Seriously though. The writing is on the wall with Natural Gas. Supply is starting to contract as temperatures begin to fall. Demand will depend on how cold this winter gets in the US. I'll say it again, I'd be careful trying to hold long positions in natty gas at this time.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #91
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:11am Oct 24, 2019 10:11am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Nope still holding long...but so far a very sleepy market.
Inventory numbers inline with forecasts . Only the weather could trigger some action i guess

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 87B below forecasts (88B) in October 18
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #92
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:22am Oct 24, 2019 10:22am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Inventory numbers inline with forecasts . Only the weather could trigger some action i guess United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 87B below forecasts (88B) in October 18
I was just looking at that number. While I do not pay too much attention to the announcements, it appears the supply and demand are just about what was anticipated...thus the ranging sleepy market.

Events Trader: I do value your insight on fundamental application of announcements...may I clarify something however? When you say the "supply is starting to contract" I assume the new futures contracts just came out of rollover. So are you indicating that the buying of these contracts is sending price lower? That seems backwards to me. Or are you simply saying we are in a new contract period and with the anticipated supply holding firm...contract sales are slow?
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  • #93
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:48am Oct 24, 2019 10:48am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Hello Dan my friend. Sorry for the confusion but this thread is NOT an order flow reading class. I started this thread to invite commentary on the NAT GAS energy market. A market I have only recently begun to trade. I started in this sector to show that trading is trading now matter the market, and no matter your method. All commentary is welcome, and especially in commodities fundamental announcements and news reports are important, especially on one that effects how people stay warm in the winter (EVERY winter). This market is distinctly...
Okay got it, seems like all style goes. Next I will invite an Elliot Wave guy, then the lunar cycle guy and biorhythm guy. Then we will all be tower of babel here. Okay, jokes aside, good you reassert your threads direction. I assumed it was like all the other trades we talk order flow mostly. I too value fundamental but then I digress...keep the discussion going. Hmm you are keeping your longs? then will be a closely watched market for you, for if supply crushes that buy level, it will be swift touch down I supposed. Dare to break-even? I am eager to know about how you will trade manage this one and logic than the actual trade potential. Cheers!
  • #94
  • Oct 24, 2019 11:48am Oct 24, 2019 11:48am
Quoting danasa
... I am eager to know about how you will trade manage this one and logic than the actual trade potential. Cheers!
The logic for me holding this trade is this:

  1. On the last round of selling, said selling exhausted itself leaving no further interest in selling at the lower levels
  2. Buying has come in to move price higher, but the slightly higher prices have garnered more selling interest.
  3. While selling continues near the highs of the current range its volume doesn't appear sufficient to absorbe the buying that is occurring at the bottom of the range.
  4. On the most recent move higher I have not yet noted anything I would consider "buying exhaustion", meaning, I believe there are more buy orders waiting above the current range high. If nothing more than they are stops for the shorts entered at the top of the range.
  5. the more balanced this range appears the more likely that a "flush" could occur on either or both sides. Thus, it would be foolish (IMHO) to bring the stops in too tight, because it is these stops that will fuel the rise higher assuming a "flush" of the lows occurs.

I am looking for a test of the 2,800 (spot) level but would not be surprised to see some serious selling occur around 2,750. However, at this point in time...there's nothing to do but wait. IF the "flush" (affectionately called "the FU stop") does occur to the down side, and IF I am stopped out, then I will re-evaluate and see what the order flow is doing then.

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  • #95
  • Edited 12:00pm Oct 24, 2019 11:49am | Edited 12:00pm
I have a neat little formula that plots the moon cycle in Metastock. It can even be adjusted to your time zone (this can be important as, for example, it is Saturday here when it is Friday elsewhere).

I guess I could just look outside (it is usually dark here during Euro/US market times), but this is much more fun.
  • #96
  • Oct 24, 2019 11:55am Oct 24, 2019 11:55am
Quoting LloydOz
I have a neat little formula that plots the moon cycle in Metastock. It can even be adjusted to your time zone. I guess I could just look outside (it is usually dark here during Euro/US market times), but this is much more fun.
Not for nothing, but I know a guy who uses lunar cycles to trade gold. Which (IMHO) actually makes sense...for Gold. It is based on religious beliefs in India in which many of the faithful give gold as an offering for their faith. And this cycle is lunar based. Thus demand (in India) rises significantly during this cycle and brings gold prices along with it.

There is also a theory that holds that people are more aggressive during certain phases of the lunar cycle making them more amenable to trade more aggressively as well.

So its not completely unheard of. However I think I'll just stick to my method. It seems to work well for me. However, if you are a "lunar trading expert"...lets hear your theory and how it applies to this particular market?
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  • #97
  • Oct 24, 2019 12:43pm Oct 24, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Not for nothing, but I know a guy who uses lunar cycles to trade gold. Which (IMHO) actually makes sense...for Gold. It is based on religious beliefs in India in which many of the faithful give gold as an offering for their faith. And this cycle is lunar based. Thus demand (in India) rises significantly during this cycle and brings gold prices along with it. There is also a theory that holds that people are more aggressive during certain phases of the lunar cycle making them more amenable to trade more aggressively as well. So its not completely...
I am sure there are monthly cycles in lots of things on many levels. To the extent they may be manifested in human activity, causing a measurable effect on markets which may be exploited, then all is good in the world.

Welles Wilder pushed his Delta theory which was mostly based on lunar cycles (which in fact are not regular, but average at 29.530589 days) and was thoroughly discredited by anyone with more brains than money. Which is a shame, as his stuff was also my (and many others) introduction to technical analysis all those years ago with my calculator and hand drawn charts.

Nothing at all to do with NG, but I am happy to be corrected. Hey, I may try my hand at finding the Delta turning points for NG if I have a lazy afternoon. Who knows, it may be much more fun than reading Dostoyevsky. I doubt it.
  • #98
  • Oct 24, 2019 3:10pm Oct 24, 2019 3:10pm
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #99
  • Oct 25, 2019 3:27am Oct 25, 2019 3:27am
Interesting read:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...actors-support
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #100
  • Oct 25, 2019 8:16am Oct 25, 2019 8:16am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} The logic for me holding this trade is this: On the last round of selling, said selling exhausted itself leaving no further interest in selling at the lower levels Buying has come in to move price higher, but the slightly higher prices have garnered more selling interest. While selling continues near the highs of the current range its volume doesn't appear sufficient to absorbe the buying that is occurring at the bottom of the range. On the most recent move higher I have not yet noted anything I would consider "buying exhaustion", meaning,...
ok, reasonable.
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