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The PRISM project

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Nov 18, 2019 3:46pm Sep 29, 2019 12:24pm | Edited Nov 18, 2019 3:46pm
Hello again! )

In my first post on this forum, I already wrote some thoughts about the value of graphic tech. analysis, and in this thread I want to talk in more detail about how such thoughts led me to the idea of creating my own startup in the field of financial markets. This venture is directly related to a unique trading strategy, which I've been developing for several years. I’m also going to show some examples on history (like this one) and in real time.
  • #2
  • Edited Sep 30, 2019 12:01am Sep 29, 2019 12:49pm | Edited Sep 30, 2019 12:01am
We were looking for answer to the question “how can we make a fortune on the exchanges?”. It looks like that analyzing the news and the impact of economic processes on the price looks reasonable, solid and seems to allow us to understand why we make decisions about buying or selling a specific financial instrument. At the same time, this approach leads to the need for expert judgment to make each decision. So we need either
-become experts or
-find and hire those.

Most convincing sources agree that only 10% of traders remain successful at a distance of 10 years, and when we are talking about FOREX, it is likely 1%. So if you take a prudent look, it appears that becoming experts and relying solely on your strengths is not promising. The probability of success on the long distance is too small...

Then what about the idea of hiring people who have already proven themselves to be successful traders for 10 years or more? It makes the project dependent on the human factor. To minimize the risk, you need to find 10-50 experts. In this case, if one leaves, we can rely on data from another 49 people, while looking for a replacement. But still, difficulties remain. The cost of services of confirmed specialists may appear to be high. Of course, you can try to avoid this problem, for example by receiving relatively inexpensive signals from professionals through special services. But even with this solution, questions arise:
- Where is the guarantee that some of the results of these experts are not a fake?
-Is it possible to systematically compare the signals of 50 different analysts and traders in such a way as to get forecasts for the same instruments, and even at approximately the same time intervals?

To do this, you need to choose a common "language", i.e. a method of technical analysis that will not cause discrepancies in the description of graphs. The answer to the question “how to make such a system gain popularity?” - may be for example gamification.

So, what if we create a service that process would provide analytics and trading instructions with the elements of the game? The idea is to make something like chess in the world of financial markets. Mostly, we (the team I represent) have already figured out how to do this, but we are still generating and discussing new additional ideas.
  • #3
  • Edited 2:10pm Sep 29, 2019 1:48pm | Edited 2:10pm
Here comes a couple of examples of situations that our service will find and about which it will provide information to traders. Here is the models I published on the onix-trade forum (it's russian trading forum, so don't be surprised if you are going to check proove links) last year on the GBPCHF, 4-hour timeframe. The level of intersection of the lines is called the calculated 6th point (calc. 6) and is the level close to which a correction or a trend reversal may begin (with an estimated probability).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFH4-1.png Size: 29 KB

http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/inde...0/#post-493248

We have a technology for heuristic estimation of the probability of a reversal or correction. The calculations indicated a promising trading situation. I shorted and it was the correct decision. Soon a big correction happened, which began slightly below the level of calc.6

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFH4-2.png Size: 26 KB

http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/inde...0/#post-494193
  • #4
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:07pm Sep 29, 2019 2:07pm
Inaccuracy in reaching the level in this case is a permissible error. It allowed us to make a successful trade. We can see on the screenshot that later the price returned to the level of calc.6 again, however, we no longer considered this as a trading situation. The model, which is shown in the screenshot, is called the External Attraction Model (EAM) and is our unique technique.
  • #5
  • Edited Sep 30, 2019 12:11am Sep 29, 2019 2:30pm | Edited Sep 30, 2019 12:11am
Next I will show an example of a model that came to us from the well-known Tactica Adversa methods. In PRISM, we use the basic rules for selecting extreme points of models from Tactica Adversa. But we don't see advantages of the limitations, additions and interpretations with which Tactica Adversa was extended since it was revealed many years ago. So the methods we use ultimately differ in details.

Here is the Attraction Model in the the Extension Model (AMEM), published in real time on onix-trade last year, GBPCHF, 1H

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFH1-1.png Size: 25 KB

http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/index.php?threads/3-10-gbpchf.92430/#post-492922

Calculations told us it's good, so we bought when the price came close enough to the calc 6. Here is the result:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFH1-2.png Size: 27 KB

http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/index.php?threads/3-10-gbpchf.92430/#post-492943


The correction was not too big, however, it also allowed to close part of the position by take profit, and the second was closed part by shortened stop-loss. The result was a profit.
  • #6
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:48pm Sep 29, 2019 2:48pm
If you gonna end up selling something in the end, please switch to commercial section now. Don't tease people.
  • #7
  • Edited Sep 30, 2019 12:03am Sep 29, 2019 2:59pm | Edited Sep 30, 2019 12:03am
Quoting hibra68
If you gonna end up selling something in the end, please switch to commercial section now. Don't tease people.
The idea is not to sell something here. The idea is to make end explain a service that at the first stage will provide an opportunity to discuss the market in a single language that is universal for the vast majority of markets, trading instruments and timeframes. Moreover, this language will be formalized enough to draw joint conclusions on the specific conditions of the transaction. And most importantly it will be quite comfortable and convenient (ergonomic).
  • #8
  • Sep 29, 2019 6:11pm Sep 29, 2019 6:11pm
Now if you can just say all that in plain English that would be very nice.
The idea is not to confuse people, the idea is to be very clear and concise.
  • #9
  • Sep 30, 2019 12:10am Sep 30, 2019 12:10am
Sorry, I'm thinking in different language and speak english not very often. Changed some words, hope it makes it more understandible now.
  • #10
  • Sep 30, 2019 3:00am Sep 30, 2019 3:00am
I following you system.
  • #11
  • Sep 30, 2019 2:00pm Sep 30, 2019 2:00pm
Thank you, it's great to know, that somebody is interested in!)

I'm going to make one or couple of posts and then I'll try to show some real-time cases Some of the may not be lucky, but others I hope will!
  • #12
  • Oct 2, 2019 5:57am Oct 2, 2019 5:57am
How do you draw the linex exactly?
  • #13
  • Oct 2, 2019 11:58am Oct 2, 2019 11:58am
Quoting Beren
How do you draw the linex exactly?
The basic principles are simple, maybe I'll explain them later. But there is a difficulty in a large number of details. I don't really think many people would be interested in studing the rules and drawing models manually. I was into it for many years myself and I don't think it's fun, because despite a lot of experience I made mistakes and missed some models. Also it takes a lot of time.

Instead we want models to be automatically built with the help of the PRISM service, which will provide all possible models 24 hours a day and it's gonna be free for everyone. And we want to include as many financial instruments as possible.
  • #14
  • Oct 2, 2019 2:08pm Oct 2, 2019 2:08pm
we'll be at the expectation
every day you learn something new
thank you Jj1Joker
  • #15
  • Oct 2, 2019 3:17pm Oct 2, 2019 3:17pm
Quoting eljames1807
we'll be at the expectation every day you learn something new thank you Jj1Joker
Thaks for the feedback!)
  • #16
  • Oct 9, 2019 6:01pm Oct 9, 2019 6:01pm
Ok, finally, let's try this one. I don't really like the case, but my table's say that statistically this trade should be alright. Actually I've just made some tweaks to our heuristic model's and didn't have much time to test it, but anyway let's get this party started!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4.png Size: 39 KB
  • #17
  • Oct 10, 2019 11:16am Oct 10, 2019 11:16am
Price went down. Orders cancelled.
  • #18
  • Oct 10, 2019 11:41am Oct 10, 2019 11:41am
Market has a language, but hard to get for most out here, if i take this what i see in forexfactory.
Simple as that. Market move from one price to next. That in combinatiion with time.
Switch from one price to far away in short time, we have speed.
Switch from one price to a near price in long time, we have no speed. Market is moving over and over again.

Most systems include to much history data, fixed rules and subrules. But the core part is not often in focus, so most systems will run in special situation well turn in an other moment to bad.
The solution is not found in that corner.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #19
  • Oct 10, 2019 12:39pm Oct 10, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting MichaelSch
Market has a language, but hard to get for most out here, if i take this what i see in forexfactory. Simple as that. Market move from one price to next. That in combination with time. Switch from one price to far away in short time, we have speed. Switch from one price to a near price in long time, we have no speed. Market is moving over and over again. Most systems include to much history data, fixed rules and subrules. But the core part is not often in focus, so most systems will run in special situation well turn in an other moment to bad. The...
I'm not sure that I got your idea exactly, but I would notice that "the core" is usually hidden from eyes because it lies in the center of some object. On the other hand, often we can assume, imagine or study what the core is and how it behaves with the help of researches of the object. An example of what I'm speaking about is the Earth core - we don't see it but somehow we have some knowledge about it.

I think, that the ideas used to build models shown in this topic is one of the simplest and most straightforward ways to understand how the core of the price behaves. That's why these models work the way they do.
  • #20
  • Oct 10, 2019 12:43pm Oct 10, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting Jj1Joker
Price went down. Orders cancelled.
Price didn't reach the p6 level. That's actually happens often. Later I think we will work it through to identify such cases before placing orders, but today we just cancel orders and looking for another case...
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