WTI Crude Oil Trading

Nice one champ!

I've kept away Sponge, tonight is an example of what it's not going to do, for this reason I've been cautious, it's looking more like a short of this moment on the chart, you have mail,D

Short open 54.26, D

Hope API numbers will give you wings.

Tomorrow Li? D

I took the short because it slipped back under the rising sup line, could be on the wrong side but my exposure in minimal for a punt, chart making more for the position, D

API took a few cents off crude, but it was a smaller reaction than usual.

WTI is hitting fresh session lows. If the CME front-month crude contract breaks $54, it's a short IMO. It's close!

WTI ignores upbeat API data amid growing concerns on demand-supply matrix
23 October 2019, 03:46

 

1. WTI extends pullback from the eight-day high.
2. News of likely OPEC+ output cut and a decline in the US shale production growth confronts lower demand forecast.
3. Receding geopolitical tension in Syria seems to be the latest one to exert downside pressure.

With the growing uncertainty surrounding the global oil demand-supply matrix, coupled with receding geopolitical tension, WTI extends the latest declines to $54.20 by the press time of early Wednesday.
While demand-side concerns have been fuelled by the talks of a likely production cut by the members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), supply-side news has been affected by Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak’s comments that the US oil production is set to peak out in few years and Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a lower oil output growth by the US shale.
Also exerting the downside pressure is the receding geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The latest tweet from the United States’ (US) President Donald Trump, which marks Syria, should be quoted for the reference. Additionally, doubts over the US-China trade deal becomes an extra worry for the Oil bulls.
Danske Bank seems to have favored the same in their latest reports while saying, “We expect oil prices to remain depressed close to current levels in the coming years mainly due to weak global demand on the back of weak growth, trade tensions and a strong USD. We forecast Brent will average USD65/bbl in Q4 and USD60/bbl in 2020.”
It’s worth mentioning that weekly US oil stocks report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), for the week ended on October 18, weakened to 4.45M versus 10.50M earlier readouts.
While trade/political headlines will keep directing near-term Oil prices, weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change, for the period till October 18, from the that the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will also be the key to watch. Forecasts suggest the official inventory figure to decline to 1.725M from 9.281M.
Technical Analysis
Not only 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level around $54.30 but an area including monthly tops and 50-day EMA, near $55.00/10 will also keep WTI prices under check before highlighting 100-day EMA level close to $56.00. On the downside, WTI’s declines below a monthly rising trend line around $52.20 could recall $50.50 back to the chart.

Yes it could be short but it seems to have defied gravity yesterday so thinking somethings in the mix.

I have a bit of a conflict wiith my signals but 54.20 remains the key level in my opinion, initial upside target 55.27.

On the short side I think sub 54.20 could lead to more sideways but news could skew, I think 53 would confirm downside

Didn't recieve any mail D ?

What's happened to RobyT ????

The garbage was finally taken out -- didn't you notice the thread smells better? (membership cancelled)

So who's doing the cabaret now ?

Anyone into buying shares?

How about Vodafone uk £161.42 atm

I'm not trading oil until i'm clear on direction but this is what I'm looking at.



This gap in Brent put me off shorts.

Yeah this was surprising. Hopefully today crude data injects some volatility.

When analyzing any market, the global context is vitally important.

In the case of #oil, we have:

1) HUGE TRAP for bulls and Exploding totally sellers from market by killing their SLs. This is the starting point that produces impact over the #oil market.

2) As a consequence after Trap we got a development of S-Wave, ...

3) ..which culminated (Panic Selling moment) on 03/Oct.

Since that day, market entered consolidation zone A-B (balancing wedge).

4) Here is a clue. Fake breakout (with an increase in volume) of line A yesterday, with a decline today.

From the arguments mentioned above, I have more bearish expectations in the nearest hours or even days.

PREVIOUS HIGH HIT

I closed my long, now on the side, bullish view changing, possible limit to upside, really not sure at the moment so safer out.

Good luck

Edit ...also close longer term trade, I could be wrong about the change, my loss if I am.