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Some big down moves imminent on US/Euro indices?

  • #21
  • Sep 23, 2019 8:39am Sep 23, 2019 8:39am
No surprise to me to see prices falling to start the week continuing where they left off on Friday. Short positions hoping for some big pips this week, I think the weekly 100sma on Dow could be re-visited over the course of the next week or so, and this is a major support level currently @ 25,400 or thereabouts, roughly 1,500 pips from the current price. For intra-dayers, the H4 200ema @ 26,686 looks to be a likely target today if the price can push below the 100sma which is currently holding as support @ 26,834.

Quite a few traders I know have been very bullish leading into this turn south, believing, wrongly I believe, that it is all up to the Fed and that the interest rate cuts were bound to send the markets higher, but price action and solid technical analysis seldom lie, and as retail traders we are always far better off trading only what we see on our charts irrespective of what is happening beyond them.

My latest Dow weekly chart, showing last week's very strong shooting star candle, and possible future projections.
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  • #22
  • Sep 24, 2019 12:41pm Sep 24, 2019 12:41pm
Quoting cat
No surprise to me to see prices falling to start the week continuing where they left off on Friday. Short positions hoping for some big pips this week, I think the weekly 100sma on Dow could be re-visited over the course of the next week or so, and this is a major support level currently @ 25,400 or thereabouts, roughly 1,500 pips from the current price. For intra-dayers, the H4 200ema @ 26,686 looks to be a likely target today if the price can push below the 100sma which is currently holding as support @ 26,834. Quite a few traders I know...
H4 200ema pretty much hit today and looking good for much lower levels as posted above.
  • #23
  • Oct 2, 2019 9:02am Oct 2, 2019 9:02am
finally we are starting to see prices roll over.....good call on the weekly there cat!
  • #24
  • Oct 2, 2019 9:54am Oct 2, 2019 9:54am
Price broke the H4 100sma by a bit, but not by much, before as expected, turning south for the next significant leg down. Now, the weekly 200ema around 25,360 is in sight.
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  • #25
  • Oct 3, 2019 6:02am Oct 3, 2019 6:02am
That’s why I always pay attention to your posts , I’ve found your timing to be spot on. We appreciate you cat. Today expecting range trading before next move lower at mid to end of next week according to previous strong market sell-offs
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #26
  • Oct 3, 2019 9:15am Oct 3, 2019 9:15am
Might gun for 25119-24943 range... Let's see.
Careful shorting though after big moves, could rebound.
  • #27
  • Nov 7, 2019 8:46am Nov 7, 2019 8:46am
I rarely post these days, but when I see something which to me looks potentially very significant, I do.

US stocks into new highs now, and some traders/investors are confident that prices on the big indecis are going to keep on climbing, with Dow now looking to hit 30,000 and beyond, whilst others are looking for signs of a possible top. In truth, no one knows, but I am watching the 28,000 - 28,500 level on Dow, a potentially very important resistance level indeed.

Updates will follow if and when we approach this level,

Trade safe!
  • #28
  • Nov 7, 2019 8:53am Nov 7, 2019 8:53am
Quoting ensale
That’s why I always pay attention to your posts , I’ve found your timing to be spot on. We appreciate you cat. Today expecting range trading before next move lower at mid to end of next week according to previous strong market sell-offs
Thanks ensale..means a lot!
  • #29
  • Nov 7, 2019 10:35am Nov 7, 2019 10:35am
Quoting cat
I rarely post these days, but when I see something which to me looks potentially very significant, I do. US stocks into new highs now, and some traders/investors are confident that prices on the big indecis are going to keep on climbing, with Dow now looking to hit 30,000 and beyond, whilst others are looking for signs of a possible top. In truth, no one knows, but I am watching the 28,000 - 28,500 level on Dow, a potentially very important resistance level indeed. Updates will follow if and when we approach this level, Trade safe!
S&P sets the tone, not the Dow IMO. 3100 in sight, 3200 would be a big level for most. We are already in crazy town but that's the reality we live in. But it really feels like 2007...
Trade safe
  • #30
  • Nov 7, 2019 12:52pm Nov 7, 2019 12:52pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} S&P sets the tone, not the Dow IMO. 3100 in sight, 3200 would be a big level for most. We are already in crazy town but that's the reality we live in. But it really feels like 2007... Trade safe
I'm reading my weekly charts, nothing more, so irrespective of whether the Dow or S&P sets the tone, my Dow weekly is showing me the potentially very significant resistance levels posted above, whereas my S&P weekly chart shows the price already having reached it, though the pattern often breaks putting in higher highs before snapping back hard. Monthly charts super bullish for both, so we'll have to see.
  • #31
  • Edited 8:28am Nov 9, 2019 8:13am | Edited 8:28am
Just to add to my Nov 7th post above, for Dax traders, I have Dax sitting at a potentially critical resistance level at it's current price, so I would not be at all surprised to see it coming down next week. If it does push higher than Friday's high of 13,300, then it should challenge or top the previous high of 13,600, but should the latter occur, and we get new highs on the Dax, I will not necessarily see this as a bullish sign, because new highs will set up a very strong diversion pattern with MACD on the monthly chart, and as long as this remains in place, there will always be a strong possibility of a top and an aggressive change of direction. Having said that however, the green trend line is a long way above at around 14,500 currently, and the price, having broken the previous high, could then head for that. I'm also going to be watching the previous high level as this will put Dax on a double top. Monthly Dax chart attached.
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  • #32
  • Nov 13, 2019 7:31am Nov 13, 2019 7:31am
Starting to look like bearish macd crossover and bearish rsi on daily on dax and dow...

although, it may need to go up first before selling down properly
  • #33
  • Nov 13, 2019 8:06am Nov 13, 2019 8:06am
Quoting cat
Just to add to my Nov 7th post above, for Dax traders, I have Dax sitting at a potentially critical resistance level at it's current price, so I would not be at all surprised to see it coming down next week. If it does push higher than Friday's high of 13,300, then it should challenge or top the previous high of 13,600, but should the latter occur, and we get new highs on the Dax, I will not necessarily see this as a bullish sign, because new highs will set up a very strong diversion pattern with MACD on the monthly chart, and as long as this remains...
This is from a solely Technical view. Sentiment and fundamental data in Germany much more indicate a further bull market, especially since trump avoids to put tariffs on german car makers and if the us China talks end successfully.
  • #34
  • Nov 13, 2019 1:03pm Nov 13, 2019 1:03pm
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} This is from a solely Technical view. Sentiment and fundamental data in Germany much more indicate a further bull market, especially since trump avoids to put tariffs on german car makers and if the us China talks end successfully.
I pay no attention to fundamentals, as they cannot be trusted. So called experts were talking the US stock market to the moon even as it was beginning to fall in 2007/8.

I posted this elsewhere on 7th Nov. Danger level here refers to the zone within which I see a very real possibility of this recent bull market in stocks coming to an end. The price is nearly there.

As always, I just put my analysis out there based upon what I see. I could be right,m and I could be wrong. We will find out soon. If I'm right, then the price could return back to the weekly 100sma shown on the chart.
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  • #35
  • Nov 14, 2019 6:30am Nov 14, 2019 6:30am
Quoting cat
{quote} I pay no attention to fundamentals, as they cannot be trusted. So called experts were talking the US stock market to the moon even as it was beginning to fall in 2007/8. I posted this elsewhere on 7th Nov. Danger level here refers to the zone within which I see a very real possibility of this recent bull market in stocks coming to an end. The price is nearly there. As always, I just put my analysis out there based upon what I see. I could be right,m and I could be wrong. We will find out soon. If I'm right, then the price could return back...
Yes, you are right - considering the weekly or even monthly chart, the trend could come to an end: In several weeks or months.
I just mean there is no sign of reversal these common days...
  • #36
  • Nov 14, 2019 9:16am Nov 14, 2019 9:16am
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} Yes, you are right - considering the weekly or even monthly chart, the trend could come to an end: In several weeks or months. I just mean there is no sign of reversal these common days...
But I have a very clear potential resistance level on the weekly roughly within the zone posted above, so I'm waiting to see what happens if it gets there. My monthly gives me reason to doubt it however, as contrary to 2007/8, my moving averages are all in their correct order which to me signifies that a major market collapse is not on the cards this year, but maybe next. Anyhow, I am an intra-day trader and do these longer term predictions for fun, so really, I care little whether prices are rising or falling, though I do have a lot of friends who are investors, and so I do my best to help them out.
  • #37
  • Nov 15, 2019 3:12am Nov 15, 2019 3:12am
Quoting cat
{quote} But I have a very clear potential resistance level on the weekly roughly within the zone posted above, so I'm waiting to see what happens if it gets there. My monthly gives me reason to doubt it however, as contrary to 2007/8, my moving averages are all in their correct order which to me signifies that a major market collapse is not on the cards this year, but maybe next. Anyhow, I am an intra-day trader and do these longer term predictions for fun, so really, I care little whether prices are rising or falling, though I do have a lot of...
Dax is close to all time high, german economy avoided recession, trade talks phase 1 is close to be accomplished...
So yeah, if UK vote goes smoothly, I think a drawdown in market won't happen before 2020.
But.who knows?!
As more people are talking about 'the end of the stock market trend', the more its obvious to me that we are In a trend for now.
Because only very few people anticipate a reversal...
  • #38
  • Nov 17, 2019 3:34pm Nov 17, 2019 3:34pm
So, the Dow has entered my Danger Level posted above. Watch this 28,000- 28,500 level very carefully, because if there is going to be a major reversal, my calculations tell me it is going to be within this level, and it could be this coming week. I have no idea what is going to hit us on the news front, but if I'm right, it will be pinned on something. All I can say is that on the weekly chart, I have a massive potential topping signal. I will not disclose what this is, though some of you will already know, so if you are exposed to the long side, be vigilant.

I will update if the price turns south, or shows signs of doing so on the lower timeframes.

Trade safe!!

  • #39
  • Nov 18, 2019 8:19am Nov 18, 2019 8:19am
So here's my first update following yesterday's post. Pay attention on the Dow to that early strong positive candle at 07.16 UK time, as it has all the hallmarks of a death throe candle - sudden and aggressive acceleration in the price in a bull market followed by a drop. it's still early, but the price has entered my ' Danger Zone ' ( see above chart ) and so this is where I am watching for a potential top. Atm I have the price sitting on my 15m 100 simple moving average support.

I'll update again as things develop.
  • #40
  • Nov 19, 2019 9:43am Nov 19, 2019 9:43am
Dow pushed higher this morning, but has now snapped back off of very strong MACD diversion on H1, and now trading below yesterday's low, which is significant.

This price activity is exactly what I was expecting within my 28,000-28,500 danger zone, and although it's still early days, I think there is a strong possibility that stock markets are peaking this week. I think we may know by Friday.
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