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Silent Service Method

  • #16,021
  • Edited 11:09pm Sep 23, 2019 10:53pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Yes, because only an idiot would rather trade their own money instead of someone else's if given the chance. The reality is that the average retail account in the US is 1000 USD, according to some of my contacts in Toronto with one of the larger retail firms in the world. The reality is that NOBODY gets rich trading their own money. Why? Because they don't have enough to start with in order to do so. I would also suggest that if they did - they wouldn't be trading it. Simple math: $50,000. 20 percent per year. Total after ten years, 309k....
Not so fast.

1. "The reality is that NOBODY gets rich trading their own money."
Nobody is a strong word, buddy.

2. "oh shit", you forgot compounding. 1.2^20= 38.34x = almost $2M. Let's say you started with only $10K (not $50K) and spent the rest on your living expenses and whatever and kept working your contractor job or whatever - you could easily survive. $10K*38.4=about $400K. $400K still means you wouldn't need to bother with some weird fake-prop-shop after 10 years. And that's being a total coward with leverage. Your numbers just don't add up to make the point you're making. By the way, 20% a year is rather pathetic for a non-institutional very small size trader. You could've bought a 2X levered S&P 500 ETF and spent the time you spent on trading on masturbation and you would still average 20% a year.

3. "Trading isn't a competition." <- one of the dumbest things I've ever heard. Literally.

4. "It's also not tough." - yeah, that's 95%+ of retail fail.

You can say superdumb stuff like the above that will be eagerly eaten up by the peanut gallery here like some superwisdom but it won't work with me.
  • #16,022
  • Sep 24, 2019 4:54am Sep 24, 2019 4:54am
Quoting ElParcero
{quote} Not so fast. 1. "The reality is that NOBODY gets rich trading their own money." Nobody is a strong word, buddy. 2. "oh shit", you forgot compounding. 1.2^20= 38.34x = almost $2M. Let's say you started with only $10K (not $50K) and spent the rest on your living expenses and whatever and kept working your contractor job or whatever - you could easily survive. $10K*38.4=about $400K. $400K still means you wouldn't need to bother with some weird fake-prop-shop after 10 years. And that's being a total coward with leverage. Your numbers just don't...
Ok. I will 'stop trying' to work with you. Too bad really, it was my life's goal.

More importantly, that pop in the GBP should be a selling opportunity for those of you that are looking to trade currencies.
  • #16,023
  • Sep 24, 2019 6:51am Sep 24, 2019 6:51am
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Ok. I will 'stop trying' to work with you. Too bad really, it was my life's goal. More importantly, that pop in the GBP should be a selling opportunity for those of you that are looking to trade currencies.
Lol, nice stuff CW. Btw, had to be quick with those shorts. Al
  • #16,024
  • Sep 24, 2019 7:10am Sep 24, 2019 7:10am
Quoting mallee
{quote} Lol, nice stuff CW. Btw, had to be quick with those shorts. Al
Actually, I am still in them. I am looking at the longer-term charts....the 1.25 level is the 38.2 Fib, and we are still in a downtrend. That being said - I could always be wrong.
  • #16,025
  • Sep 24, 2019 7:38pm Sep 24, 2019 7:38pm
OK, carry on like you haven't been called out. Scrub. LOL
  • #16,026
  • Sep 24, 2019 8:44pm Sep 24, 2019 8:44pm
Quoting ElParcero
OK, carry on like you haven't been called out. Scrub. LOL
I have been here ten years, and make my living doing all things trading related. I have also forwarded your posts. Have fun with that.
  • #16,027
  • Sep 24, 2019 8:54pm Sep 24, 2019 8:54pm
Anyway, back to the adults.

So here is the chart I was working with mallee. The GBP/JPY has done better than the GBP/USD pair to the downside, as there is more of a global aspect to the pair instead of being influenced by whatever shenanigans the Congress is up to. I also just added, trying to build a larger core position. The aquare was that pop that has since rolled over.

There are a newer group of traders that I work with that went crazy when they heard about the court ruling. However, this is a perfect example of how the longer-term trend simply cannot be traded against, at least not effectively. The reality is that the Brexit situation isn't getting better, and even if they do stay - the EU is a bit of a basket case. So there is no really good short-term outcome for the UK. I also have seen the 135 JPY level as the longer-term 38.2 Fib, and of course a large round figure.

As you know, if you have read the thread, I pay particular attention to these larger areas, such as the 500 pip levels. If it doesn't work, then we simply wait for another opportunity. The idea target will be 130 JPY, but I think that the 131 level is more or less the beginning of a zone of support so I will take profit closer to that level.

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  • #16,028
  • Sep 25, 2019 6:54am Sep 25, 2019 6:54am
Quoting clockwork71
Anyway, back to the adults. So here is the chart I was working with mallee. The GBP/JPY has done better than the GBP/USD pair to the downside, as there is more of a global aspect to the pair instead of being influenced by whatever shenanigans the Congress is up to. I also just added, trying to build a larger core position. The aquare was that pop that has since rolled over. There are a newer group of traders that I work with that went crazy when they heard about the court ruling. However, this is a perfect example of how the longer-term trend simply...
I take your point about newer traders going crazy tho' I know it wasn't aimed at me. Lovely clear explanation. Cheers.
  • #16,029
  • Sep 25, 2019 3:00pm Sep 25, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting ElParcero
{quote} Not so fast. 1. "The reality is that NOBODY gets rich trading their own money." Nobody is a strong word, buddy. 2. "oh shit", you forgot compounding. 1.2^20= 38.34x = almost $2M. Let's say you started with only $10K (not $50K) and spent the rest on your living expenses and whatever and kept working your contractor job or whatever - you could easily survive. $10K*38.4=about $400K. $400K still means you wouldn't need to bother with some weird fake-prop-shop after 10 years. And that's being a total coward with leverage. Your numbers just don't...
Not sure what El Parcero's agenda is here, but i would make a couple points:

1) You need a lot of capital to live off trading profits alone. Assuming you make 20%/yr and need $100k to live on, you'd need $500k to start with. This of course ignores taxes... Assuming you're not generating LT cap gains, you probably are paying 25% at least in combined state/federal taxes, so that's $133 Gross to end up at $100k net "take-home" pay. but now instead of $500k, you need $665k (665 x 20% = $133). Now if you live in a paid-off house (or in your mom's basement?) these numbers are different, but you get my point.

side note: your math was wrong, it's 1.2^10 not 20... it's a 10yr old thread.
side note 2: your other math is wrong too - you say you can survive on $10k x 1.2^20 or 400k over 20yrs. I dunno where you live, but my property taxes ALONE are $20k/yr.
I was going to bite my tongue at your statement that "20%/yr is pathetic" but i can't... To me that statement shows a complete lack of understanding of real world returns using proper risk management.

2) Your comment about the S&P 500 and "had you just bought the S&P 500 and held for 3yrs" is a great example of hindsight bias. Sure it looks easy now... everyone has the perfect trading system on the old data, but get them to trade live markets and they don't know the @ss from a hole in the ground.

3) "Trading isn't a competition" -- I don't know why it was said or more to the point why you have an issue with it -- Trading *isn't* a competition except with yourself and your own goals. If you want to make 100%/yr, good luck to you, you'll need a lot of leverage and lot of luck.

I don't always agree with Chris' charts and I don't follow anyone's calls blindly, but I respect his way of trading and the fact that he shares his thoughts with others. You joined this forum last month and by all means, please link us to your content, your charts, your trading record, etc. I'd love to see it.

Bottom line: People who try to make themselves feel better by tearing other people down are not worth listening to. There are 1000s of other threads on forex factory, if you don't like this one, go find a new one to go shouting in.
  • #16,030
  • Sep 25, 2019 3:10pm Sep 25, 2019 3:10pm
Quoting InfinitySL
{quote} Not sure what El Parcero's agenda is here, but i would make a couple points: 1) You need a lot of capital to live off trading profits alone. Assuming you make 20%/yr and need $100k to live on, you'd need $500k to start with. This of course ignores taxes... Assuming you're not generating LT cap gains, you probably are paying 25% at least in combined state/federal taxes, so that's $133 Gross to end up at $100k net "take-home" pay. but now instead of $500k, you need $665k (665 x 20% = $133). Now if you live in a paid-off house (or in your mom's...
Stop using all that math. :-)
  • #16,031
  • Sep 25, 2019 10:19pm Sep 25, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting InfinitySL
{quote} Not sure what El Parcero's agenda is here, but i would make a couple points: 1) You need a lot of capital to live off trading profits alone. Assuming you make 20%/yr and need $100k to live on, you'd need $500k to start with. This of course ignores taxes... Assuming you're not generating LT cap gains, you probably are paying 25% at least in combined state/federal taxes, so that's $133 Gross to end up at $100k net "take-home" pay. but now instead of $500k, you need $665k (665 x 20% = $133). Now if you live in a paid-off house (or in your mom's...
1. By mentioning "the agenda" you automatically succeed in assigning an ulterior or some kind of a weird motive. Nice trick, where did you learn that? How about this? I said what I meant and I meant what I said. Wait, what's your agenda? LOL.
2. Trust me, this scrub doesn't need $100k/year to live on. Never did, never will.


3. Yeah, I made a mistake. It's 10 years. Still $50K * 1.2 ^ 10 ~ $310K. My point still stands. More than enough for a scrub to trade his own money and not resort to working with some dodgy fake prop shops.

4. No, look at historical S&P returns. You can look from the very beginning. 1926. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...urn-sp-500.asp Average return about 10%. Lever that 2X, sit back and you got the scrub's return. Tons of buy-n-holds of other assets like emeralds, rare coins, etc beat the scrub's return too. Probably stamp collections beat it too.

5. 20% pa is awesome for someone managing hundreds of millions of dollars with major fiduciary duties. But not for a retail scrub trading leveraged instruments like FX and futures. It's not even good for a small (under $10MM) CTA. You gotta be able to think in different categories. C'mon, you can do it.

6. I don't need to make anything available. I'm not positioning myself as a "mentor" full of market wisdom and oneliners. This scrub is and has been for 10 years.
  • #16,032
  • Sep 25, 2019 10:55pm Sep 25, 2019 10:55pm
Quoting ElParcero
{quote} 1. By mentioning "the agenda" you automatically succeed in assigning an ulterior or some kind of a weird motive. Nice trick, where did you learn that? How about this? I said what I meant and I meant what I said. Wait, what's your agenda? LOL.
My agenda is not to have assholes on ForexFactory, that's all. Post good content, make good conversation, don't be a jerk. From what I can tell from your limited history here, you like to go into threads, throw out some view and get into arguments with people who disagree with you. There's threads for you on here, but i just don't go there.

Quoting ElParcero
2. Trust me, this scrub doesn't need $100k/year to live on. Never did, never will.
You don't know the first thing about anyone on here's financial situation or what they need to live on. Some of us need/make/have quite a bit more than that but don't feel the need to brag about it. We're confident in our situation and our method and don't feel the need to attack others to make ourselves feel better about either our trading or our life choices. Live and let live.

Quoting ElParcero
3. Yeah, I made a mistake. It's 10 years. Still $50K * 1.2 ^ 10 ~ $310K. My point still stands. More than enough for a scrub to trade his own money and not resort to working with some dodgy fake prop shops.
Speak for yourself, it wouldn't be enough for me.

Quoting ElParcero
4. No, look at historical S&P returns. You can look from the very beginning. 1926. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...urn-sp-500.asp Average return about 10%. Lever that 2X, sit back and you got the scrub's return. Tons of buy-n-holds of other assets like emeralds, rare coins, etc beat the scrub's return too. Probably stamp collections beat it too.
I know historical S&P Returns. I know returns of a 60-40 Stock/Bond portfolios. T-bill returns over time. Small Caps, Mid Caps, EM, whatever.... What I don't know is a) your returns or b) Clockwork's returns. So why don't we skip the name-calling and not try to project whatever we *think* those returns are to "prove" our points.
Quoting ElParcero
5. 20% pa is awesome for someone managing hundreds of millions of dollars with major fiduciary duties. But not for a retail scrub trading leveraged instruments like FX and futures. It's not even good for a small (under $10MM) CTA. You gotta be able to think in different categories. C'mon, you can do it.
The above just shows a complete lack of understanding of risk management and how winning traders actually manage position sizing and leverage. A "leveraged instrument" can be as levered (or unlevered) as a trader deems prudent. People who make 50-100% year routinely have 80-90% drawdowns and many blow up their accounts entirely (but they won't volunteer that info on this website). Once you've attained a certain level of wealth like some of us, you care a lot more about your downside than the upside of your trades. That's called maturity. It's called knowing risk/reward.

Quoting ElParcero
6. I don't need to make anything available. I'm not positioning myself as a "mentor" full of market wisdom and oneliners. This scrub is and has been for 10 years.
You don't need to do anything but if you want to be taken seriously, actually contribute something to the community rather than throw stones at people.

-SL
  • #16,033
  • Sep 25, 2019 11:18pm Sep 25, 2019 11:18pm
Quoting InfinitySL
{quote} My agenda is not to have assholes on ForexFactory, that's all. Post good content, make good conversation, don't be a jerk. From what I can tell from your limited history here, you like to go into threads, throw out some view and get into arguments with people who disagree with you. There's threads for you on here, but i just don't go there. {quote} You don't know the first thing about anyone on here's financial situation or what they need to live on. Some of us need/make/have quite a bit more than that but don't feel the need to brag about...
Nothing really worth responding to there. I stand behind everything I said. It's not up to you to decide for everyone whether it has merit or not. People can read what I wrote and make up their own minds. I understand you got triggered. That's OK. Have some water
  • #16,034
  • Sep 26, 2019 6:52am Sep 26, 2019 6:52am
ElParcero -- why FF created the ignore button.

**Triggered**

Might be the funniest thing i've seen on here in a long while.
  • #16,035
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:25pm Oct 4, 2019 12:25pm
Soybeans: Trying to break a multi-year downtrend. See 920-925 as a major resistance zone. No position as this might take some time to develop.

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  • #16,036
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:26pm Oct 4, 2019 12:26pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Soybeans: Trying to break a multi-year downtrend. See 920-925 as a major resistance zone. No position as this might take some time to develop. {image}
Were you tipsy when you drew the trendline?
  • #16,037
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:31pm Oct 4, 2019 12:31pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Soybeans: Trying to break a multi-year downtrend. See 920-925 as a major resistance zone. No position as this might take some time to develop. {image}
Agreed, and the fundies are also lining up. I don't trade ags - the desk won't allow it as we are instructed to stick to specific sectors/markets, but I know there has been a lot of chatter about the Chinese buying more lately, and there hasn't been a lot of rain in the growing part of that world. That being said - as a technical trader I see the chance as well. Could be a good run just waiting to happen. Those in CFD markets, i.e. outside the US could have a good shot at a longer-term play here.
  • #16,038
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:37pm Oct 4, 2019 12:37pm
Quoting ElParcero
{quote} Were you tipsy when you drew the trendline?
Probably, is that a problem?
  • #16,039
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:38pm Oct 4, 2019 12:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Agreed, and the fundies are also lining up. I don't trade ags - the desk won't allow it as we are instructed to stick to specific sectors/markets, but I know there has been a lot of chatter about the Chinese buying more lately, and there hasn't been a lot of rain in the growing part of that world. That being said - as a technical trader I see the chance as well. Could be a good run just waiting to happen. Those in CFD markets, i.e. outside the US could have a good shot at a longer-term play here.
Not to mention these Ags are going to be in play (in both directions) vis a vis the trade war. So you're taking a big risk, especially heading into the weekend, that something happens either positively or negatively to impact the trade.
  • #16,040
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:59pm Oct 4, 2019 12:59pm
Quoting InfinitySL
{quote} Probably, is that a problem?
I thought you were ignoring me. LOL
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