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  • #81
  • Oct 4, 2019 7:26pm Oct 4, 2019 7:26pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I guess winter is coming! {image}
Yes, it's the most wonderful time of the year (for NatGas traders especially)
  • #82
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:47am Oct 5, 2019 10:47am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Yes, it's the most wonderful time of the year (for NatGas traders especially)
Yeah, seems it does help A little different than fro WTI... where "the season" (component) seems to be over (or at leat pass the peak) already...
http://www.equityclock.com/charts/na...easonal-chart/
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Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #83
  • Oct 5, 2019 11:12am Oct 5, 2019 11:12am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Yes, it's the most wonderful time of the year (for NatGas traders especially)
I am stil bit carefull winter is coming but inventory numbers are skyhigh.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #84
  • Edited 11:26pm Oct 7, 2019 4:45pm | Edited 11:26pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I am stil bit carefull winter is coming but inventory numbers are skyhigh.
Indeed!!

It will be interesting to see how the "polar vortex/cyclone" news that will surely come out, correlates with supply! Look out for the whitewalkers gentlemen!
  • #85
  • Oct 7, 2019 7:10pm Oct 7, 2019 7:10pm
I see us taking another run at the 2.4 mark this week, with a longer trend developing out of that depending on how that goes.
  • #86
  • Oct 7, 2019 10:45pm Oct 7, 2019 10:45pm
I like to look at Natural Gas on a monthly chart since it's so seasonal. The big drop late 2018 and early 2019, is setting natty gas up for a nice little winter rally. Unless the United States has an unusually warm winter, there's too much upside potential. In the spirit of honesty, I'm not actually taking a long position but this one looks pretty clear to me as a dangerous short position as winter approaches in the U.S.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #87
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:04am Oct 9, 2019 1:04am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I am stil bit carefull winter is coming but inventory numbers are skyhigh.
Yes you are right, this is making it hard to trade with confidence. In recent years I have seen winters come in generally warmer but then a vortex blizzard slams into the NE US and prices pop for a bit. If inventory levels are so high though I'm not sure what the price movement will look like.
  • #88
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:10am Oct 9, 2019 1:10am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yeah, seems it does help A little different than fro WTI... where "the season" (component) seems to be over (or at leat pass the peak) already... http://www.equityclock.com/charts/na...easonal-chart/ {image}
We certainly saw the seasonality effect in September. October has been odd though.
  • #89
  • Oct 9, 2019 1:36am Oct 9, 2019 1:36am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Yes you are right, this is making it hard to trade with confidence. In recent years I have seen winters come in generally warmer but then a vortex blizzard slams into the NE US and prices pop for a bit. If inventory levels are so high though I'm not sure what the price movement will look like.
One analyst thinks the upside is capped due to the massive supply and do agree with the article below. I guess we need time our entries before peak season starts. So i am evaluating every inventory outcome

https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...nergy-equities
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #90
  • Oct 9, 2019 7:41am Oct 9, 2019 7:41am
Double bottom or up for another leg down?
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #91
  • Oct 9, 2019 7:53am Oct 9, 2019 7:53am
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #92
  • Oct 9, 2019 11:20am Oct 9, 2019 11:20am
Quoting Ll1979
Double bottom or up for another leg down? {image}
make or break
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #93
  • Oct 9, 2019 2:56pm Oct 9, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting Ll1979
Double bottom or up for another leg down? {image}
I think we will bounce back off the low level later this week. However things could interrupt that pattern, for example the inclement cold weather expected in the northern US
  • #94
  • Oct 9, 2019 6:15pm Oct 9, 2019 6:15pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} One analyst thinks the upside is capped due to the massive supply and do agree with the article below. I guess we need time our entries before peak season starts. So i am evaluating every inventory outcome https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...nergy-equities
How do you evaluate the inventories? Do you use a template and update it regularly? Or do you have more of a free form reading and/or write up to wrap your head around the levels?
  • #95
  • Oct 9, 2019 9:01pm Oct 9, 2019 9:01pm
I feel like this guy right now as it relates to my NatGas trades:
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  • #96
  • Oct 9, 2019 11:46pm Oct 9, 2019 11:46pm
Quoting C8H18
I feel like this guy right now as it relates to my NatGas trades: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNYNMM0hXXY
I wasn't trading Nat Gas at the time, but there is nothing in the charts from around Sep 2018 and after to suggest it would have been prudent to be naked short NG.

There is little to suggest it would be a good idea to be long NG at the moment. This, of course, may change any time for the nimble.
  • #97
  • Oct 10, 2019 12:05am Oct 10, 2019 12:05am
Quoting LloydOz
{quote} I wasn't trading Nat Gas at the time, but there is nothing in the charts from around Sep 2018 and after to suggest it would have been prudent to be naked short NG. There is little to suggest it would be a good idea to be long NG at the moment. This, of course, may change any time for the nimble.
I’ve always been very wary of these options selling CTAs. The odds are in your favor selling options so it’s not too hard to build a track record, but there is a big risk of eventually blowing up like this guy did. I’m not sure how many investors really understand that.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #98
  • Oct 10, 2019 2:00am Oct 10, 2019 2:00am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} How do you evaluate the inventories? Do you use a template and update it regularly? Or do you have more of a free form reading and/or write up to wrap your head around the levels?
I use multiple resources for that

  1. EIA weekly reports (basic forecast vs release comparison)
  2. read reports
  3. EIA info
  4. storage reports -> http://www.jpcapitalmarkets.com/dash...as-inventories

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #99
  • Oct 10, 2019 2:28am Oct 10, 2019 2:28am
This picture of Natural GAS storage VS 7 year average storage explains the 2018 nov rally very well.

  1. storage levels were below 7 year average and 7 year range
  2. winter kicks in
  3. demand "surplus" supply -> price goes sky high

2019 charts showing a different story and if we don't get extreme winters price will not move to the 4 dollars levels i guess.

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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #100
  • Oct 10, 2019 9:04am Oct 10, 2019 9:04am
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
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