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The Secret to Success and profitable trading - What is it?

  • #361
  • Oct 5, 2019 8:34am Oct 5, 2019 8:34am
Quoting asgcorp
Good advice, overall yes, EURUSD is a dead market. Only large operators (inter-bank) are making money by writing put/call options and collecting premiums here. On GNZ though - hardly you'd find a reputable operation with spreads lower than 2-4 points for GNZ. Also some shops require 40-60 point SL for GNZ, they won't let you put in a lower SL. Finally, GNZ is a lot different to GU. It frequently moves during asian session due to activity in NZDUSD. Overall, I'd recommend sticking to GU, GNZ is for advanced traders only. Also liquidity is pretty...
Hi Asgcorp

Yes you can get good prices on most pairs, let me tell you how its possible. IC Markets Raw spreads on GBPNZD are normally around 1.8 to 2.2 pips during the asia session.
So not great I agree.

BUT

Wait to the London session when price breakouts of a range and starts eating a away at Liquidity. This is the only time I trade manually during the Happy hour.
The market is controlled by a Algo that just preys on stop loss orders and within this zone, spread size drops as low as 0.5 pips for brief periods but normally under 1 pip. Trading here is very cheap and very profitable.
Personally I don't use stop loss, I am certainly not going to add to this liquidity pool like the rest of the foolish traders ( I'm a Scalper )
I do hedge if needed when I stuff up.

Take a look -
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #362
  • Oct 5, 2019 8:50am Oct 5, 2019 8:50am
lol. great point on SL, Rick. I agree with you. I don't get all those idiots who publish their TE's on MyFxBook.
Pretty much they put out all the order flow data out for free. lmao.

Normally in US stock market large operators buy this data from brokers, that's a big business in fact.
  • #363
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:25am Oct 5, 2019 10:25am
Quoting asgcorp
Good advice, overall yes, EURUSD is a dead market. Only large operators (inter-bank) are making money by writing put/call options and collecting premiums here. On GNZ though - hardly you'd find a reputable operation with spreads lower than 2-4 points for GNZ. Also some shops require 40-60 point SL for GNZ, they won't let you put in a lower SL. Finally, GNZ is a lot different to GU. It frequently moves during asian session due to activity in NZDUSD. Overall, I'd recommend sticking to GU, GNZ is for advanced traders only. Also liquidity is pretty...
EurUSd is a dead instrument ?! There's little money in that pair ?!


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  • #364
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:28am Oct 5, 2019 10:28am
yeah, it's a lateral/frozen market. here's the weekly range for EU/GA. Feel the difference.
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  • #365
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:37am Oct 5, 2019 10:37am
Quoting asgcorp
yeah, it's a lateral/frozen market. here's the weekly range for EU/GA. Feel the difference. {image} {image}
We all know some pairs have biggest ranges, but to say that eurusd is dead just because has a smaller range and there is no money to make in that pair is a big difference. In downtrend since 2018.

.... look at this beautiful 15m structure $$$$

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  • #366
  • Oct 5, 2019 3:19pm Oct 5, 2019 3:19pm
This is such a useless bragpost, I can't believe I even wasted more than a minute of my time reading it. No new knowledge shared here, just stroking of one's ego.
  • #367
  • Oct 5, 2019 4:10pm Oct 5, 2019 4:10pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Alphadude There's little money in that pair, don't be fooled by thinking low spread costs means higher profits. That pair is a lame duck. You can't go wrong trading GBPUSD, nice movement with good returns. I actually like the returns on GBPNZD (Beast) better and if you trade it during the London session, the spread can come down to 0.06 pips. This pair moves around 170 pips on a average day compared to EURUSD which is only around 60. My holding sometimes can be crazy. It I am trading a grind within a Liquidity zone, anywhere from 5 seconds...
Quite true; Euro is dead.

I am testing George method at the moment. I did well in visual backtest (manualt rading). however sometimes you get i the wrong side of the grind; especially during NY session. So perhaps it is better to avoid NY all together.

How do you get out of a bad basket; especially if the day range went above 100s?
  • #368
  • Oct 5, 2019 4:13pm Oct 5, 2019 4:13pm
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} EurUSd is a dead instrument ?! There's little money in that pair ?! {image}
for whatever reason; most of my algos; that made good $$$ in past years; stopped working since early 2019. Not sure what is going on with EURUSD; but I have seen this bad volatility year in 2014.

If you are a discretionary trader; you can adapt quickly to it. Algos is hard to adapt.
  • #369
  • Oct 5, 2019 4:34pm Oct 5, 2019 4:34pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} for whatever reason; most of my algos; that made good $$$ in past years; stopped working since early 2019. Not sure what is going on with EURUSD; but I have seen this bad volatility year in 2014. If you are a discretionary trader; you can adapt quickly to it. Algos is hard to adapt.
Alpha, look at that 15m chart as example.
The simple technique of S/R trading give you money.
K.I.S.S.

How can this be dead.
If need insert one MA and one oscillator to see better.


Lots of ways:
Trade in the 15m time frame with a higher time frame as a guide.
Or trade directly from the 15m time frame as a guide.
Or at the time of the entry go the 1m time frame and trade.
Etc...

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  • #370
  • Oct 5, 2019 4:44pm Oct 5, 2019 4:44pm
Whats up guys, just thought i'd put my imput here. I've been trading for a little over a year now and im still not profitable.
However i am break even, i win some, i lose some.
I have a somewhat good understanding of price action, and understand how to use lower time frames to identify entries.

However these are the things I believe which are stopping me from getting profitable.
1. Identifying trends - Do you guys look at the big swings or the little swings in the big swings?
2. More advanced price action - (What i mean by this is hard to explain) There are points on charts which do not make sense to me, yet people speak about them like they are an obvious movement? Example in attached picture.

I seem to have hit 'THE WALL'
I cant seem to find new information on price action, most people are just trying to sell you some bs to make money off newbies.
I get told i just need to look at charts to try and understand how it moves; which i understand how this will help, and i do try to do this yet what is the point if i dont have a friend or a mentor who will explain bits to me.
Im just looking for somebody to give me a gentle shove back on the tracks.
Thanks
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  • #371
  • Oct 5, 2019 5:09pm Oct 5, 2019 5:09pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} for whatever reason; most of my algos; that made good $$$ in past years; stopped working since early 2019. Not sure what is going on with EURUSD; but I have seen this bad volatility year in 2014. If you are a discretionary trader; you can adapt quickly to it. Algos is hard to adapt.
Machine learning? AI?

Machine learning is the scientific study of algorithms and statistical models that computer systems use to perform a specific task without using explicit instructions, relying on patterns and inference instead. It is seen as a subset of artificial intelligence.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #372
  • Oct 5, 2019 5:12pm Oct 5, 2019 5:12pm
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} Alpha, look at that 15m chart as example. The simple technique of S/R trading give you money. K.I.S.S. How can this be dead. If need insert one MA and one oscillator to see better. Lots of ways: Trade in the 15m time frame with a higher time frame as a guide. Or trade directly from the 15m time frame as a guide. Or at the time of the entry go the 1m time frame and trade. Etc...
good point. 15m always have something to trade on.

i am trading 5m and 15m using S&R manually, george TMA style, but without martingale.

are you discretionary or algos?
  • #373
  • Oct 5, 2019 5:14pm Oct 5, 2019 5:14pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Machine learning? AI? Machine learning is the scientific study of algorithms and statistical models that computer systems use to perform a specific task without using explicit instructions, relying on patterns and inference instead. It is seen as a subset of artificial intelligence.
have you found success with machine learning?

i tried NN before but with mo success. the models tends to fail in out of sample a lot. gave it up at the end.
  • #374
  • Oct 5, 2019 5:20pm Oct 5, 2019 5:20pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} good point. 15m always have something to trade on. i am trading 5m and 15m using S&R manually, george TMA style, but without martingale. are you discretionary or algos?
Discretionary, with a trading plan
Have a good weekend
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  • #375
  • Edited 5:51pm Oct 5, 2019 5:36pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} Quite true; Euro is dead. I am testing George method at the moment. I did well in visual backtest (manualt rading). however sometimes you get i the wrong side of the grind; especially during NY session. So perhaps it is better to avoid NY all together. How do you get out of a bad basket; especially if the day range went above 100s?
Hi Alpha

George asked us to spend hours and hours of our time viewing highs and lows of historical charts to look for price action REVERSALS.
I did the work then developed a trading plan to trade this method.

I never add additional trades to a losing basket. If it runs on from my entry point, I hedge and walk away the pair, never trying to guess the next turning point.
I have lost count of the times I have tried to close hedge in profit when I thought it had reached a new turning point. Here it can run on some more and then I need to hedge again for a even bigger draw down. I wait till reversal is confirmed before I take profit on hedge. All we need is a 15 pip run and we are in profit A few hours later.
The money is made when you can establish whether the move from breakout is coming to point of exhaustion. I look for wide ranging candles at the end of the move that breaks a TARGET with SPEED.
I also use TMA settings optimised for that pair that highlights an unexpected spike more than the grind should allow. The Algo running this move has restrains and obeys a code that has defined parameters.
So I am like a traffic cop on the side of the road with a speed gun, tape measure and notebook full of naked pictures (pics of spikes not girls).

Good Luck
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #376
  • Oct 5, 2019 6:48pm Oct 5, 2019 6:48pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} have you found success with machine learning? i tried NN before but with mo success. the models tends to fail in out of sample a lot. gave it up at the end.
I was merely making a suggestion. Seems like there are those who have found success with it.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #377
  • Edited 8:13pm Oct 5, 2019 8:03pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} I was merely making a suggestion. Seems like there are those who have found success with it.
i doubt it.

2 years ago i attended a tradetechfx conference in Barcelona, a hedge fund team presented machine learning stuff and AI and how sexy it is.

after the preso, i spoken personally to the presenter, and asked him if he has made any profit from AI.

he said they dont use it for trading yet, analytics only. after few years of researching. i thought so. you should have seen the crowd and how excited they were. i was like, if they only know the truth! the presenter was merely making himself look better to his boss, and his firm look better to its clients. nothing more!

btw, i am specialized in AI. i know it does not work. at least from my experience. if anybody talking AI in trading, i usually turn 180 degrees and run for my life. lol

nothing beats a KISS. a chart, a mouse, few S&R lines, order entry screen, and off you go.

human brain is created by God. it has true intelligence. no other creature has it but human. use it. feed it some candkesticks, and let it do its magic. pattern recognition at its best.

the best pip harvester is the human brain.

why do you think there 2 pilots on a plane. even drones has pilots.
  • #378
  • Oct 5, 2019 8:04pm Oct 5, 2019 8:04pm
Jarico 313--You asked " Why did the market turn higher "at the particular point on your chart that you designated. Before I get into a detailed analysis there are a few things you should be aware of. (1) I am price action purist.I do not believe the market has a memory that extends back more than a few bars ( not candles ) from the current bar ( the action bar ) I do not believe in indicators , pivot points support and/or resistance levels Gann waves, Renko charts, fractal or fibonacci lines and or charts. I do not believe :the market is manipulated by a cadre of fat cat big traders whose express purpose is to separate the small trader from his/her bankroll. I do believe in the following metrics of market activity ( these are measurements not indicators): Bollinger Bands (20,2) (noticeably missing from your chart ) SMA 50 and 8 .There are a few other equally outrageous opinions I hold that I will not burden you with as they are not material to your question. To get to the point---------------- On the 4hr. chart the 1300 action bar of 7/31 split the 20,2 BBand setting up a possible reversal within the next 5 bars.It also triggered a trend change from the prior neutral zone from which it emerged.The 0500 action bar of 8/1 confirmed the reversal by indicating to me a further reversal of the new trend that commenced with the 8/31 bar hence the sharp rally that ensued.---I realize that this explanation is somewhat sketchy and presents as many questions as it does answers. A more complete answer would be too voluminous for this post and my own time, however if you have any specific questions feel free to PM me and will respond as time permits, Good luck----EB
  • #379
  • Oct 5, 2019 10:56pm Oct 5, 2019 10:56pm
This is the sercret
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  • #380
  • Oct 6, 2019 6:06am Oct 6, 2019 6:06am
Jack of all master of none......
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -299
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