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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #641
  • Sep 19, 2019 9:45am Sep 19, 2019 9:45am
Quoting LCForex
After the gap my analysis is telling me we need to go back to 55.40 and wait for a bounce there and I will reanalysis that if we are developing a bull trend or we could still see some surprises as 47.27 {image} {image}
There has been a whole lot of bouncing lately. I think up will be the end result for a while though. Too many political opportunities.
  • #642
  • Sep 19, 2019 12:02pm Sep 19, 2019 12:02pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} There has been a whole lot of bouncing lately. I think up will be the end result for a while though. Too many political opportunities.
Up is the result the point is from where? where is the best place for buying?
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #643
  • Sep 19, 2019 2:35pm Sep 19, 2019 2:35pm
OIL keep having the south trajectory.. from some hill-up of course But going back down, it seems... They have paid the "insurance" now and they would seem to be fine It was maybe a life-saving spike because we consolidated so much so good on the south views... last week... that some very ready to bet everyting, all-in.. houses, mortgages... Now they have got a wake up call maybe, that nothing is certain.. And that when too many people agree... you might better check again...
Or how Oscar W. said...

“Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.” ― Oscar Wilde
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #644
  • Sep 19, 2019 8:31pm Sep 19, 2019 8:31pm
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Up is the result the point is from where? where is the best place for buying?
It depends on your time-frame but if you are willing to hold for at least a week under 60 is a good entry point in my opinion.
  • #645
  • Sep 20, 2019 10:55am Sep 20, 2019 10:55am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} It depends on your time-frame but if you are willing to hold for at least a week under 60 is a good entry point in my opinion.
I often use daily for only, prefer buy and hold
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #646
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:44pm Sep 20, 2019 1:44pm
I wonder what the thread "sweet oil" actually means or was meant... Sweet profits made from oil? Because it would imply.. sweet as uptrend... I would suspect.... someone regrets it is not (re)named to BITTER now Still doesn't look a sweet deal to me, no matter the conflicts... almost... Because oil is still needed, who has the access... Also check the correlation between conflicts and oil prices..

Do not seem there might be that big of a conflict, they having the "weapon" and all.. Some extortion at most, at least this is what we might hope for...

https://www.businessinsider.com/time...prices-2016-12

Also: http://www.fedprimerate.com/nymex-cr...tory-chart.htm

Will watch it closely in the next week(s)... just in case I might be wrong with the south views... Much can change in upcoming week(s)...
My price prediction model of 10years is indicating some (big) changes in the markets... I think we can say that this status quo or "stall".. might be just over... soon...
So now the question is, do we get the direction/trend right? Much money to be made out of this...
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Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #647
  • Oct 2, 2019 11:29am Oct 2, 2019 11:29am
The 50.50 is coming in!! But will be better something around 47
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #648
  • Oct 2, 2019 2:10pm Oct 2, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting LCForex
The 50.50 is coming in!! But will be better something around 47 {image}
Man, some good opportunities for shorting then, at least after/before rebound(s) 47 seems a very interesting number.. hope not many people would start thinking about interventions...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #649
  • Oct 2, 2019 6:39pm Oct 2, 2019 6:39pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Man, some good opportunities for shorting then, at least after/before rebound(s) 47 seems a very interesting number.. hope not many people would start thinking about interventions...
Remember I could not sell oil. I will wait just for buying!
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #650
  • Oct 11, 2019 12:55pm Oct 11, 2019 12:55pm
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Remember I could not sell oil. I will wait just for buying!
Why you can't sell it?

BTW due my 7day trade.. my weekly profits shows 38.4% atm for WTI OIL.. But overall is 9.8%.. Was sure happy to close the trade after it was torturing me for a week... And specially happy after... when this rebound escalated somewhat And thirdly.. I am happy I can enter the SELL again, next week probably.. from much higher position, so epic shorting ahead, if all goes well
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #651
  • Oct 11, 2019 4:45pm Oct 11, 2019 4:45pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Why you can't sell it? BTW due my 7day trade.. my weekly profits shows 38.4% atm for WTI OIL.. But overall is 9.8%.. Was sure happy to close the trade after it was torturing me for a week... And specially happy after... when this rebound escalated somewhat And thirdly.. I am happy I can enter the SELL again, next week probably.. from much higher position, so epic shorting ahead, if all goes well
Because i am sure that when i sell it this thing will hit 70
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #652
  • Oct 11, 2019 5:02pm Oct 11, 2019 5:02pm
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Because i am sure that when i sell it this thing will hit 70
I can certainly understand any apprehension about being short oil after the recent Saudi attack. Believe it or not though, the options skew for oil is typically lower meaning there's a greater chance of a sudden drop rather than a sudden spike. Definitely not something I would have intuitively guessed!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #653
  • Oct 11, 2019 5:16pm Oct 11, 2019 5:16pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I can certainly understand any apprehension about being short oil after the recent Saudi attack. Believe it or not though, the options skew for oil is typically lower meaning there's a greater chance of a sudden drop rather than a sudden spike. Definitely not something I would have intuitively guessed!
90% of the time i only trade techs. That tells me oil higher
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #654
  • Oct 11, 2019 5:20pm Oct 11, 2019 5:20pm
Recently price action is telling me this possibilities.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.jpg Size: 200 KB
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #655
  • Oct 11, 2019 5:37pm Oct 11, 2019 5:37pm
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Because i am sure that when i sell it this thing will hit 70
Don't get into that mindset! I know it can feel like that sometimes but you have to trust your analysis until you know better.
  • #656
  • Oct 12, 2019 3:09am Oct 12, 2019 3:09am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I can certainly understand any apprehension about being short oil after the recent Saudi attack. Believe it or not though, the options skew for oil is typically lower meaning there's a greater chance of a sudden drop rather than a sudden spike. Definitely not something I would have intuitively guessed!
I find that article deficient in so many respects. So I looked up the author's bio and he has an undergrad degree in economics from a liberal arts college..
  • #657
  • Oct 13, 2019 4:06am Oct 13, 2019 4:06am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Don't get into that mindset! I know it can feel like that sometimes but you have to trust your analysis until you know better.
I was just thinking about his posts... They might imply he has somewhat of power to attract bad luck (as the "The Cooler") so was thinking what if he does that
and we hedge it, turning his neg power to our positive.. But maybe it doesn't work if he knows this in advance... So we might convince him to take the trade and hedge it (maybe - he shouldn't know or even suspect, just in case. I am also down to experiments. I noticed that many many traders have this mentality.. Convinced that
market do react to their trades (thoughts). And it is more common than one would thing

I agree with your reply however, it is best to go through it and then see in retrospect with what win/lose might correlate
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #658
  • Oct 13, 2019 4:12am Oct 13, 2019 4:12am
Quoting LloydOz
{quote} I find that article deficient in so many respects. So I looked up the author's bio and he has an undergrad degree in economics from a liberal arts college..
Is that a good or a bad thing? If bad... I find many didn't even read basic wikipedia about general economic principles I mean, it's bizarre.. Some for example claim, that some units could climb to a degree when it would not even be possible.. in a pure math/logic sense... I won't touch GDP/Debt/Stimuluses even since not even some skilled economists understand it So I would say that it might be good to have some degree in "related" subject... specially if one is closer to institutional, investment banking style of trading that is not real trading... But for REAL trading as we know it, want it... it might be sometimes (if not necessarily even) to have ZERO "prejudice" so how they say.. "to be ignorant at the right time" to find the SWEET OIL This happened to me btw... I used completely different tools (from other fields) on the markets.. and "WTF" happened.. Still can not confirm/reject... I know enough to know I can not At least till now... Stat is a bi*ch Many got trapped (too soon). Had to be careful

Btw the author seems to have, haven't checked the article btw, a good combo of economics and politics, also M.A. in statistics... In theory, ideal combination to have some clue of the markets, but haven' skipped what he claims in the articles... https://www.cmegroup.com/education/f...k-norland.html
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #659
  • Edited 7:14am Oct 13, 2019 6:48am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Is that a good or a bad thing? If bad... I find many didn't even read basic wikipedia about general economic principles I mean, it's bizarre.. Some for example claim, that some units could climb to a degree when it would not even be possible.. in a pure math/logic sense... I won't touch GDP/Debt/Stimuluses even since not even some skilled economists understand it So I would say that it might be good to have some degree in "related" subject... specially if one is closer to institutional, investment banking style of trading...
Yeah, thanks - I have read the article three times now and found it to be very imprecise for something that purports to be an empirical study. Only two short sentences were devoted to crude oil being in a contango. Cash prices ought be used to keep it simple. Skewness isn't even defined. Since that is what the article is about, that I thought would have been kinda important.

"Might" have something to do with rise in US oil production since 2008, but relevant options data prior to 2008 is not available. Hmmm - the Senior Economist at CME, of all people, can't get this data? No way!

And so on. It is what is called a "uni-variate" analysis, despite paying lip service to other possible factors. Returns depend on skewness...oh, wait.

He points out that put/call skewness profiles (however defined) may twist around. Again, there is handwaving involved and that's about it, despite some fancy looking graphs that we are supposed to eyeball with little or no idea what some of them actually mean.

I wouldn't disagree that there may be a point in all this, and it may be one thing to consider or take a passing interest in should one be so disposed (elsewhere today I mentioned how I take a passing interest in extreme COT numbers, for example. Also similar would be VIX, should you trade equities).

However I don't think any of this is precise enough to us trading on 100:1 margins, many with small accounts and tight stops with short trading horizons. I know some traders who specialize and who have deep pockets can afford to take a hundred things into consideration and hopefully they do it in a much more robust manner than Mr Norland.
  • #660
  • Edited 8:26am Oct 13, 2019 8:01am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting LloydOz
{quote} Yeah, thanks - I have read the article three times now and found it to be very imprecise for something that purports to be an empirical study. Only two short sentences were devoted to crude oil being in a contango. Cash prices ought be used to keep it simple. Skewness isn't even defined. Since that is what the article is about, that I thought would have been kinda important. "Might" have something to do with rise in US oil production since 2008, but relevant options data prior to 2008 is not available. Hmmm - the Senior Economist at CME,...
Maybe all that was on purpose One of "the best" analysts/politicians... (that are there to keep the job as long as possible regardless the quality) do write/say their prediction rather loosely/vague therefore they are "right" most of the time if not all... Just check all the analysts and their analyses... Who has the guts to predict AS is.. without "if if" "should should".. I for one made very clear prediction, took a great chance of being ridiculed and for now, it still holds.. I just took the risk.. But many do not, they just want the job Also check some of the gurus, total mess, but they give dream/hope to readers So the readers can see them always right or wrong, its their choice Reminds of this

Inserted Video


Btw the (CME) guy in question "holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and political science" so he knows how to talk (to keep the job regardless of prediction vs reality).

Quoting LloydOz
However I don't think any of this is precise enough to us trading on 100:1 margins, many with small accounts and tight stops with short trading horizons. I know some traders who specialize and who have deep pockets can afford to take a hundred things into consideration and hopefully they do it in a much more robust manner than Mr Norland.
That is true for almost any article, I believe, without even reading them Hope I'm wrong, if you find any of those, let me know, so I can put it to the test and retire soon

BTW skipped mentioned article and the guy gives some good points... At least for us to check them and make our own conclusions... Up to everyone I always like some brainstorming, for additional confirmation... if needed... BTW I am bearish on the OIL, at least till the end of the month.. at which point I will remodel all my markets... Since I believe it might be one hell of a halloween
Can you afford to take that chance?
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