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Hurricane Watch

  • #81
  • Sep 30, 2019 1:13pm Sep 30, 2019 1:13pm


We at the end of the season? Calling it a wrap for the year, fellas?

Atlantic:
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Eastern North Pacific:
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Central Pacific:
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(#toosoon?)
  • #82
  • Oct 1, 2019 4:25pm Oct 1, 2019 4:25pm
Quoting vpn
We at the end of the season? Calling it a wrap for the year, fellas? Atlantic:{image} Eastern North Pacific: {image} Central Pacific: {image} (#toosoon?)
If so, it has been pretty uneventful for the markets. Little to no disruption in the gulf. Will be interesting to see if E&P players get comfortable with that fact and are not so quick to ditch platforms in future seasons. This year, They bailed with early predictions on Dorian which ended up having very little effect.
  • #83
  • Oct 1, 2019 10:27pm Oct 1, 2019 10:27pm
Irish hurricane anyone?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/iris...could-20383954
  • #84
  • Edited Oct 8, 2019 6:20pm Oct 7, 2019 7:12pm | Edited Oct 8, 2019 6:20pm
Quoting helgastrxd
Irish hurricane anyone? https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/iris...could-20383954
Seems like we are in unprecedented times with the global weather situation! I'm not smart enough to comment on cause and effect but might try to make a play as it develops further. I can't remember hearing about a hurricane headed east out of the Atlantic to hit Europe with strength!
  • #85
  • Oct 7, 2019 11:22pm Oct 7, 2019 11:22pm
Quoting nastynatty
{quote} Seems like we are in unprecedented times with the global weather situation! I'm not smart enough to comment on cause and effect but might try to make a play as it develops further. I can't remember hearing about a hurricane headed east out of the Pacific to hit Europe with strength!
I can't recall the last storm to impact Europe either, but apparently a lot of storms have hit Europe in the past. Supposedly in the future hurricanes may begin to form in the Mediterranian.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #86
  • Oct 8, 2019 2:02pm Oct 8, 2019 2:02pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I can't recall the last storm to impact Europe either, but apparently a lot of storms have hit Europe in the past. Supposedly in the future hurricanes may begin to form in the Mediterranian.
Yeah, you are right Much more calm in that weather area... But we might have some serious winter problems Floods are also a concern...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #87
  • Oct 8, 2019 6:22pm Oct 8, 2019 6:22pm
It looks like these three storms may see us out of the season for the US. They may have some affect on east coast but not much market-moving potential imo.
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  • #88
  • Oct 8, 2019 10:52pm Oct 8, 2019 10:52pm
Quoting nastynatty
It looks like these three storms may see us out of the season for the US. They may have some affect on east coast but not much market-moving potential imo. {image}
Yep, these systems aren't going to impact land.

We're into October now and I believe October is the peak of hurricane season for the Gulf of Mexico. It's been quiet lately, but we've still got about 8 weeks left for the 2019 season.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #89
  • Oct 10, 2019 2:44pm Oct 10, 2019 2:44pm

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  • #90
  • Oct 10, 2019 3:14pm Oct 10, 2019 3:14pm
Quoting vpn
We at the end of the season? Calling it a wrap for the year, fellas? Atlantic:{image} Eastern North Pacific: {image} Central Pacific: {image} (#toosoon?)
I think you may be right vpn! It looks like we may need pack this thread in a box and shelve it in the attic, until next season.

I found this weather themed thread to be useful and informative! Thank you ef5 and all of its participants!

Ef5, what do you think about a Wintry Polar Vortex thread, that we could follow when the seasons change? Do you think it would be useful?
  • #91
  • Oct 11, 2019 4:02pm Oct 11, 2019 4:02pm
Tracking winter weather would take a lot more planning and playing on small margins compared to hurricane tracking, as far as I understand it. Hurricanes, particularly in the gulf can cause huge supply disruptions at both production and refining sites. That is where major volatility can come in. Extreme winter weather is more likely to have an effect on the demand side of energy consumption, which won't have as drastic effect on prices. Certainly it can but not as likely. Times of peak demand for electricity, heating oil or nat gas can all cause some movement. Winter weather can cause grid disruption which could create some panic in nat gas for example.
  • #92
  • Oct 14, 2019 2:33pm Oct 14, 2019 2:33pm
Nat gas moving on volatile weather in Japan and the US? Huge typhoon destruction in Japan and early brush with cold weather in northern US.
  • #93
  • Oct 14, 2019 3:59pm Oct 14, 2019 3:59pm
Quoting nastynatty
Tracking winter weather would take a lot more planning and playing on small margins compared to hurricane tracking, as far as I understand it. Hurricanes, particularly in the gulf can cause huge supply disruptions at both production and refining sites. That is where major volatility can come in. Extreme winter weather is more likely to have an effect on the demand side of energy consumption, which won't have as drastic effect on prices. Certainly it can but not as likely. Times of peak demand for electricity, heating oil or nat gas can all...
It certainly is a "little" different. Even if using of similar (basic) tools, hurricanes are very specially beasts... Very exhausting... For more "normal" weather, it comes down to how precise one wants to be and what computing power/cloud does he have (access to)... Also it depends on what kind of winter weather... Some "peaceful" snow is quite nice to play with Let me put it this way... It would be much easier for me to plan for the whole winter then to do like 1-3 hurricanes This Dorian for example... I mean I am done with hurricanes for quite some time...

Quoting nastynatty
Nat gas moving on volatile weather in Japan and the US? Huge typhoon destruction in Japan and early brush with cold weather in northern US.
Tnx for the update... I must admit that I am kinda disappointed on NGAS atm.. but since the market corrected (properly.. at least in my book)... just last week... I will give it a few more weeks
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #94
  • Oct 14, 2019 4:56pm Oct 14, 2019 4:56pm
Quoting C8H18
{quote} I think you may be right vpn! It looks like we may need pack this thread in a box and shelve it in the attic, until next season. I found this weather themed thread to be useful and informative! Thank you ef5 and all of its participants! Ef5, what do you think about a Wintry Polar Vortex thread, that we could follow when the seasons change? Do you think it would be useful?
That's a great idea! I'll get a winter thread going in another month or so.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #95
  • Oct 14, 2019 4:57pm Oct 14, 2019 4:57pm
Currently much of the Atlantic and Gulf are unfavorable for development so the tropics will probably continue to be quiet for awhile longer.

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Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #96
  • Oct 14, 2019 10:26pm Oct 14, 2019 10:26pm
Quoting Ef5
Currently much of the Atlantic and Gulf are unfavorable for development so the tropics will probably continue to be quiet for awhile longer. {image}
Once we get into late October and November, which is the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, any storms would likely form in the Gulf of Mexico. As your picture shows the water is warm and ripe for a storm to develop.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #97
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:46am Oct 15, 2019 10:46am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I can't recall the last storm to impact Europe either, but apparently a lot of storms have hit Europe in the past. Supposedly in the future hurricanes may begin to form in the Mediterranian.
I've personally never heard about Hurricane in Europe and I am surprised that Mediterranean can help form Hurricanes.
  • #98
  • Oct 15, 2019 5:05pm Oct 15, 2019 5:05pm
Just when I say it is quiet we have a possible storm coming to the western Gulf:

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I saw a model taking it into Louisiana at a little over 1,000mbs so we're talking about a weak storm at best. It probably won't be strong enough to impact energy.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #99
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:13pm Oct 16, 2019 1:13pm
Quoting Ef5
Just when I say it is quiet we have a possible storm coming to the western Gulf: {image} I saw a model taking it into Louisiana at a little over 1,000mbs so we're talking about a weak storm at best. It probably won't be strong enough to impact energy.
Wow man you are quick It says we shall wait for the next 2 days for more info... 50% chance atm... So is this 50/50 situation?
As of now, nothing serious as of yet, the bad thing is that it is INSIDE the Gulf... You are right about tracking those things... Because the moment when "everyone" is doing it... it's already too late.. at least market/trading-wise
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #100
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:27pm Oct 16, 2019 2:27pm
Quoting Ef5
I saw a model taking it into Louisiana at a little over 1,000mbs so we're talking about a weak storm at best. It probably won't be strong enough to impact energy.
Worth tracking for sure! If it becomes anything serious on that path, we could see some serious supply disruption. Likely nothing but always like to keep an eye for opportunities.
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