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GDX Elliott Wave Analysis: Calling The Reaction Higher From Inflection Area

Hello fellow traders. Today, I want to share some Elliott Wave charts of the GDX which we presented to our members in the past. You see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 08/30/19. showing that GDX ended the cycle from 08/18/19 low at the peak of 08/28/19 at 30.88.
Below from there, we advised members that the pullback should extend lower into the blue box. Below 30.88 level, we said to our clients it should see the equal legs from 08/28 peak towards the areas of the 100 – 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the black wave ((a))-((b)) which came around 27.85-29.37. Therefore, we expected buyers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. And that was the first area for buyers to appear to take prices to new highs.

GDX 08.30.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


In the last Elliott Wave chart, you can see that GDX reacted nicely higher and continued the rally. Due to the right side up tag, we expected GDX to be supported overall. Any trades from that area have been risk-free, which means the stop-loss was moved to breakeven, targeting higher levels. Do please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented might have changed already. The blue boxes you see in our charts are our so-called High-Frequency boxes. Where the market ideally shows us a reaction either lower or higher. These areas are used be traded in the direction of the right side.
If you are interested in how to trade our blue box areas and want to understand how Elliott Wave works. Then I recommend you to get a shot on our 14 days free trial below. We present a lot of trading setups in our 3 Live Trading Rooms.

GDX 09.4.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis



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Elliott Wave View: Further Rally in GBPUSD in Zigzag Structure

Short term Elliott Wave view in GBPUSD suggests that the decline to 1.1957 on September 3 ended wave (3). Wave (4) bounce is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 1.1957, wave A ended at 1.235 and subdivides as a 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) of A ended at 1.2085, wave ((ii)) of A ended at 1.2012, wave ((iii)) of A ended at 1.226, wave ((iv)) of A ended at 1.22, and wave ((v)) of A ended at 1.235.

Pair then corrected the rally from 1.1957 low in wave B. Wave B unfolded as a double zigzag corrective structure and completed at 1.223. Wave ((w)) of B ended at 1.2284, wave ((x)) of B ended at 1.2338, and wave ((y)) of B ended at 1.223. Pair has since resumed higher and broken above wave A at 1.235 suggesting the next leg higher has started. Near term, while pullback stays above 1.223, expect pair to extend higher within wave C of (4). Potential target for wave C can be as high as wave A which comes at 1.262 – 1.287. The area, if reached, should see sellers for 3 waves pullback at least.

GBPUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The FXB Longer Term Bearish Cycles

The FXB Longer Term Bearish Cycles
Firstly the British Pound Sterling tracking ETF fund FXB inception date was 6/21/2006. The bearish cycle lower from the November 2007 highs in FXB is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the monthly chart. The British Pound Sterling has been the currency of the Bank of England since 1694. Considering that date was back before there was a US Dollar to compare with and data readily available suggests price was at 2.6440 in 1972 assume the trend is down & should continue. Spot price in the GBPUSD foreign exchange was 1.0520 in 1995. Price was at 2.1161 in 2007 where it peaked and turned lower. This is where we will shift the focus to the FXB highs at 211.44 in November 2007.
Secondly the bearish cycle from the November 2007 into the January 2009 lows was clearly an Elliott Wave impulse in 5 waves. From there that lasted into the July 2014 highs appeared to be a typical double three structure with an exception compared to the spot price of foreign exchange where it made a new high above the August 2009 highs in a flat wave y of (II) whereas the FXB did not. I accept this as being similar to the structures a triangle wave “Y” of any degree will not surpass the peak or low of the previous wave “W” of same degree. Also in a similar fashion in running flats the last wave “C” will not take the high or low of the initial wave “A”.
Either way it is irrelevant as to what the structure was as the momentum indicators suggested that July 2014 high corrected the cycle from the November 2007 highs. The analysis continues below the monthly chart.

Thirdly The turn lower from the July 2014 highs appears to be an impulse lower into the October 2016 lows. That did not hardly reach equal legs of the initial wave (I) on the monthly chart. Thus I conclude that the impulse lower into the October 2016 lows must be of one smaller degree. This is as shown on the both the monthly and weekly chart. The bounce from the October 2016 lows was an expanded flat with a diagonal ((C)) wave into the April 2018 wave II highs.
From there it is apparent there are 3 impulse cycles. The momentum indicators suggest the wave (3) ended and it is correcting the cycle from the February 2019 highs. The wave (3) is shorter than the wave (1). This is fine to label that way as long as the (5) does not exceed the wave (3) length. It is expected to be relatively short as shown. The analysis continues and concludes below the weekly chart.

In conclusion : The instrument is currently correcting the cycle from the February 2019 highs. Afterward it should see another low before a larger bounce corrects the cycle from the April 2018 highs. After that, it should turn lower again in the larger bearish cycle. Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website. Please check out our services Free for 14 days and see if we can be of help.
Kind regards & good luck trading. Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team

Profit Taking in Gold as Trade Talk Resumes
September 9, 2019 By EWFHendra (Edit)
Last week, China and the U.S. have agreed to resume face-to-face talk in Washington in early October. It’s however still unclear if both sides can make substantial, even if temporary, agreement to solve their disputes. Nonetheless, the news is a welcome relief to the market with the year-long conflict dampening 2020 growth forecasts. Prior to this progress, there’s a mounting fear that trade wars and other factors such as Brexit can push the global economy into recession.
The trade war escalated last month with the U.S and China both increasing the tariff. By December, almost all of China’s export worth $520 billion will incur a tariff of around 22% on average. Meanwhile, U.S. exports to China will incur an average tariff of 20%. The recent U.S. data has started to show the economic deterioration. For example, the recent ISM purchasing manager index (PMI) fell below 50, signalling a contraction.
Precious metal traders took the opportunity of the good news by taking profit in Gold and Silver. The precious metals have been on a tear this year even after the recent pullback. A combination of factors including slowing economy, geopolitical tension, and negative yielding bonds drive the speculative demand of precious metals up. Below is a Year-to-Date (YTD) Return on different asset categories as of September 9, 2019
YTD Return
S&P 50020.26%
DAX16.30%
Nikkei7.08%
Gold17.70%
Silver16.74%
10 Year Notes8.10%
Dollar Index2.37%
All asset classes is doing well at the time of this writing. Gold and Silver are among the top performers this year even after the recent pullback. Trade war however is not the only driver for Gold and Silver in the long run. Arguably, trade war is not the major driver although it can certainly contribute to the recent rally. In our view, the major driver for the rally in Gold and Silver is the $17 trillion worth of negative yielding bonds.
Negative yielding bonds are recent phenomenon happening only in the past few years after the unprecedented money printing by the central banks. Bonds used to be a risk-free asset category which will perform well when stock market drops. As owning Gold doesn’t give dividends or interest, many investors argue that investing money in banks or bonds is a better alternative to reduce risk as they can get yields. However, with banks around the world offering near zero interest rate and negative yielding bonds, holding Gold now becomes much more attractive. Bond market is also currently arguably in a bubble territory with yields going negative. We have never faced this situation where the risk-free asset category is actually in a bubble. When it finally reverses, then there’s a lack of suitable risk-free asset alternative. Physical Gold can fill this role perfectly as an alternative risk-free asset.
Gold Long Term Elliott Wave Outlook

Since breaking above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders from 2014, Gold has continued to rally sharply. An orthodox target for the move up is calculated by measuring the head of the inverse head and shoulder to the neckline. Then the distance is projected from the point of the breakout of the neckline to get an orthodox target of $1700. The rally from August 2018 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, and the recent pullback is a temporary setback in wave ((4)). Once this pullback is over, the yellow metal should resume higher again.
Gold Elliott Wave Path

If the current pullback is a wave ((4)), then typically it can end around 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((3)) which should come at $1445 – $1489. From here, the yellow metal can resume higher again or bounce in 3 waves at least. Please note that we can’t rule out a few weeks / months consolidation in wave ((4)) as wave ((2)) took 2 months to form.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) has ended cycle from 2011 low

Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) trades inversely with the underlying precious metals (Gold and Silver). When the ratio rises, the price of the underlying metals go down and vice versa. In the above chart, it has decisively broken and closed below April 2011 low trend line and thus the cycle is already over. Now GSR may retest the broken trend line, but it should get rejection and the GSR should continue to extend lower again, further supporting the precious metals.
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RWE Electric Utilities Stock Looking for More Recovery
September 8, 2019 By EWFSanjay (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. In today’s blog, we will have a look at the RWE AG stock. The stock is listed in the DAX 30.
RWE AG is a German electric company which has its Headquarter in Essen Germany. It is one of the biggest electricity producers in Germany. Over the last couple of years, the stock almost lost 90% of its value. Starting from the post-financial peak at 102.60. The stock dropped to 8.67 low which marked the low in 2016.
Since, its major low in 2015, RWE could recover almost 20% from its initial low. Let’s have a look at the weekly price action and what to expect for the company.

RWE AG 08.09.2019 Monthly Chart


RWE AG 08.09.2019 Weekly Chart Analysis


In the chart above you can see that the stock ended the cycle up from 2015 crises low at its 2015 peak. Above from there, RWE has been showing strength. Below from there, it has been in the progress of correcting that in 3-7 or 11 swings. Recently, RWE broke above 3/18/2019 peak opening up a higher high sequence. With that said, the stock has an incomplete sequence from 2015 low indicating that more upside towards 29.17-39.07. Consequently, I am looking for another push higher until 29.17 has reached.
Summarizing, the stock should see more upside in the next coming days/ weeks and month into 29.17-39.07 area where a bigger reaction lower could be taking place later on to correct cycle from 2015 low.

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AUDUSD : Calling the Move Lower
September 7, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD: On June 10/2019 I posted on Twitter @AidanFX a possible bearish market pattern. On the Daily chart AUDUSD has been trending lower since 2018 so it would only make sense to follow the trend and continue to look for possible selling opportunities. The chart below shows the possible reversal zone where AUDUSD can sell off from and where sellers/bears can be waiting to push the pair lower.
AUDUSD Daily Chart June 10/2019

In the chart below, AUDUSD did not move higher to the reversal zone from the June 10/2019 Daily chart and instead made another push lower first. But on the push lower price stayed in the area of the AB 1.618% – 2.24% Fib. retracement levels where the point C of the green bearish pattern must terminate for the pattern to remain valid. After point C terminated the pair then pushed higher to the reversal zone and found sellers to complete the point D of the bearish pattern. The bearish market pattern triggered sells at the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level where price was also met with a support/resistance structure to add more technical sellers to enter the market. More sellers eventually entered on the simple break below the black trend line which confirmed bears were in control. The break below the black trend line is where I entered the SELL trade with stops above the July 19/2019 high.
AUDUSD Daily Chart August 2/2019

In the chart below, AUDUSD has tagged the 1:2 RR target making my trade a winner already. We continue to expect more downside to come in the following days/weeks and will need to watch and wait to see if price will tag my remaining targets. Always plan the trade and trade the plan.
AUDUSD Daily Chart September 5/2019

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
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EURGBP Selling The Rallies At The Blue Box
September 9, 2019 By EWF Vlada (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. Another instrument that we have been trading lately is EURGBP. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURGBP, published in members area of the website. As our members know, EURGBP has incomplete bearish sequences in the cycle from the 08/12 peak . Consequently, we advised members to avoid buying the pair and keep on selling the rallies in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Trading strategy.
EURGBP 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 9.7.2019
Break of 08/27 low made the pair bearish against the 0.9149 peak . Cycle from the August 12th peak (0.93303) looks incomplete now, calling for further weakness. We don’t recommend buying the pair in any proposed recovery. Strategy is waiting for the clear 3 waves bounce and then sell the pair in 3,7,11 swings when get chance.

EURGBP 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 9.7.2019
The pair is correcting the cycle from the 0.9149 peak. We expect to see 3 waves bounce in proposed X red recovery that can see 0.8999-0.9029 sellers area. At the marked blue box sellers should ideally appear for proposed decline or 3 wave pull back alternatively. We don’t recommend buying the pair in proposed leg up, and favor the short side – selling the pair in the blue box.
As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. H1 Trend is bearish and we expect to see sellers in the blue box for further decline or 3 waves pull back at least. As soon as the pull back reaches 50 fibs against the ((x)) black low, we will make long positions risk free. Invalidation level for sellers is break above 1.618 fib extension: 0.9029.

EURGBP 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Analysis 9.9.2019
The pair made leg up and reached ((w))-((x)) equal selling area at 0.8999-0.9029. Sellers appeared right at the blue box and the price is already showing nice reaction from there. We are calling X red recovery completed at 0.90149 high. The pull back has already reached 50 fibs against the ((x)) black low. So members who took short positions from the blue box should be already risk free.
It’s crucial to fully understand our official strategy: trading the equal legs and sequences in 3,7,11 swings. Combined with Trend Trading it gives you very powerful system that protects your account and makes you profit. If not already familiar with this strategy, all you have to do is to sign up for 14 days Free Trial and watch our Free Educational Video in membership area. If still having some questions after watching it, feel free to let us know and we will help. You can ask questions in 24 Hour Chat Room and in Live Analysis Sessions.


EURGBP 1 Hour New York Elliott Wave Analysis 9.9.2019
The pair has given us nice decline from the blue box as we expected. We got new short term low, confirming next leg down is in progress. As a result members are now enjoying profits in risk free positions.



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Elliott Wave View: 10 Year Treasury Notes (ZN_F) at Support Area

Since topping out at 135.15 on July 2012, 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) was in a multi-year decline. It finally found a bottom at 117.13 on October 2018. The 6 year decline was in a large 3 swing, thus the decline was corrective. It has since started to rally again from 117.13 low. The rally has the characteristic of an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the short term chart below, we can see the impulsive rally from 2018 low ended wave III at 132.13 on September 3.

Wave IV pullback has now reached the minimum target to end at the blue box. The pullback unfolded as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 130.27 and wave ((X)) ended at 131.15. Wave ((Y)) of IV is expected to complete at 129.17 – 129.29. Both wave ((W)) and ((Y)) have an internal subdivision of a zigzag (5-3-5). The Notes should find support from 129.17 – 129.29 and resume higher in wave V or bounce in 3 waves at least. In larger time frame, the Notes may eventually break above July 2012 peak again (135.15). If this happens, the Notes should open more upside in larger degree and we can see bond yields continue to decline across the board.

10 Year Notes 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Netflix Selling Elliott Wave Blue Box At The Extreme Areas
September 11, 2019 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave charts of Netflix which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast.com. In which, the decline from 7/29/2019 peak is unfolding as a diagonal structure with a sub-division of 3-3-3-3-3 structure. And showed a lower low sequence favored more downside. Also, it’s important to note that the Netflix was having red right side tag pointing lower favored members to took selling opportunity at the blue box areas in 3, 7 or 11 swings. We will explain the ideas & structure below:
Netflix 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Netflix 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 9/08 Weekend update, in which the stock is showing a 3 wave decline from $311.89 peak within wave 3 of a diagonal structure. The internals of that pullback unfolded as double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at $290.32 low. Wave ((x)) bounce ended at $300.10 high as a lesser degree Flat structure. Wave ((y)) ended at $282.50 low as a lesser degree zigzag structure.
Up from there, wave 4 bounce was expected to unfold as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at $293.97 high. Wave ((b)) pullback ended at $287.03 low. Wave ((c)) was expected to reach the blue box selling area at $298.61-$305.76 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)). Afterward, the stock was expected to resume the downside for new lows or for 3 wave reaction lower to allow members to create a risk-free position.
Netflix 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Netflix Latest 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from Post-Market update, in which the stock failed inside the blue box area at $298.61-$305.76 as expected. And made the strong reaction lower to the downside. Which allowed members to create a risk free position shortly after taking a short position. Now, as far as the stock remain below the $301.61 high it should look for more weakness towards minimum extension area for wave 5 target i.e inverse 123.6%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of 4 at $278-$270.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Free Trial.

Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) New All-Time High Imminent

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests the rally in S&P 500 (SPX) from August 6, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the chart below, we can see wave (1) ended at 2943.31 and wave (2) pullback ended at 2834.97. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a running Flat. Wave A ended at 2825.51, wave B ended at 2939.08 and wave C of (2) ended at 2834.97. Wave (3) is currently in progress and expected to eventually make a new all-time high.

Up from 2834.97, wave ((i)) ended at 2898.79 and wave ((ii)) ended at 2853.05. Wave ((iii)) remains in progress and it is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree. Expect wave ((iii)) to end soon and Index should then pullback in wave ((iv)) before 1 more push higher to end wave ((v)) of 1. We don’t like selling the Index and continue to see near-term support in any dips in 3, 7 ,or 11 swing for further upside.

S&P 500 (SPX) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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USDTRY Elliott Wave View: Double Three Structure Ended from May
September 11, 2019 By Daud Bhatti (Edit)
We looked at USDTRY back in June and told the readers that preferred Elliott wave view suggested that cycle from 11/29/2018 low (5.129) ended at 5/9/2019 (6.199) as 11 swings diagonal structure that we labelled as wave (( 1)) and we expected a wave (( 2 )) pull back to unfold as a double three Elliott Wave Structure . Below is the chart we presented in the previous article on June 4 2019.
USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis 4 June 2019 – 8 Hour Chart

Now, let’s take a look at the recent 480 minute chart to see how the price action unfolded since June 2019.
USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis 11 September 2019 – 8 Hour Chart
Chart below shows, pair bounced by holding above 5.673 level but the bounce failed below 5/9/2019 peak for another 3 swings lower to 5.4420 on 8/8/2019. Rally since 8/8/2019 low has confirmed that cycle from 5/9/2019 peak is over and the rally to 5.858 appears to be impulsive so we are calling wave ((2)) completed at 5.4420. Down from 5.858 peak, we are looking for a 3 waves pull back in wave (2 ) before the rally resumes. Break above 5.855 would put the alternate view in play suggest wave (2) has already completed at 5.638. As price stays below 5.791 and more importantly below 5.858, another push lower in wave (2) would be expected. Provided 5.791 high doesn’t break, 5.570 area could be seen to complete wave (2) and should produce a 3 waves bounce at least.
Only a break below 5.4420 would suggest wave ((2)) is still in progress and in this case we could get a full test of 5.1422 low before the pair turns higher again.

USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily Chart
Below, we present the daily chart again as a reminder of the long-term picture. We are also showing an alternate view in case the rally fails to break above 8/13/2018 peak. Break below 5.1422 would suggest wave “x” shown in the alternate view has ended already at 5/9/2019 and would expose 4.183 – 3.6970 as the next buying area in the pair to start wave (V) up or produce a larger 3 waves bounce at least.

USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily Chart Alternate view

Elliott Wave View: DAX Extends Higher in Impulsive Structure

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests the pullback to 11266.48 on August 15, 2019 low ended wave ((2)). Wave ((3)) is in progress and subdivides as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. The current move higher should eventually break above wave ((1)) high on July 4, 2019 at 12656.05. However, to validate the view and avoid the potential of a double correction, Index still needs to break above 12656.05.

Up from 11266.48, wave 1 ended at 11853.14 as an impulse in lesser degree and wave 2 pullback ended at 11557.42. Wave 3 is proposed complete at recent high at 12471.83. The last high at 12471.83 almost reaches 161.8 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1, which supports the bullish view that it’s a wave 3 of an impulsive structure from August 15 low. Wave 4 pullback is in progress to correct cycle from August 26 low before Index resumes higher again. Potential area for wave 4 is 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 at 12120.8 – 12254.7 where buyers can appear for further upside. We don’t like selling the Index and expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 11557.42 low stays intact.

DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: Short Term Strength in Bitcoin

In the bigger picture, Bitcoin has been in sideways consolidation since topping out at $13880 on June 26. It did a 3 waves pullback to $9049.54 on July 17 and since then has been sideways. Further correction in larger degree can’t be ruled out as a double zigzag structure from June 26 high, but the crypto-currency needs to break below $9049.54 to validate this view.

In short term, chart below suggests that Bitcoin’s rally to 10952.01 ended wave (B). The crypto-currency has since turned lower and the decline to 9855.11 on September 11 ended wave 1. The internal of wave 1 unfolded as a leading diagonal Elliott Wave structure where wave ((i)) ended at 10204.18 and wave ((ii)) ended at 10542.93. Wave ((iii)) ended at 9910, wave ((iv)) ended at 10243.01 and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 9855.11.

Wave 2 rally is in progress to correct the decline from September 6 high (10952.01) as a zigzag structure. Up from 9855.11, wave ((a)) ended at 10465 with the internal as an impulse. Wave ((b)) pullback ended at 10060.95 and wave ((c)) is expected to rally in 5 waves. Potential target for wave ((c)) comes at $10672 – $10816 where wave ((c)) = wave ((a)). From this area, Bitcoin can then turn lower again as far as pivot at 10952.01 high stays intact.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: Impulsive Rally in Nikkei

Elliott Wave view suggests the rally in Nikkei from August 26, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 1 hour chart below, the rally to 21890 on September 13, 2019 ended wave (3) and wave (4) pullback ended at 21662. Internal of wave (3) unfolded as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (3) ended at 20790 and wave 2 of (3) ended at 20400. Up from there, wave 3 of (3) ended at 21435, wave 4 of (3) ended at 21295, and wave 5 of (3) ended at 21890.

Near term, the cycle is mature and thus it’s risky to chase the rally at this stage. However, while near term pullback stays above 21662, further upside can’t be ruled out within wave (5). Pair still needs to break above wave (3) at 21890 to validate this view and avoid a double correction. If Index breaks below 21662, then it still can do a double correction in wave (4) in 7 swing before the rally resumes. We do not like selling the Index. While pivot at August 26, 2019 low (19845) stays intact, Index should extend higher.

Nikkei (NKD_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL_F) Outlook After Saudi Arabia’s Oil Refinery Attack

Oil gapped up almost 20% early this week after the news that Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries got attacked by drones. It has since retraced after Saudi Arabia said they can restore most of the lost output within days. In the chart below, we label the rally to 63.39 as ending wave C of (X). It’s therefore part of an expanded Flat structure which started from June 5 low. The internal of wave C unfolded as a 5 waves impulse as an Expanded Flat is a 3-3-5 structure.

Wave ((i)) of C ended at 58.76 as a diagonal, and pullback to 54 ended wave ((ii)) of C. It then gapped up higher to 63.34 and ended wave ((iii)) of C after the news. Wave ((iv)) of C pullback ended at 58.77 and wave ((v)) of C ended at 63.38. This rally also completed wave (X) in larger degree. The decline from there looks impulsive and will soon complete wave ((i)) as 5 waves. Oil should then bounce in wave ((ii)) to correct the decline from 63.39. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 63.39 high stays intact, it should extend lower at least 1 more leg lower.

Oil (CL_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: SPY Can See Further Strength in Short Term

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) shows an incomplete sequence from June 3, 2019 low with a 100% extension target towards 306.3 – 313.2. In the chart below, we took the more aggressive view of the rally. We label the pullback to 273.09 on June 3 as wave ((2)). Wave ((3)) higher is in progress with subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree.
Up from 273.09, wave (1) ended at 302.23 as an impulse. Wave (2) pullback ended at 277.17. Up from there, wave 1 of (3) is expected to complete soon and the ETF should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from August 6, 2019 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 277.17 low stays intact, expect the ETF to extend higher. Possible target is 100% extension from June 3 low at 306.3 – 313.2. We don’t like selling the ETF.

SPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Should See More Downside

Elliott Wave view on Chesapeake Energy Corp (ticker symbol: CHK) suggests the rally to 2.17 ended wave (B). This suggests the stock has turned lower in wave (C) and can break below August 7 low (1.26). The stock however needs to break below 1.26 to confirm the bearish view and avoid a double correction in wave (B).
Down from September 16, 2019 high (2.17), wave ((i)) ended at 1.92 and wave ((ii)) ended at 2.15. The stock then extends lower with separation in wave ((iii)) towards 1.58 and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 1.68. Internal of wave ((iii)) subdivided into another impulse in lesser degree.

Wave ((v)) is currently in progress as a diagonal and expected to complete soon. The 5 waves impulsive move lower should complete wave 1 in higher degree. The stock should then bounce in wave 2 to correct cycle from Sept 16 high (2.17) before the decline resumes. Bounce should find sellers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside as far as pivot at 2.17 high stays intact. Assuming the stock can break below 1.26 in the next move lower, potential target to the downside is 61.8 – 76.4 fibonacci extension of wave (A)-(B) towards as low as 0.39 – 0.73.

CHK 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: IBEX Ended Impulsive Rally

Short term Elliott Wave view on IBEX calls the rally from August 15, 2019 low (8405.39) as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 8405.3, wave ((i)) ended at 8806.4 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 8592.70. Index then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 9123.9, wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 8964, and wave ((v)) ended at 9208.90. As the chart below shows, the internal of wave ((i)), ((iii)) and ((v)) also show 5 waves impulsive structure in lesser degree. This illustrates the fractal nature of Elliott Wave Principle.

The 5 waves move from 8405.39 ended wave 1 in larger degree. Index should now pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from August 15, 2019 low before the rally resumes. Pullback should find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside as far as pivot at 8405.39 low stays intact.

IBEX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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The TLT Longer Term Cycles and Elliott Wave Analysis
September 23, 2019 By EWF Lewis (Edit)
The TLT Longer Term Cycles and Elliott Wave Analysis
Firstly the ETF fund TLT inception date was on July 22, 2002. This instrument seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of or in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities twenty years or more remaining. There is a lack of data before July 22, 2002. This is established. This article will focus on the larger uptrend cycle from there which is presumed finished a cycle higher from those lows in wave ((a)) in July 2016. The pullback from that high appeared to be an Elliott wave zig zag structure in three waves into the November 2018 wave ((b)) lows.
The analysis continues below the monthly chart.

Secondly: The aforementioned pullback lower in the monthly chart wave ((b)) was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the all time lows. Thus it ended that cycle. From those November 2018 lows the instrument has made another high above the July 2016 highs creating a bullish sequence. This sequence higher from the November 2018 lows appears to be incomplete. On the weekly chart shown below, Elliott wave corrective sequences are in either three, seven or eleven swings. Impulses are in either five, nine or thirteen swings. It is obvious the three swings lower the July 2016 highs into the October 2018 lows were of three swings.
The analysis continues and concludes below the weekly chart.

Thirdly and in conclusion the cycle up from the October 2018 lows appears to be an impulse that is incomplete. The pullback to the 136.54 lows on 9/13/19 is favored ended wave IV. This is due to the bounce from there being strong enough to suggest it ended the cycle lower from the wave III highs which were of three swings in a flat. The article here is how to get the proposed fifth wave target area. While above there it can see the 151.51-159.21 area in wave V before a larger pullback develops to correct the cycle up from the October 2018 lows.
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RBNZ Likely Holds Interest Rate Steady

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will have monetary policy announcement at 02.00 GMT this Wednesday. Market consensus is for the central bank to keep Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) at 1%. RBNZ has cut 50 bps last month, more than market’s expectation. Thus RBNZ is likely to wait a little bit to see the impact of their previous decision. Inflation was last reported on July 15 at 1.7% y/y, below the 2% mid-point of the 1-3% target range. Recent report of Q2 GDP is in line with central bank’s expectation.
However, global outlook remains fragile with ongoing US-China trade war, thus the bank is likely to reaffirm downside risk. Traders will look for clues from the statement to see if the central bank will have a follow-up rate cut further down the road. If conditions continue to deteriorate and global economic slowdown continues to pose downside risks for the New Zealand economy, the RBNZ maybe forced to cut again in November.
There are three possible outcomes from this Wednesday’s meeting:

1. RBNZ holds the OCR at 1% but gives a hint of possible rate cut down the line. In this case, NZDUSD may see further downside.
2. RBNZ cuts the rate by 25 bps. NZDUSD will likely selloff as the market is not expecting RBNZ to cut again this soon.
3. RBNZ holds OCR at 1% and the statement doesn’t show commitment to rate cut. In this case, NZDUSD may recover further before the bearish pressure reasserts. This option seems to be the most likely outcome as the bank wants to wait and see.

NZDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Outlook

Technically, $NZDUSD recently broke below September 3 low (0.627) and the pair shows incomplete sequence from July 19 high, favoring further downside. Near term, wave ((ii)) bounce is expected to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing and pair can resume lower as far as pivot at 0.645 high stays intact. If the central bank maintains the OCR and does not commit to any action, then the technical outlook seems to fit with the narrative of larger correction in the pair before the bearish pressure appears again.
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