What is the best solution for this case? | Forex Factory

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What is the best solution for this case?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Aug 19, 2020 10:42pm Oct 11, 2019 3:23am | Edited Aug 19, 2020 10:42pm
THREAD CLOSED
be healthy and wealthy... Ceeport
  • #2
  • Oct 11, 2019 1:14pm Oct 11, 2019 1:14pm
You need to find the probability of each possible move:

Quoting shahed58
... Suppose the price is at point A , So two things will happen. First possibility : the price drops from point A Second possibility : The price goes from point A to point B( it takes about 50 to 200 pips )
Is each of these two possibilities of equal probability? (50/50 chance)? If not what is the probability of a drop vs a rise? In addition there is a 3rd condition you have not considered...the possibility of sideways movement...ranging.

None of the resolutions (martingale, hedge, or grid) will help until you can concretely address the probabilities of each possible outcome. In addition, this is the market, NOT a game of chance with odds that do not change. The probabilities in the market are always in flux and thus your proposed solutions will most likely end in unrecoverable losses.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news!! a much broader and more defined view of price movements is needed to answer you question.
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  • #3
  • Edited 1:52pm Oct 11, 2019 1:26pm | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting DonPato
You need to find the probability of each possible move: {quote} Is each of these two possibilities of equal probability? (50/50 chance)? If not what is the probability of a drop vs a rise? In addition there is a 3rd condition you have not considered...the possibility of sideways movement...ranging. None of the resolutions (martingale, hedge, or grid) will help until you can concretely address the probabilities of each possible outcome. In addition, this is the market, NOT a game of chance with odds that do not change. The probabilities in the market...
hi DonPato
thanks for your comment

Please be careful in defining point A
Point A : This is where the price goes out of the Ranging market
be healthy and wealthy... Ceeport
  • #4
  • Oct 11, 2019 1:58pm Oct 11, 2019 1:58pm
Share the indicator and i will share the correct answer (i trade the way you showed the picture point a and possible point b).
  • #5
  • Oct 11, 2019 2:50pm Oct 11, 2019 2:50pm
To answer your question : You have not supplied sufficient info (data ) to form a reasonable answer. I, for one, would be happy to give my price action analysis if you would provide a simple OHLC bar chart with with BBands and SMA's availability.Any answer, based solely on your graphic, would be purely random speculation. Or alternatively provide a reference (date, time frame, and forex pair ) so that I could reference a real world chart of your graphic. Either way I can come up with a definitive answer.
  • #6
  • Last Post: Oct 12, 2019 8:57am Oct 12, 2019 8:57am
Quoting shahed58
{quote} hello eyeball & DonPato & the1student thanks for your contribution and Look at the following examples with charts After the signal price returns and falls down Or price definitely goes up Tip : Point A is the price explosion place But the price direction is difficult to determine question : What is the best way to benefit from this? The indicator does not matter because it will be shared , please provide a solution {image} {image} {image} {image}
Yourself gave the answer.
True.
Learn PA first, and dont trade just because the indicator gives you a signal.

POW!
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