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Attachments: How is the price formed?!
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How is the price formed?!

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Oct 10, 2019 10:29am Oct 2, 2019 9:59am | Edited Oct 10, 2019 10:29am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Hi,

I have a crucial trade question:

When I began trading stocks, it was quite easy to understand how the price is being formed:
There are traders that place an order with a fixed amount of stocks, let's say a buy of 50.
When they select market order, the system - the computer algorithm - is automatically looking for someone (or a group of individuals), who likes to sell an amount of 50 stocks at the current price.
If it doesn't succeed, it may move the price, until it has found the desired bids.
Its a technological thing - when there are enough market participants, it will find an exchange in a fast way; when there are not many participants, a big order may move the price a lot.

However, we have transparency. We can always look into the order book, and see what happened, and whether everything happens according to market standards.
Betrayal is not possible, as everything is surveillanced.

But: I also learned that an index is being formed by the movement of its stocks.
Let's take for example the german DAX.
It has 30 stocks, and depending on their performance, the index moves.

But as we know it is the case, that you can trade the index itself.
With futures, cfds etc.
And traders, trading these securities, trade in general high amounts of money:
They are looking at the volume, the exchange of futures itself shows, not at the buy/sell pressure of the 30 stocks, on which the index is actually based on.

Now - what does the price of an index move?!
The stocks, that it is build on, or the - let me say it this way - artificially created future exchange, of the index?!

Isn't it crystal clear, that only real performance (stocks) create real movement, while artificial created exchanges (created to bet) do nothing productive?
And therefore cannot move the price itself?

But it seems to be the other way round.
Futures trader subscribe to volume feeds of futures, than checking 30 stocks each day by routine.
And don't tell me it ain't this way,...
They look at average NFP rolls, at average market data, than at specific data about the 30 companies.

How does that make sense?!
How can we base trading decisions on the behavior of synthetic exchanges, than on the stocks itself?!


[And: what about currency exchanges, where we do not have any transparency at all?!

We are supposed to believe the machines, that work automatically... Or manually? That's insane.]

Thanks for any input.

PS: I've found this video to explain a little bit...
https://youtu.be/ngpDWsfiM-A
  • Post #2
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  • Oct 8, 2019 5:35am Oct 8, 2019 5:35am
  •  michisuperfr
  • Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Peace_To_The_World | 679 Posts
this video could answer some of your questions (especially from 25:20 on)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0dppEOyp7E
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
 
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  • Post #3
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  • Oct 8, 2019 6:22am Oct 8, 2019 6:22am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Quoting michisuperfr
Disliked
this video could answer some of your questions (especially from 25:20 on) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0dppEOyp7E
Ignored
Danke.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Oct 8, 2019 6:55am Oct 8, 2019 6:55am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Quoting dkrock
Disliked
Probability is probability. It is the likelihood of an event happening, given a certain number of attempts, divided by the number of possible outcomes. I would suspect if the attempts were computer generated, rather than created by human emotional behavior, then it would be easier to measure. Regardless, if there is data, and you can measure it, then you can define it and profit from it. It is simple business analysis. Instead of having a break-even line between costs and profits, you have one between buying and selling. Of course, you can make...
Ignored
Don't know what I can say to that, just that you are confusing and not providing any clarity (just some theoretical stuff).
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Edited at 9:52am Oct 8, 2019 7:13am | Edited at 9:52am
  •  TudorIoan
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 13,925 Posts
Excuse me, there are only two colors, red and green.
Up or down.
That's all you need to know.
Nothing else can really help you!

Mesdames et messieurs, les jeux sont faits, rien ne va plus!
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  • Post #6
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  • Oct 8, 2019 7:15am Oct 8, 2019 7:15am
  •  michisuperfr
  • Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Peace_To_The_World | 679 Posts
You guys obviously don't even understand what he's asking...

This place is just a freakin joke lol
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
 
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  • Post #7
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  • Oct 8, 2019 7:44am Oct 8, 2019 7:44am
  •  michisuperfr
  • Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Peace_To_The_World | 679 Posts
Quoting dkrock
Disliked
{quote} LOL, no, we understand. He has lost focus and is getting distracted on things that do not matter. You can bet on ANYTHING!! Take the bet or don't. No reason to dig into the abyss. Waste of time.
Ignored
Of course it matters what he's asking about. He wants to know how reliable and how much influence the data from a future exchange has on the spot market and vice versa.

If you guys think it's useless...fine...go into your thread and post what's interesting for you, but keep your garbage out of threads from others.
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
 
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  • Post #8
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  • Oct 8, 2019 7:49am Oct 8, 2019 7:49am
  •  TudorIoan
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 13,925 Posts
Quoting michisuperfr
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You guys obviously don't even understand what he's asking... This place is just a freakin joke lol
Ignored
Ok ...and love yo'biography, Mitch!
Member
 
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  • Post #9
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  • Edited at 10:53am Oct 8, 2019 7:53am | Edited at 10:53am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Quoting michisuperfr
Disliked
{quote} Of course it matters what he's asking about. He wants to know how reliable and how much influence the data from a future exchange has on the spot market and vice versa. If you guys think it's useless...fine...go into your thread and post what's interesting for you, but keep your garbage out of threads from others.
Ignored
You are absolutely right, Michi!

Quoting dkrock
Disliked
{quote} You are the Forex Police now? LOL. Congratulations on your promotion. No, what he is asking does not matter. The exchange works on the average of averages, not the individual stocks. For that simple reason, they are more reliable than a stock. It is consolidating through diversity, so outliers have less impact. Now, duh, if traders bet on future prices, then duh, it will affect future prices. Spot Forex is not futures. He has mixed a whole bunch of different markets in a desperate ramble about a non-issue. If you can measure it, you can...
Ignored
I have not mixed anything in a desperate ramble.

I only mention the forex market at the end of my explanation, as an example for highly intransparent price making.

What I actually ask is, how the heck a price of indices - S and P, Dow, Dax - is being formed.

And, whether the stocks it is based on, (shouldn't) have the bigger influence on its price, than the betting and gambling with future exchanges...

Because this is what it is: Actually introduced and made to 'secure' (hedge) real positions, companies hold.

Btw dkrock, we still can read your first post on my repost as quote; anyone can make his own conclusion.
Does not intended to be a personal attack or whatever.
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Edited at 8:32am Oct 8, 2019 8:12am | Edited at 8:32am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Quoting dkrock
Disliked
{quote} The average of averages, like I told you when I was complicated and theoretical. https://www.quora.com/How-is-a-stock-market-index-calculated
Ignored
Yeah, but this is exactly my question:
Do the stocks, the index is based on, have the real influence on how the price performs (as it actually intended to be), or isn't it much more nowadays the future market itself, rounded up by the rumors of it's participants?!
And what is the influence of spot markets towards future markets and vise versa?!

Why is a future index trader subscribing to volume charts of the future market, than to volume of stocks / or much more analyzing all stocks the index is based on?

I never heard a future trader say: Well, I have now analyzed the 30 stocks of Dow and come to the conclusion, that 20 of them will perform positive in future.
That's why I am now buying Dow futures.
 
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  • Post #11
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  • Oct 8, 2019 8:42am Oct 8, 2019 8:42am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
The most interesting thing is:
Instead of doing proper analysis on the stocks, an index is based on, future traders try to reveal and expose, what their competitors of the exact same exchange are doing and thinking:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Size: 577 KB

One artificially created exchange seems to have more 'data' to offer, than the real economy. scaring.
 
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  • Post #12
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  • Oct 8, 2019 9:14am Oct 8, 2019 9:14am
  •  BubaYaga
  • Joined Jun 2014 | Status: coffee's for closers | 692 Posts
I remember, when trading stocks, 15 minutes before the market opened I had the market depth up, and it would calculate where it would open by averaging best offer and best bid. Of course, lot's of those orders in premarket are fake, and get pulled seconds before the bell rings.
There used to be a great website called fragulator or something and it would show volume for the underlying stocks, the futures, and even dark pool. but it no longer exists
if you don't do your maths, the maths will do you.
 
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  • Oct 8, 2019 9:31am Oct 8, 2019 9:31am
  •  Casiopea
  • | Joined Sep 2014 | Status: Member | 43 Posts
Quoting TudorIoan
Disliked
Excuse me, there are only two colors, red and green. Up or down. That's all you need to know. Nothing else can really help you!
Ignored
And to the right side of the chart
 
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  • Post #14
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  • Oct 8, 2019 9:55am Oct 8, 2019 9:55am
  •  TudorIoan
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 13,925 Posts
Quoting Casiopea
Disliked
{quote} And to the right side of the chart
Ignored
Definitely!
Member
 
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  • Post #15
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  • Oct 8, 2019 9:58am Oct 8, 2019 9:58am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Dkrock has vanished and deleted all his inputs... wow.

However, its astonishing that Traders must always rely on the machines, that dictate us, what the correct 'averaged' price is.

That's something that has not been able more than 40/50 years ago, when there has not been this technology /computers.

Many complain about Huawei and whether their 5G technology is safe, or can track / spy on us.
But why is everyone comfortable with this state of the art financial exchanges?!

Who is building their computers, how are they connected in the real world ?!

Do anyone of you knows anybody, who has real insight into the price making and can at least - in looking back at past trades - really verify, that the prices were legitimate?!
 
 
  • Post #16
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  • Oct 9, 2019 6:14am Oct 9, 2019 6:14am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
I just ask myself:

Imagine JP Morgan would buy 100 thousand Dow futures.
The price would explode...
although JP Morgan would not have bought one single Dow based stock.

How is that possible?!
 
 
  • Post #17
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  • Oct 9, 2019 8:03am Oct 9, 2019 8:03am
  •  BubaYaga
  • Joined Jun 2014 | Status: coffee's for closers | 692 Posts
Quoting Fx-Gamer
Disliked
I just ask myself: Imagine JP Morgan would buy 100 thousand Dow futures. The price would explode... although JP Morgan would not have bought one single Dow based stock. How is that possible?!
Ignored
yeah, that would be an amusing fat finger incident. Hundred Thousand at market. Obviously would never happen, but would make large spike.
Arbitrage algos would jump on it pretty quick, and it would come back almost as fast as it went up. And someone at JP Morgan would lose their job.
if you don't do your maths, the maths will do you.
 
 
  • Post #18
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  • Oct 9, 2019 10:03am Oct 9, 2019 10:03am
  •  Fx-Gamer
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2018 | 152 Posts
Quoting BubaYaga
Disliked
{quote} yeah, that would be an amusing fat finger incident. Hundred Thousand at market. Obviously would never happen, but would make large spike. Arbitrage algos would jump on it pretty quick, and it would come back almost as fast as it went up. And someone at JP Morgan would lose their job.
Ignored
Sure, that was an hypothetical example.
But why would the order move the index price at all, as we say that the price is an average ('underlying') of all 30 stocks, not of the exchange at the futures market?!

That means that there is an actual link from the future markets exchange into the price making of the index, which isn't a little strange?!
 
 
  • Post #19
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  • Oct 9, 2019 7:23pm Oct 9, 2019 7:23pm
  •  BubaYaga
  • Joined Jun 2014 | Status: coffee's for closers | 692 Posts
Quoting Fx-Gamer
Disliked
{quote} Sure, that was an hypothetical example. But why would the order move the index price at all, as we say that the price is an average ('underlying') of all 30 stocks, not of the exchange at the futures market?! That means that there is an actual link from the future markets exchange into the price making of the index, which isn't a little strange?!
Ignored
I don't know how much of an effect it would have on the cash index and underlying stocks. Probably not that much as futures volume is dwarfed by cash volume. I meant their would be a spike on the futures, but even that would be less than you might think, as arbitrage algos would go into overdrive when futures price deviates too far away from the cash index price.
if you don't do your maths, the maths will do you.
 
 
  • Post #20
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  • Oct 9, 2019 7:25pm Oct 9, 2019 7:25pm
  •  BubaYaga
  • Joined Jun 2014 | Status: coffee's for closers | 692 Posts
But I guess noone really knows what effect it would have until it happens.
if you don't do your maths, the maths will do you.
 
 
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