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How to avoid stopp loss...anyone doing that? 52 replies

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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #61
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:07am Oct 20, 2019 11:07am
Quoting Ll1979
H4 chart at crucial point
I agree this is a crucial point in the order flow. But I am seeing (at this point) a typical range that still does not show any signs of breaking. There seems to be an abundance of buying near the lows of the range that extends toward the top...however, I also see that this buying does not seem to be able to overcome the selling that is occurring at/near the top of the range...at least not yet.

So I consider this a "stable" range, and will just leave my position alone until I see something else develop. I imagine as the market opens around the world, price will retreat back inside this range.
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  • #62
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:59am Oct 20, 2019 11:59am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I agree this is a crucial point in the order flow. But I am seeing (at this point) a typical range that still does not show any signs of breaking. There seems to be an abundance of buying near the lows of the range that extends toward the top...however, I also see that this buying does not seem to be able to overcome the selling that is occurring at/near the top of the range...at least not yet. So I consider this a "stable" range, and will just leave my position alone until I see something else develop. I imagine as the market opens around...
Hey Don


As things stand I wanna buy dips, but first and foremost I want to see how the market opens and where we are ahead of the London session....I'd like to see it close below 2.2863 to have some faith in the bears ......

Trade safe
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #63
  • Oct 20, 2019 12:04pm Oct 20, 2019 12:04pm
Quoting MzansiObi
Hey Don As things stand I wanna buy dips, but first and foremost I want to see how the market opens and where we are ahead of the London session....I'd like to see it close below 2.2863 to have some faith in the bears ...... Trade safe
I agree...my bias is also bullish, and I am long with two small positions. I think if buyers can rally up through the current level, new highs are in play. I'm not really bearish at this point either...but???
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  • #64
  • Oct 20, 2019 3:14pm Oct 20, 2019 3:14pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I agree...my bias is also bullish, and I am long with two small positions. I think if buyers can rally up through the current level, new highs are in play. I'm not really bearish at this point either...but???
Agreed, lets see if last weeks high can be broken and a clear close above it...
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #65
  • Oct 20, 2019 5:04pm Oct 20, 2019 5:04pm
Pretty big gap lower in Natty Gas at the weekly open.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #66
  • Oct 20, 2019 11:46pm Oct 20, 2019 11:46pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Pretty big gap lower in Natty Gas at the weekly open. {image}
I like to watch where things open on Mondays. But usually at "extremes" - not so much when in consolidation. A technical/psychological thing (as are most things, if I may be so bold).
  • #67
  • Edited Oct 21, 2019 1:23am Oct 20, 2019 11:55pm | Edited Oct 21, 2019 1:23am
Don - I have been meaning to respond to your recent elucidation of what is behind the pretty colours on your charts, for which I am most grateful. I think I understand, and I look forward to more so I can comment in a manner that won't embarrass anyone. So far, what was interesting is how there was selling at resistance on Friday.

I use a kinda proxy for buying and selling pressure which is is where the open and close are in relation to each other. Pretty blunt, but better than a stick in the eye. I average everything anyway, so its not a day to day thing I analyze. Totally different.

Edit - by the way, I must check again, but I remember thinking you might be using back-adjusted continuation charts. I'll check again. I try to avoid (if possible - ie, if there is sufficient back data on a contract month) coz recent significant levels may differ a bit.
  • #68
  • Oct 21, 2019 8:00am Oct 21, 2019 8:00am
NG (NOV) getting hammered
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #69
  • Oct 21, 2019 9:16am Oct 21, 2019 9:16am
Quoting LloydOz
... I use a kinda proxy for buying and selling pressure which is is where the open and close are in relation to each other....
I used to use a similar method but found it very frustrating at times as it did not seem to correlate well to what I "thought" was happening. As it turns out I was right. Seeing the order flow for yourself allows for much better decision making.

Quoting LloydOz
... by the way, I must check again, but I remember thinking you might be using back-adjusted continuation charts. I'll check again. I try to avoid (if possible - ie, if there is sufficient back data on a contract month) coz recent significant levels may differ a bit.
I don't...in fact I don't even know what those are. However, I would be very cautious of anything that is "back adjusted"
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  • #70
  • Oct 21, 2019 9:21am Oct 21, 2019 9:21am
Yes...price is moving down in response to some significant selling and is once again threatening my position. Price is currently in the area where the last round of significant buying occurred. I'll have to wait a few days to see if that occurs once again. If not...looks like my position is in jeopardy.
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  • #71
  • Oct 21, 2019 10:11am Oct 21, 2019 10:11am
buying is showing up at the lows of the day...and also at the lows of the range. Stable range
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  • #72
  • Oct 21, 2019 2:27pm Oct 21, 2019 2:27pm
Quoting DonPato
Yes...price is moving down in response to some significant selling and is once again threatening my position. Price is currently in the area where the last round of significant buying occurred. I'll have to wait a few days to see if that occurs once again. If not...looks like my position is in jeopardy. {image}
Very interested to see what happens around thie 2.400 level. That seems like a key point in the charts for the next couple days.
  • #73
  • Oct 21, 2019 4:04pm Oct 21, 2019 4:04pm
Quoting DonPato
Yes...price is moving down in response to some significant selling and is once again threatening my position. Price is currently in the area where the last round of significant buying occurred. I'll have to wait a few days to see if that occurs once again. If not...looks like my position is in jeopardy. {image}
I am always reminded why natural gas is not the place to cut your teeth in trading but that is all the more reason to climb that mountain. I'm glad I am not the only one fighting the fight right now though DonPato. Good luck to you sir.
  • #74
  • Edited Oct 22, 2019 12:05am Oct 21, 2019 11:18pm | Edited Oct 22, 2019 12:05am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I used to use a similar method but found it very frustrating at times as it did not seem to correlate well to what I "thought" was happening. As it turns out I was right.
Yeah. We use them for different purposes, though - for me, a measure of "noise" in the denominator or whatever, which is an average, in any metric I am calculating.

(OHLC) of 20, 25,15, 18 has is 18 (5+10+3) of movement, compared to,say, H-L of 10. Which is correct if it were 25,25,15,15. Also include previous close.

Makes a difference to pedants like me. You may or may not wanna read some academic stuff on calculating option volatility - head hurt material - and they struggle to get even the basics right, in my opinion. Big topic. I digress.

Back to NG - being a "position" trader I really only consider daily data - even 4 hourly is too "noisy" - any clean signal is lost in the squelch, like tuning out the static in ya radio to a station in poor conditions. My nifty moving average which takes noise into account has been dead flat for over a week now. No signal either way.

This does not invalidate my preliminary analysis that we have a bottom in place over October - I am yet to see *good* confirmation, though. Prices may do what they are best at doing and continue lower to invalidate this. Nothing surprises me more than being not surprised - a move below October lows is not unexpected in consolidations and big market players play funny buggers which may mess with those trading off short term charts.
  • #75
  • Oct 22, 2019 1:16am Oct 22, 2019 1:16am
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #76
  • Oct 22, 2019 8:21am Oct 22, 2019 8:21am
buying power seems to be kicking in
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #77
  • Oct 22, 2019 9:09am Oct 22, 2019 9:09am
Buying seems to have established a clear bottom to this range. If selling can over come this area price will most certainly drop...I imagine there are quite a few stops just below this area.
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  • #78
  • Oct 22, 2019 9:20am Oct 22, 2019 9:20am
Quoting LloydOz
...- being a "position" trader I really only consider daily data - even 4 hourly is too "noisy" -
You and I are alike in this aspect. While I don't consider myself a "position" trader. The order flow charts I post (while they are best seen on a 2 hr chart) are actually the daily flows. Each histogram is 24 hrs of data - based on NY close.

I do "peek" at them intraday but I do not make any decisions for entry or exit until the end of each day's trading. I may move stops intraday on something that (to me) appears obvious, but no entry or exit decisions are made intraday. Since most of my orders are pending (limit) orders I am usually filled during the EUR session but not always. This is most convenient for me as I am asleep during that time.

Quoting LloydOz
...My nifty moving average which takes noise into account has been dead flat for over a week now. No signal either way. This does not invalidate my preliminary analysis that we have a bottom in place over October - I am yet to see *good* confirmation, though...
This observation also confirms the "stable" range idea that I use. I interpret this "stability" as one of two things. Buyers and sellers are truly in a war over price control...or...simple lack of interest in the instrument. As I see the weekly volume rising over the past same week we are analyzing I submit there is a "positioning war" occurring and that for price to move in either direction there will be a "flushing" of one or both sides of this range to see who will hold on. (ie, where the deep pockets are).

Quoting LloydOz
...Nothing surprises me more than being not surprised - a move below October lows is not unexpected in consolidations and big market players play funny buggers which may mess with those trading off short term charts.
This is exactly what I mean by "flushing" both sides...
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  • #79
  • Oct 22, 2019 9:22am Oct 22, 2019 9:22am
Quoting helgastrxd
I am always reminded why natural gas is not the place to cut your teeth in trading but that is all the more reason to climb that mountain. I'm glad I am not the only one fighting the fight right now though DonPato. Good luck to you sir.
Thanks for the solidarity friend...I guess we'll both see what happens through out the week...but don't expect a whole bunch.. I think Nat Gas is in at "positioning war" right now...(see above comments)
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  • #80
  • Oct 22, 2019 2:26pm Oct 22, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} You and I are alike in this aspect. While I don't consider myself a "position" trader. The order flow charts I post (while they are best seen on a 2 hr chart) are actually the daily flows. Each histogram is 24 hrs of data - based on NY close. I do "peek" at them intraday but I do not make any decisions for entry or exit until the end of each day's trading. I may move stops intraday on something that (to me) appears obvious, but no entry or exit decisions are made intraday. Since most of my orders are pending (limit) orders I am usually filled...
Great points about markets "flushing" in general, but definitely looks like we are in one of those stable ranges in NG at present!
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