The One: Price Action and Reaction

SandP 4h

USDCAD

USDMXN

USDCHF

EURUSD

EURJPY weekly chart

Short opportunitys till 114.8
Should the target be reached in the confluence zone a high probabillity long trade setup arises.

GBPJPY Weekly Chart

I agree, that will be a good long setup if EJ drops down to either (or both at the intersection) of those projected LML's that have good CL resonance! In my own "hunt-for-C" charts, I often look for such CL resonance.

Your TradingView chart says "Published", but I see nothing published in your TradingView profile by you since Nov 2017. I take it that you just use it to draw your charts, but don't necessary "post" to share them? Or am I missing something?

Hello Pips,

They are actually not (lower parallels)ML's, which is important because the ML and AR method's differ in their approach even though they are based on the same concept and can even overlap.(You probably know that but it is important to note for inexperienced ML/AR traders)

Care to enlighten me on your "Hunt-for-C)" analyses?

The chart ideas in my TV profile are a reflection of my learning progress, at one point I decided to make my chart ideas private.
They improved and became more complex and refined. Because of personal reasons I left trading for well over a year, now back at it.
To tell you the truth, I hold value in my charts and there are hardly any in depht sources about AR trading on the web.
So actually in honor of this dedicated thread I decided to offer its followers some of the value I was/am seeking out myself.
(sharing some of my chart ideas from time to time)

Keep posting your charts here. Thanks.

From time to time, I have posted about my "hunt for C" analysis and observations. The concept was introduced to me by Tim Morge.

For example, read a few of my posts starting here. Also here. (Search my posts for "hunt for C" and you'll find a few more).

With respect to the EURJPY,Weekly chart you posted, compare it to the following:

The black fork has good hunt-for-C resonance for the ML within the gray circle.
Note that if the black fork matched the slope from A to the early (big) pullback, you can see how the black hunt-for-C pivot would project a lower LML for the C to form. So for this chart, the black ML does not have perfect resonance for all the pivots, but at least they are close, and may offer a decent zone for a pivot-C to hold.

The red fork also has good hunt-for-C resonance along it's ML.

If price comes down to form a (possibly) *new* low and touches the red and/or black LML's, let's see if these hunt-for-C examples play out as such, or get blown away, or ??



For a similar weekly projection example I made a long while back:
Compare the last chart here vs. what actually happened.

The blue fork, which it can be observed, had resonance along it's ML for both an initial low, then as a high, then "sort of" along the ML (at a few OHLC prices) as it rose further before breaking. I do like to see both highs and lows for the best resonance. The blue fork held for many weeks and formed a larger pullback before an eventual new low.

The projected black hunt-for-C line, did not hold when it was eventually hit, although in fairness it was not a new lower-low, and therefore was no longer a canonical (rule-following) lowest low for an Andrews LHL pitchfork point C. Interestingly, though, the "ML" (or "CL" if action/reaction) did play a re-test role if drawn as the red fork. The point-B was adjusted to an earlier pivot to capture the full Action width. The Reaction at red C, also did not hold as a low, but the line clearly held as a high when later retested.



To the above chart, since the black PF C did not hold, then what would be the next hunt-for-C targets based on ML resonance? I've added the green and purple forks. I've no idea if/when either of these far-away lines will come into play long-term, but it illustrates the concept.

I have read your comment and provided links thouroughly, do you also have other charts? displaying methods different from the "Hunt for C" technique. I gues I could just have a look at your posts.

I have read and viewed some of the work put online by Tim Morge, I learned from it but soon felt I needed deeper material.
Maybe I am ignorant, and should have checked out more of his stuff. If you happen to know he has some articles or video's of AR methodology I'd appreciate
if you'd share.

About the Hunt for C method... depending on the level of the trader it can be useful, maybe to have targets to take profit at and also find a potential C.(duh)
To me it seems as a rough method, atleast providing you with a direction to trade in, and then more or less hoping for price to form C.

The core difference however between how I found those RL's in my EURJPY chart was because I adhered to the requirements as set by the AR method.
With Hunting for C, from what I see, the trader picks one or more pivots for his ML placement.

If I may advise you on how to select the pivot for your ML placement: Look for 0-4 CL's or look for multi pivot trend lines(price touched this line at least 3 times).
They are powerful, in fact the 0-4 CL is probably the most powerful trendline I know of.

I believe that if you would only look for such trendlines your C pivot will hit more acturately. But to be honest, it actually is just AR trading by then.
You just use the pitchfork tool to find the RL. And in my mind, Hunt for C is for ML traders who are transitioning or should transition to AR trading.
They have most likely a good understanding for ML trading, they know for example that signals like triggerlines can overlap with modified schiff forks.
They understand all the technical implications provided by ML trading.

This "Hunt for C" is an expantion of one's insight in the markets.
Medianline trading is an advanced trendline method, superior to many existing technical trading methods because they are leading, showcasing
probable direction and exhaustion points. AR trading however, is superior to ML trading, because AR lines lead median lines.

To have a tiny disclaimer though, to each their own if you feel comfortable trading the way you are and are profitable on top of that... stick to it.
Just handing out free advise

I took a look at AUDUSD myself, and preferred to use the monthly chart as there were too many bars for my liking!

Oh great it did not publish two of my charts and these three not even in correct order

First chart

Second

Third

Fourth

The last one was a bonus chart, the weekly. No need to repost that.

Hello everyone, had a bit of some personal things going on, but I should be back posting more often soon. Here is something to practice/review.
SandP 500 Futures 15 minute chart

I could have drawn another sliding parallel (SH) above, but got to the chart late.

One more on AUDUSD,

Sometimes I feel people are not utilizing forks as much as they could.

This is a method where you want to have atleast two opposing forks and using price structure in conjunction with the slope of the fork to measure and project RL's.
I have not yet seen anyone trading forks like this(if you do mention it please, again I might be ignorant hehe), at one time I realized if you have two measured constructs of which the projections intercepts price, then it is like a wall price can not overcome and must make a turn in that area.

I no longer have my focus on this method but it did help me accurately predict turningpoints, it also greatly improved my skill in AR trading.

To all the silent readers of this thread, don't be shy to share your charts !

Cheers

Abe16 has his own PF thread but commented on the hunt-for-C topic here.

He makes interesting points about observing price action, and getting clues from WRB's, zooms, retests, zones, etc. All valid points.

But here's a deep dive into a higher TF of the EUR_FUT/6E chart that includes his focused area ~Apr 2, 2019. (The blue rectangle below).

Admittedly cluttered, but I've drawn and labelled 11 PF's with the same A and B, but differing hunt-for-C targets.

You will notice my (absolutely private!) resonance scoring profile tool that looks for resonance at the potential ML's. I've drawn PF's at the peak scores, even minor peaks. If you study each fork, you can see where the ML of each is "resonating" to various high/low pivot(s). Some peaks occur between A and B. Others between B and the potential C. Both "work", but it may be worth studying the details of which areas work best, along with the size or energy at the pullbacks.

Clearly some of the profile peaks are stronger scores than others -- BUT, my scoring is imperfect, and there are reasons I might add or subtract from a peak to compensate. The scores are based on past bars only, and do not consider what happens at-of-after the point C.

PF 1 is the highest peak score, because of multiple touches to the ML, but it's also extremely steep and therefore not a good candidate for a hunt-for-C, though it was loosely in the area of the second pullback since the peak. It overshot.
PF 2 looks to have caused a small H4 wick pullback then broke.
PF 3, overshot, then retested the PF 3 LML.
PF 4, Another wick pullback, like 2. (Weak score too, so not of much interest).
PF 5, the first reasonably good score to consider, but it did not hold, other than causing a complex pullback.
PF 6, Another weak score, did nothing.
PF 7, Absolutely a good peak score of interest, and it did in fact hold for quite a good pullback. This was the "C" pivot in Abe16's chart. Abe commented that after this C were a couple of good pullbacks with various reasons to go long there. Fine, yes, but this resonance at C was already a good reason to consider jumping in at C, before the WRB's that formed just after it.

PF 8. Weak. Initially may have appeared to be holding with a tiny bar, then zoomed through, actually. Also note that it can't be a hunt-for-C, given the intersection is well above an early lower-low.
PF 9. The WRB, after overshooting, did close on top of it. The LML later served as a retest. And like PF 8, the intersection is higher than the previous low, so not a good hunt-for-C candidate.
PF 10. (Based on a later strong pivot). Did in fact initially held with accuracy, but did overshoot a few pips before a strong pullback.
PF 11. Nothing specific. Sort of like big parallel channels of future bars, but nothing tradeable.



The blue PF, with it's A at "1", is an obvious large degree PF one should be aware of. See below.

First comment, though I didn't mark any, is that the blue B-to-C line has a lot of pivots resonating. (Making this an MPL I suppose, for possible use as a CL, though I didn't consider it as such yet).

An even stronger reason to consider going long at the C pivot for PF 7, and to in fact expect a very good pullback which did occur, would be the perfect touch of the blue ML. (See the blue rectangle at the "small-degree C??" ). The blue UML had two near reactions at the next two blue rectangles.

Using a farther back A pivot moved to "2", see the red PF. Curious that it also had a perfect touch of the red ML, and then a lower near touch again. See pink rectangle. (Not marked, but the red UML also had a couple of close reactions, with some overshoot but not a lot).

The farther back A pivot at "3" would be the black PF. Not much in the way of obvious resonance anywhere.




These illustrate concepts; but historical examples are actually of relatively little interest to me. Far better would be to have more people aware of the concepts, who bring attention to live opportunities that are then tradeable.