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The Swamp

  • #43,601
  • Oct 2, 2019 9:34pm Oct 2, 2019 9:34pm
10/3/2019 EurUsd Levels... next to print 0965 or 0943....

RU R3 ----------1.1019
WP R1 ----------1.1003
FP R3 ----------1.1001
RU R2 ----------1.0992
FP R2 ----------1.0978
FP R1 ----------1.0965
MP PP ----------1.0965
WP PP ----------1.0957
RU S1 ----------1.0943
FP PP ----------1.0942
RU S2 ----------1.0927
RU R1 ----------1.0926
FP S1 ----------1.0919
WP S1 ----------1.0911
FP S2 ----------1.0906
RU S3 ----------1.0899
  • #43,602
  • Oct 2, 2019 9:50pm Oct 2, 2019 9:50pm
10/3/2019 Uchf levels, next to print 9995 or 9941...

MP R2 ----------1.0039
FP R2 ----------1.0038
RU R2 ----------1.0026
FP R1 ----------1.0013
WP R3 ----------1.0006
RU R1 ----------0.9997
MP R1 ----------0.9995
FP PP ----------0.9972
WP R2 ----------0.9966
WP R1 ----------0.9941
RU S1 ----------0.9940
FP S1 ----------0.9932
MP PP ----------0.9922
RU S2 ----------0.9911
FP S2 ----------0.9907
WP PP ----------0.9901
  • #43,603
  • Edited Oct 3, 2019 1:33am Oct 2, 2019 10:02pm | Edited Oct 3, 2019 1:33am
Quoting mars1
{quote} Why?
Turned from My level
Pending BUY
moved it up a bit to 9421
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 4 KB
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #43,604
  • Oct 2, 2019 10:49pm Oct 2, 2019 10:49pm
Quoting AirmanFF
{quote} Hello. Would you qualify this as the handle and cup pattern ? Ty. https://invst.ly/g7w8i
looks like it could be.. the bottoms are rounded usually not V shaped.. it is rounded although not perfect.. it looks like its already 1/2 way in the move. your probably late, watch the video i posted. go to youtube and search "cup and handle". there's many videos..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,605
  • Oct 2, 2019 10:56pm Oct 2, 2019 10:56pm
Quoting Boulder
10/3/2019 Uchf levels, next to print 9995 or 9941... MP R2 ----------1.0039 FP R2 ----------1.0038 RU R2 ----------1.0026 FP R1 ----------1.0013 WP R3 ----------1.0006 RU R1 ----------0.9997 MP R1 ----------0.9995 FP PP ----------0.9972 WP R2 ----------0.9966 WP R1 ----------0.9941 RU S1 ----------0.9940 FP S1 ----------0.9932 MP PP ----------0.9922 RU S2 ----------0.9911 FP S2 ----------0.9907 WP PP ----------0.9901
getting some sleep.. GN
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,606
  • Oct 3, 2019 12:30am Oct 3, 2019 12:30am
Morning

Got some milk (swap)
but still short.

My idea is that USD can get some strength near today ISM non manuf number that probably will not be as bad as people expect.

About NFP I've said ADP could be wrong we will see if Friday jobs is really that bad.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,607
  • Oct 3, 2019 12:45am Oct 3, 2019 12:45am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Actually I think the answer is probably more complex. Most people forget that you have a 95% win rate. That means out of 100 trades, 95 are winners, 5 are losers. Assuming each win is 10 pips, You would have a 950 pip positive. The 5 losing trades can be 150 pips loss each and you would still be a net winner. I doubt the average trader can take a 100 pip loss even if they use small lot sizes. Just pointing it out for people out there who might be following you word for word...
another example here.
I've watch some accounts yesterday

One was very interesting, Over 18 months account was from 30.000 eur to 90.000 eur.
Maximum DD was about 36% but it was this august with all the HK problems stocks were down hard and overnight on some moves went really bad but did not see that DD only for that day

Interesting is on that particular account there were no SL ever. but position are very small. currently DD is 11%

So even on small or big accounts while I do consider unprofessional to get above 10. or 5% position sizing is most important thing.

All DD numbers are calculated on the initial deposit of 30K - on the actual amount was 20% maximum i think. I will try to put it on some statistic on weekend or next week.

The reason is with all the volatility in the last 2 years i find the results very good and there were no SL. Don't want to let you think it's something to copy or promote an idea of not using SL. But I think on 2 years of volatility we can see how important is position sizing. Maybe the whole range in the last 2 years helped a little bit.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,608
  • Oct 3, 2019 1:04am Oct 3, 2019 1:04am
1h close has to be above 950 for EU to continue up. below we can se 940
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,609
  • Oct 3, 2019 1:53am Oct 3, 2019 1:53am
Short USD/CHF will add on every 25/50 pips -
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,610
  • Oct 3, 2019 1:57am Oct 3, 2019 1:57am
Quoting DMA Trader
Short USD/CHF will add on every 25/50 pips -
Interesting how that pair has been flying.
  • #43,611
  • Oct 3, 2019 1:58am Oct 3, 2019 1:58am
Quoting DMA Trader
1h close has to be above 950 for EU to continue up. below we can se 940
it seems like we are closing below already touching 940
ESF also at the high of the last 12 hours.

Can't find any news
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,612
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:01am Oct 3, 2019 2:01am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Turned from My level Pending BUY moved it up a bit to 9421 {image}
Triggered
SHORT OUT with 14+
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 2 KB
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #43,613
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:01am Oct 3, 2019 2:01am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Interesting how that pair has been flying.
chatter about new cuts and intervention. position will not be big and can hedge my EU short - but - over a few months we all now how intervention works

And CHF is famous for their interventions and how it worked
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,614
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:02am Oct 3, 2019 2:02am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Interesting how that pair has been flying.
Feels like Swiss interference
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #43,615
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:09am Oct 3, 2019 2:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} chatter about new cuts and intervention. position will not be big and can hedge my EU short - but - over a few months we all now how intervention works And CHF is famous for their interventions and how it worked
I may just wait to sell it higher. At this rate DR1 at 10071 isn't far away. I dont know how chatter about US rate cut should fly Swissy up. Again, all this rate cut, rate cut nonsense talk is becoming irritating. I'm yet to catch a trade for the day except closing my EU short a few minutes ago in some profit.
  • #43,616
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:13am Oct 3, 2019 2:13am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Interesting how that pair has been flying.
Swiss govt manipulate their currency , they openly intervened the fx market..
sell strength in falling markets, and buy weakness in rising markets.
  • #43,617
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:15am Oct 3, 2019 2:15am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} chatter about new cuts and intervention. position will not be big and can hedge my EU short - but - over a few months we all now how intervention works And CHF is famous for their interventions and how it worked
imho this dumb trades of intervention never work they just attract bigger and bigger players until they break it
and dumb trades like this are before some major events.

look at oil and think about "the drone" thing and then we crash on worst economic data. it can go up to 1.03 maybe it will still come down
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,618
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:26am Oct 3, 2019 2:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} imho this dumb trades of intervention never work they just attract bigger and bigger players until they break it and dumb trades like this are before some major events. look at oil and think about "the drone" thing and then we crash on worst economic data. it can go up to 1.03 maybe it will still come down
yes, eurusd might go up from here BUT it will also most likely go down from here

as for oil yes it can go to over 100 or it will go below 50
  • #43,619
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:29am Oct 3, 2019 2:29am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} yes, eurusd might go up from here BUT it will also most likely go down from here as for oil yes it can go to over 100 or it will go below 50
great analysis..
sell strength in falling markets, and buy weakness in rising markets.
  • #43,620
  • Oct 3, 2019 2:30am Oct 3, 2019 2:30am
GBP quick 22 pips 68 to 91 ares. Day target achived
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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