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The Swamp

  • #43,381
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:30pm Oct 1, 2019 11:30pm
Quoting DMA Trader
I just saw that October is worst in prediction on NFP over the last 10 years 8 in 10 cases was below estimates.
both cases ISM was good and above estimates. so no reading in October with BAD and below estimate on ISM and a good NFP

also ADP is more volatile there were times when ADP in October reading was good and NFP went bad.

just some stats.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,382
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:39pm Oct 1, 2019 11:39pm
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/fina.../index.en.html

The rate reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area

 

  1. Rate -0.549
  2. Reference date01-10-2019



Euro short-term rate (€STR)

The euro short-term rate (€STR) is published on each TARGET2 business day based on transactions conducted and settled on the previous TARGET2 business day.
The ECB published the €STR for the first time on 2 October 2019, reflecting trading activity on 1 October 2019.

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,383
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:42pm Oct 1, 2019 11:42pm
USD/CHF on month and q closed higher (bullish close). It tested the mpp on day 1 (.9921) of the new month. month average range is only 274 pips. 1/2 is 137, There is a good chance pa reaches 1/2 mar at 1.0058, full 1.0195. Week has R at 1.0036. 1.0036 has to be beat to get to 1.0058. A week close above 1.0036 may be needed to rise much beyond.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,384
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:45pm Oct 1, 2019 11:45pm
Quoting DMA Trader
$1 TRILLION in new debt over the course of the 2019 Fiscal Year. Statistics GDP$21.345 trillion (2019 est.) Precisely one year ago today, the US federal government opened Fiscal Year 2019 with a total debt level of $21.6 trillion: 1'st October the start of the government’s 2020 Fiscal Year. And the total debt is now $22,622,684,674,364.43 The stock market reached an all-time high. Real estate prices reached an all-time high. Corporate profits are at record highs. Personal income is at a record high. Unemployment is hovering near an all-time low....
Recession has followed all tax cuts since the 1980ies. Usually within 2 years. Deficit grows too..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,385
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:56pm Oct 1, 2019 11:56pm
eu 30 min bear side.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,386
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:58pm Oct 1, 2019 11:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
eu 30 min bear side.
1h also - line in the sand would be last resistance 916/920
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,387
  • Oct 2, 2019 12:07am Oct 2, 2019 12:07am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 1h also - line in the sand would be last resistance 916/920
eu 1h bearish divergence a few h ago,, i was sleeping..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,388
  • Oct 2, 2019 12:34am Oct 2, 2019 12:34am
Short USD/CHF - can't believe CHF doeesn't begin to act like a safe heaven with so much risk in the place

ESF going trough supports. JPY gaining strenght
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,389
  • Oct 2, 2019 12:37am Oct 2, 2019 12:37am
My Longs on CHF's are holding well
  • #43,390
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:04am Oct 2, 2019 1:04am
I am increasing exposure against the USD. could be a very risky move. and lose most of yesterday gains if all jobs come better.

on the other side USX begins being again bullish on all time frames
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,391
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:16am Oct 2, 2019 1:16am
Quoting DMA Trader
Short USD/CHF - can't believe CHF doeesn't begin to act like a safe heaven with so much risk in the place ESF going trough supports. JPY gaining strenght
ok so chatter about FX intervention and rate cut this year.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,392
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:20am Oct 2, 2019 1:20am
Quoting DMA Trader
Short USD/CHF - can't believe CHF doeesn't begin to act like a safe heaven with so much risk in the place ESF going trough supports. JPY gaining strenght
usdx and usd/chf closed the month and the quarter higher (bullish). usd 100 looks to be tested this quarter or month.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,393
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:20am Oct 2, 2019 1:20am
Quoting DMA Trader
Short USD/CHF - can't believe CHF doeesn't begin to act like a safe heaven with so much risk in the place ESF going trough supports. JPY gaining strenght
look at CHFJPY on H1
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #43,394
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:27am Oct 2, 2019 1:27am
Quoting axecap
{quote} look at CHFJPY on H1
i posted chart when it was 109 last friday and said if ceiling attract anyone....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYH1.png Size: 58 KB
sell strength in falling markets, and buy weakness in rising markets.
  • #43,395
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:30am Oct 2, 2019 1:30am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I am too tired...Good night.. Gator.. see you here in the morning...
wake up and close shorts )
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,396
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:30am Oct 2, 2019 1:30am
Quoting axecap
{quote} look at CHFJPY on H1
chfjpy would test 105.74 at some point, which means usdjpy would go down and usdchf would go up....
sell strength in falling markets, and buy weakness in rising markets.
  • #43,397
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:34am Oct 2, 2019 1:34am
Quoting htcone
{quote} chfjpy would test 105.74 at some point, which means usdjpy would go down and usdchf would go up....
or trade CHFJPY .......
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #43,398
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:38am Oct 2, 2019 1:38am
2 October 2019

  1. Euro area current account surplus at €311 billion (2.7% of euro area GDP) in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2019, down from €410 billion (3.6% of GDP) a year earlier.
  2. Geographic counterparts: largest bilateral surpluses vis-à-vis the United Kingdom (€155 billion, down from €164 billion a year earlier) and the United States (€137 billion, up from €117 billion), and largest deficit vis-à-vis China (€64 billion, down from €70 billion).


So pressure will increase from US data will be coming this week

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #43,399
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:39am Oct 2, 2019 1:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} let see if this will become a channel.. near the 1.61/.88% {image}
19 hours later, wedge worked.. next try may be 1.0050 ish, possible channel now.. 9990.8 (circled redline) may end up being next s/r. once closes start to respect it..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 34 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #43,400
  • Oct 2, 2019 1:43am Oct 2, 2019 1:43am
Quoting DMA Trader
2 October 2019 Euro area current account surplus at €311 billion (2.7% of euro area GDP) in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2019, down from €410 billion (3.6% of GDP) a year earlier. Geographic...
a weak u.s. economy weighs on others.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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