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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #4,741
  • Oct 5, 2019 6:40am Oct 5, 2019 6:40am
Hi Dubtrader, could you please share the hidden divergence indicator? I know its in the thread somewhere, but can't find it through the search and don't really want to trawl the 200 odd pages. I've uploaded a screen shot of the one I mean

Thanks
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  • #4,742
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:14am Oct 5, 2019 10:14am
Quoting bridgstarr
Hi Dubtrader, could you please share the hidden divergence indicator? I know its in the thread somewhere, but can't find it through the search and don't really want to trawl the 200 odd pages. I've uploaded a screen shot of the one I mean Thanks {image}
Hey bridgestarr the indicator was provided by Alan @ post number 2520

Also look up the excellent and concise Pdf on Hidden Divergence posted by member Jazz a couple of weeks back @ post number 4599
  • #4,743
  • Oct 6, 2019 8:49pm Oct 6, 2019 8:49pm
Hello Nalla: Thank you very much for this beautiful method. This thread has been a pleasure to read and an eye opener. Thank you.
Just to double check I have a chart from Friday with an ABC marked on it. My first time at thinking I am seeing it right so I thought I would double check with those in the know. Any and all corrections are welcome. Thanks again for sharing your knowledge. Dave.

30 minute chart

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  • #4,744
  • Oct 7, 2019 12:44am Oct 7, 2019 12:44am
Quoting Dubtrader
{quote} Hey bridgestarr the indicator was provided by Alan @ post number 2520 Also look up the excellent and concise Pdf on Hidden Divergence posted by member Jazz a couple of weeks back @ post number 4599
Thanks
  • #4,745
  • Oct 7, 2019 3:13am Oct 7, 2019 3:13am
Hi

Here's what I did this morning. I'd be grateful for feedback/comments.

Went short at point 1. I saw there was an earlier opportunity to get in, but that was before I was at the computer. The rationale was that the H1 and M5 EMAs were making LLs, and there was bearish support on M5.

I hedged at point 2 based on bullish M5 divergence and entering oversold territory. Then as it whipped around a bit I lost my nerve and closed both positions :-(.

I see at point 3 it looks like bear support, and I could have re-entered on the 2 bar test.

At point 4 there is more bullish divergence on M5, if I was in this trade still, should I have hedged again here? I did not see a clear signal to remove the hedge after point 4. How should I have managed this?

Point 5 is more bullish divergence on M5 corresponding with a level on H1 - time to close out the trade (if I was still in it )??
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  • #4,746
  • Edited 10:17pm Oct 7, 2019 9:42pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting bridgstarr
Hi Here's what I did this morning. I'd be grateful for feedback/comments. Went short at point 1. I saw there was an earlier opportunity to get in, but that was before I was at the computer. The rationale was that the H1 and M5 EMAs were making LLs, and there was bearish support on M5. I hedged at point 2 based on bullish M5 divergence and entering oversold territory. Then as it whipped around a bit I lost my nerve and closed both positions :-(. I see at point 3 it looks like bear support, and I could have re-entered on the 2 bar test. At point 4...
Hi bridgstarr, here's my take:

Went short at point 1. I saw there was an earlier opportunity to get in, but that was before I was at the computer. The rationale was that the H1 and M5 EMAs were making LLs, and there was bearish support on M5.

A sensible place to enter with your first, low-risk position.

I hedged at point 2 based on bullish M5 divergence and entering oversold territory. Then as it whipped around a bit I lost my nerve and closed both positions :-(.

Good hedge! Remember that when you are hedging a winning trade, you can't lose - it's an insurance policy. If price had rocketed up, your first entry (short) would have closed at break-even and you would then have been long.

I see at point 3 it looks like bear support, and I could have re-entered on the 2 bar test.

Bear support was already established at Point 1.

At point 4 there is more bullish divergence on M5, if I was in this trade still, should I have hedged again here? I did not see a clear signal to remove the hedge after point 4. How should I have managed this?

Yes, this would have been another hedge, which would have simply closed at break-even as price continued lower.

Point 5 is more bullish divergence on M5 corresponding with a level on H1 - time to close out the trade (if I was still in it )??

Point 5 also corresponded with a M5 EMA swing low (zoom the chart out a bit and look to the left). Personally, I probably would have hedged at that point and then closed my short positions after the big bullish reversal candle, with the expectation that price was headed back up to the EMA. Once at the EMA, I think you may have reached your 40 pips.
  • #4,747
  • Oct 8, 2019 1:15am Oct 8, 2019 1:15am
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Hi bridgstarr, here's my take: Went short at point 1. I saw there was an earlier opportunity to get in, but that was before I was at the computer. The rationale was that the H1 and M5 EMAs were making LLs, and there was bearish support on M5. A sensible place to enter with your first, low-risk position. I hedged at point 2 based on bullish M5 divergence and entering oversold territory. Then as it whipped around a bit I lost my nerve and closed both positions :-(. Good hedge! Remember that when you are hedging a winning trade, you can't lose...
Many thanks K1w1, I appreciate the feedback
  • #4,748
  • Oct 8, 2019 3:47am Oct 8, 2019 3:47am
Hi

More questions I'm afraid! I traded the move down not too awfully this morning, and I know I should have had 40 pips by point 1 on my chart but I didn't.

At point 1 price had come back to bear support (following bullish divergence on H1 and M5) and there was bearish divergence on M5. However around the area marked number 2, price was coming into hidden divergence on H1. I entered a short trade around point 1, then as I saw the HD on H1, I closed it out for a couple of pips. Obviously it barrelled on down, and if I'd held I would be much happier.

Was there a good reason to ignore the HD on H1? or was this a trade I shouldn't have considered based on the HD on H1?

As ever comments gratefully received.
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  • #4,749
  • Oct 9, 2019 4:00pm Oct 9, 2019 4:00pm
Quoting bridgstarr
Hi More questions I'm afraid! I traded the move down not too awfully this morning, and I know I should have had 40 pips by point 1 on my chart but I didn't. At point 1 price had come back to bear support (following bullish divergence on H1 and M5) and there was bearish divergence on M5. However around the area marked number 2, price was coming into hidden divergence on H1. I entered a short trade around point 1, then as I saw the HD on H1, I closed it out for a couple of pips. Obviously it barrelled on down, and if I'd held I would be much happier....
Hi bridgstarr, can you show the 1H HD you are referring to?

Cheers
  • #4,750
  • Oct 10, 2019 2:25am Oct 10, 2019 2:25am
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Hi bridgstarr, can you show the 1H HD you are referring to? Cheers
Hi K1w1

It is no longer there as price continued on down. However if you look at the screen shot I have marked where it occurred. You can see the hour bar I have marked closes below the previous price pivot, and the RSI is just below the previous pivot. But on the section I have marked, at the time, price was below the previous pivot and RSI was above the previous RSI pivot

cheers
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  • #4,751
  • Oct 10, 2019 6:16am Oct 10, 2019 6:16am
Hi

I got off to a positive start to the day! Managed to get three trades on short around position 1, hedged at 2 because RSI was oversold on M5. Then it sort of fell apart. I wasn't sure where to remove the short as price went up, so in the end closed all positions and walked away with a few pips. In hindsight, it seems that 3 might have been a sensible place after bulls found support on m5 after a 2 bar test. Position 4 looked a good place to hedge again - divergence on M5 and H1 over bought, and then at point 5 hedge off due to divergence on M5

If anyone has comments/feedback. particularly on how/when I should have closed the initial short positions, please let me know. Many thanks
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  • #4,752
  • Oct 10, 2019 12:57pm Oct 10, 2019 12:57pm
Quoting bridgstarr
{quote} Hi K1w1 It is no longer there as price continued on down. However if you look at the screen shot I have marked where it occurred. You can see the hour bar I have marked closes below the previous price pivot, and the RSI is just below the previous pivot. But on the section I have marked, at the time, price was below the previous pivot and RSI was above the previous RSI pivot cheers {image}
I think the lesson is this: if you're ever in doubt, hedge (but only winning trades).

Cheers
  • #4,753
  • Oct 11, 2019 7:36pm Oct 11, 2019 7:36pm
Here is that daily we have spoken of for a month...
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  • #4,754
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:18am Oct 12, 2019 4:18am
It is a long bow to draw but a signal has now developed on the weekly chart. I wouldn't be worrying about getting up early to catch this.
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  • #4,755
  • Oct 12, 2019 4:30am Oct 12, 2019 4:30am
A little more down to Earth are these two last targets on the 5 min chart. Other than that I don't see anything in the short term and await a new setup..
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  • #4,756
  • Oct 14, 2019 2:34am Oct 14, 2019 2:34am
The 1 hour bear div has finally hit the EMA but can the bears cross and find support?

The last short ABCD on the 15 min has been hit also.

Next setup will probably be the 5 min chart for an ABCD
  • #4,757
  • Oct 14, 2019 2:38am Oct 14, 2019 2:38am
There is the signal, now if the bulls find a 5 min support the target should be 2627
  • #4,758
  • Oct 14, 2019 2:48am Oct 14, 2019 2:48am
No bull support so I guess the bears are still in control
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  • #4,759
  • Oct 14, 2019 3:20am Oct 14, 2019 3:20am
The bears have support heading for the 2549 target
  • #4,760
  • Oct 14, 2019 4:09am Oct 14, 2019 4:09am
Not having much joy at all with these targets tonight. Long and short like a Yo-Yo
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